5032 Lily Creek Dr · Celina, TX 76227

$454,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,646 sqft · SingleFamily · 91 Days on market

Built 2026 5,750 sqft lot $172/sqft · 19% below area Est $565k · 19% under $46/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +6.9/30.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• DSCR +1.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Introducing a sophisticated new residence at 5032 Lily Creek Drive in Aubrey, TX. This property boasts a dynamic multi-level floorplan meticulously engineered to enhance natural light and provide a seamless transition between the home's diverse living zones. Core Property Highlights: • 4 generous bedrooms, including a private owner's retreat conveniently situated on the first floor • 3 full bathrooms plus a thoughtfully placed half bath for guests and household ease • 2,646 square feet of intelligently utilized interior space spanning two levels • Expansive open-concept design that naturally integrates the kitchen, dining, and central gathering areas • Fresh construction showcasing premier craftsmanship and contemporary architectural standards Community & Location Perks: • Nestled in a family-oriented Aubrey development known for its strategic community planning • Within easy reach of local parks, providing immediate access to green spaces and outdoor leisure • Ideally positioned for those seeking a tranquil residential atmosphere without sacrificing convenience The heart of the home is defined by its fluid social spaces, offering a versatile backdrop for both quiet family evenings and large-scale hosting. While the main-floor primary suite serves as a secluded sanctuary, the upper story houses additional bedrooms and flexible living areas—perfectly suited for a secondary lounge, a spacious g. .. MLS# 21212161

Key facts

• Move-in-ready home
• Fresh construction
• 5,750 sq ft lot

Tags

• MULTI-LEVEL FLOORPLAN
• EXPANSIVE OPEN-CONCEPT DESIGN
• FRESH CONSTRUCTION
• MAIN-FLOOR PRIMARY SUITE
• FLEXIBLE LIVING AREAS
• MOVE-IN-READY HOME

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $455k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-682 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $356k (21.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $318k (30.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $318k (30.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 2.8% in Celina — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#450 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, schools A; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Prosper ISD (rural): math 58% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #33 of 826 in TX (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.9%/yr); 1885 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($111k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 91 days — a 9% lower offer ($414k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $90k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $317,565 (30.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 91 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.50%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.42%
• DSCR: 0.71
• GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $564,802
• List price: $454,990
• Delta: -19.44%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5033 Ressina Dr	0.03mi	4/3.0	2,986 (+13%)	1mo	$529,990	$177	74
5600 Burford Ln	0.30mi	4/3.0	2,393 (-10%)	0mo	$469,960	$196	68
5533 Burford Ln	0.29mi	4/3.0	2,321 (-12%)	1mo	$494,980	$213	63
4170 Avocet Ln	0.44mi	4/3.5	2,467 (-7%)	2mo	$646,992	$262	63
4240 Avocet Ln	0.41mi	4/4.0	2,869 (+8%)	2mo	$662,562	$231	59
5718 Edward Dr	0.60mi	4/3.0	2,457 (-7%)	1mo	$443,796	$181	57
5705 Burford Ln	0.37mi	4/4.0	2,936 (+11%)	3mo	$524,940	$179	56
5713 Ferrers Dr	0.57mi	4/3.0	2,320 (-12%)	2mo	$475,579	$205	49
4525 Whitman Ave	0.60mi	4/3.5	2,965 (+12%)	2mo	$579,990	$196	46
5825 Edward Dr	0.69mi	4/3.0	2,941 (+11%)	2mo	$455,563	$155	45
5800 Edward Dr	0.62mi	4/2.5	3,038 (+15%)	2mo	$482,292	$159	45
5809 Edward Dr	0.65mi	4/2.5	3,038 (+15%)	0mo	$469,990	$155	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -30.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.01×
• Total profit: $-126,368
• Equity at exit: $67,840

10-year hold

• IRR: -53.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.58×
• Total profit: $-201,592
• Equity at exit: $39,339

Cash invested: $127,397 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76227

• Home prices YoY: -19.0%
• Rents YoY: -1.9%
• Active inventory: 1885
• Price-to-rent: 11.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,176 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,386
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$569 /mo · $6,825/yr
• Insurance: −$190
• HOA: −$46
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$667
• Net cashflow: $-682

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,038

Max offer price $356,366

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $113,748
• Closing costs: $13,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5816 Pensby Dr Aubrey, TX	4.0	2.5	2369	$2,600	$1.10	18d	1	0.43mi
5809 Sandown Dr Aubrey, TX	4.0	3.0	2222	$2,700	$1.22	43d	1	0.44mi
5905 Rostherne Dr Aubrey, TX	4.0	2.0	2007	$2,250	$1.12	43d	1	0.51mi
5913 Pensby Dr Aubrey, TX	4.0	2.5	2959	$2,900	$0.98	20d	1	0.52mi
4532 Weston Creek Ct Celina, TX	4.0	3.5	2558	$2,895	$1.13	24d	1	0.62mi
4532 Westminster Ave Aubrey, TX	4.0	3.5	2558	$2,895	$1.13	24d	1	0.62mi
1291 Crescent Ln Prosper, TX	5.0	4.5	3355	$4,700	$1.40	43d	1	0.65mi
4523 Westminster Ave Aubrey, TX	4.0	3.5	2602	$2,900	$1.11	5d	1	0.66mi
6020 Halton Dr Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1900	$2,150	$1.13	18d	1	0.74mi
4713 London Ave Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.5	2429	$2,750	$1.13	43d	1	0.76mi
6122 Heron Dr Aubrey, TX	4.0	3.0	2069	$2,300	$1.11	7d	1	0.81mi
6125 Hightower St Aubrey, TX	4.0	3.0	2119	$2,495	$1.18	12d	1	0.84mi
6133 Hightower St Aubrey, TX	4.0	2.0	2010	$2,200	$1.09	4d	1	0.86mi
4320 Sandhills Ln Prosper, TX	5.0	4.0	3413	$4,997	$1.46	1d	1	0.86mi
4211 Mill Pond Dr Prosper, TX	4.0	4.5	3748	$5,000	$1.33	24d	1	0.86mi
6233 Lassen Ct Aubrey, TX	4.0	3.0	2080	$2,550	$1.23	12d	1	0.86mi
4261 Sandhills Ln Prosper, TX	5.0	4.0	3467	$4,900	$1.41	1d	1	0.90mi
6224 Heron Dr Aubrey, TX	4.0	3.0	2357	$2,760	$1.17	12d	1	0.90mi
4805 Cleves Ave Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	2018	$2,450	$1.21	43d	1	0.90mi
5237 Sandrine Ave Aubrey, TX	4.0	3.0	2080	$2,450	$1.18	43d	1	0.91mi
6214 Halton Dr Aubrey, TX	4.0	2.0	2050	$2,349	$1.15	44d	1	0.91mi
4130 Sandhills Ln Prosper, TX	5.0	4.0	3467	$4,650	$1.34	43d	1	0.94mi
4511 Durst Ln Prosper, TX	3.0	2.5	1900	$4,099	$2.16	1d	1	0.94mi
1000 Adair Rd Prosper, TX	4.0	4.0	3589	$4,800	$1.34	17d	1	0.95mi
1000 Adair Rd Prosper, TX	4.0	4.0	3589	$5,000	$1.39	44d	1	0.95mi
4131 Sandhills Ln Prosper, TX	5.0	5.5	3629	$5,000	$1.38	20d	1	0.96mi
3870 Verona St Prosper, TX	4.0	4.5	3510	$5,500	$1.57	24d	1	0.99mi
3870 Verona St Prosper, TX	4.0	4.5	3510	$5,500	$1.57	22d	1	0.99mi
4525 Conrad Ave Aubrey, TX	4.0	4.0	2439	$2,950	$1.21	16d	1	1.00mi
4211 Walnut Grove Ln Prosper, TX	5.0	4.5	3451	$5,200	$1.51	24d	1	1.05mi
6334 Yorkdale St Aubrey, TX	4.0	2.5	2799	$2,740	$0.98	18d	1	1.06mi
6229 Bracken DR Celina, TX	5.0	2.5	2650	$3,200	$1.21	2d	1	1.20mi
6217 Bracken Dr Aubrey, TX	4.0	2.0	2124	$2,449	$1.15	18d	1	1.21mi
6236 Ballenger Rd Aubrey, TX	4.0	3.0	2642	$2,695	$1.02	43d	1	1.27mi
4080 Freeman Way Prosper, TX	4.0	4.5	3706	$5,500	$1.48	43d	1	1.29mi
1925 Trace Dr Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1989	$2,395	$1.20	43d	1	1.30mi
4351 Mill Branch Dr Prosper, TX	4.0	4.5	3713	$6,500	$1.75	11d	1	1.39mi
3926 Stars St Prosper, TX	5.0	3.0	2513	$3,250	$1.29	17d	1	1.45mi
1806 Aslynn Cir Aubrey, TX	4.0	3.5	2098	$2,900	$1.38	24d	1	1.49mi
15609 Governors Island Way Prosper, TX	3.0	2.0	1942	$3,495	$1.80	43d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $46 · $552/yr

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $454,990 Active 91 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on market $454,990 Active 90 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $459,990 Active 89 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $459,990 Active 88 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $459,990 Active 86 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $469,990 Active 82 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $469,990 Active 81 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $469,990 Active 80 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $469,990 Active 77 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $469,990 Active 76 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $469,990 Active 75 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $469,990 Active 74 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $469,990 Active 73 DOM
14. 2026-05-08
    price $474,990 1486-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1486 chars)

    Introducing a sophisticated new residence at 5032 Lily Creek Drive in Aubrey, TX. This property boasts a dynamic multi-level floorplan meticulously engineered to enhance natural light and provide a seamless transition between the home's diverse living zones. Core Property Highlights: • 4 generous bedrooms, including a private owner's retreat conveniently situated on the first floor • 3 full bathrooms plus a thoughtfully placed half bath for guests and household ease • 2,646 square feet of intelligently utilized interior space spanning two levels • Expansive open-concept design that naturally integrates the kitchen, dining, and central gathering areas • Fresh construction showcasing premier craftsmanship and contemporary architectural standards Community & Location Perks: • Nestled in a family-oriented Aubrey development known for its strategic community planning • Within easy reach of local parks, providing immediate access to green spaces and outdoor leisure • Ideally positioned for those seeking a tranquil residential atmosphere without sacrificing convenience The heart of the home is defined by its fluid social spaces, offering a versatile backdrop for both quiet family evenings and large-scale hosting. While the main-floor primary suite serves as a secluded sanctuary, the upper story houses additional bedrooms and flexible living areas—perfectly suited for a secondary lounge, a spacious g. .. MLS# 21212161

15. 2026-05-06
    price $474,990 1634-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1634 chars)

    Introducing a sophisticated new residence at 5032 Lily Creek Drive in Aubrey, TX. This property boasts a dynamic multi-level floorplan meticulously engineered to enhance natural light and provide a seamless transition between the home's diverse living zones. Property Highlights: • 4 generous bedrooms, including a private owner’s retreat conveniently situated on the first floor • 3 full bathrooms plus a thoughtfully placed half bath for guests and household ease • Expansive open-concept design that naturally integrates the kitchen, dining, and central gathering areas • Fresh construction showcasing premier craftsmanship and contemporary architectural standards Community & Location Perks: • Nestled in a family-oriented Aubrey development known for its strategic community planning • Within easy reach of local parks, providing immediate access to green spaces and outdoor leisure • Ideally positioned for those seeking a tranquil residential atmosphere without sacrificing convenience The heart of the home is defined by its fluid social spaces, offering a versatile backdrop for both quiet family evenings and large-scale hosting. While the main-floor primary suite serves as a secluded sanctuary, the upper story houses additional bedrooms and flexible living areas—perfectly suited for a secondary lounge, a spacious guest wing, or a professional home office setup. Blending modern functionality with elegant design, this move-in-ready home delivers a polished environment tailored for the demands of today’s lifestyle. Schedule your visit today!

16. 2026-04-23
    price $479,990 1486-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1486 chars)

    Introducing a sophisticated new residence at 5032 Lily Creek Drive in Aubrey, TX. This property boasts a dynamic multi-level floorplan meticulously engineered to enhance natural light and provide a seamless transition between the home's diverse living zones. Core Property Highlights: • 4 generous bedrooms, including a private owner's retreat conveniently situated on the first floor • 3 full bathrooms plus a thoughtfully placed half bath for guests and household ease • 2,646 square feet of intelligently utilized interior space spanning two levels • Expansive open-concept design that naturally integrates the kitchen, dining, and central gathering areas • Fresh construction showcasing premier craftsmanship and contemporary architectural standards Community & Location Perks: • Nestled in a family-oriented Aubrey development known for its strategic community planning • Within easy reach of local parks, providing immediate access to green spaces and outdoor leisure • Ideally positioned for those seeking a tranquil residential atmosphere without sacrificing convenience The heart of the home is defined by its fluid social spaces, offering a versatile backdrop for both quiet family evenings and large-scale hosting. While the main-floor primary suite serves as a secluded sanctuary, the upper story houses additional bedrooms and flexible living areas—perfectly suited for a secondary lounge, a spacious g. .. MLS# 21212161

17. 2026-04-22
    price $479,990 1634-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1634 chars)

    Introducing a sophisticated new residence at 5032 Lily Creek Drive in Aubrey, TX. This property boasts a dynamic multi-level floorplan meticulously engineered to enhance natural light and provide a seamless transition between the home's diverse living zones. Property Highlights: • 4 generous bedrooms, including a private owner’s retreat conveniently situated on the first floor • 3 full bathrooms plus a thoughtfully placed half bath for guests and household ease • Expansive open-concept design that naturally integrates the kitchen, dining, and central gathering areas • Fresh construction showcasing premier craftsmanship and contemporary architectural standards Community & Location Perks: • Nestled in a family-oriented Aubrey development known for its strategic community planning • Within easy reach of local parks, providing immediate access to green spaces and outdoor leisure • Ideally positioned for those seeking a tranquil residential atmosphere without sacrificing convenience The heart of the home is defined by its fluid social spaces, offering a versatile backdrop for both quiet family evenings and large-scale hosting. While the main-floor primary suite serves as a secluded sanctuary, the upper story houses additional bedrooms and flexible living areas—perfectly suited for a secondary lounge, a spacious guest wing, or a professional home office setup. Blending modern functionality with elegant design, this move-in-ready home delivers a polished environment tailored for the demands of today’s lifestyle. Schedule your visit today!

18. 2026-04-16
    price $484,990 1486-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1486 chars)

    Introducing a sophisticated new residence at 5032 Lily Creek Drive in Aubrey, TX. This property boasts a dynamic multi-level floorplan meticulously engineered to enhance natural light and provide a seamless transition between the home's diverse living zones. Core Property Highlights: • 4 generous bedrooms, including a private owner's retreat conveniently situated on the first floor • 3 full bathrooms plus a thoughtfully placed half bath for guests and household ease • 2,646 square feet of intelligently utilized interior space spanning two levels • Expansive open-concept design that naturally integrates the kitchen, dining, and central gathering areas • Fresh construction showcasing premier craftsmanship and contemporary architectural standards Community & Location Perks: • Nestled in a family-oriented Aubrey development known for its strategic community planning • Within easy reach of local parks, providing immediate access to green spaces and outdoor leisure • Ideally positioned for those seeking a tranquil residential atmosphere without sacrificing convenience The heart of the home is defined by its fluid social spaces, offering a versatile backdrop for both quiet family evenings and large-scale hosting. While the main-floor primary suite serves as a secluded sanctuary, the upper story houses additional bedrooms and flexible living areas—perfectly suited for a secondary lounge, a spacious g. .. MLS# 21212161

19. 2026-04-15
    price $484,990 1634-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1634 chars)

    Introducing a sophisticated new residence at 5032 Lily Creek Drive in Aubrey, TX. This property boasts a dynamic multi-level floorplan meticulously engineered to enhance natural light and provide a seamless transition between the home's diverse living zones. Property Highlights: • 4 generous bedrooms, including a private owner’s retreat conveniently situated on the first floor • 3 full bathrooms plus a thoughtfully placed half bath for guests and household ease • Expansive open-concept design that naturally integrates the kitchen, dining, and central gathering areas • Fresh construction showcasing premier craftsmanship and contemporary architectural standards Community & Location Perks: • Nestled in a family-oriented Aubrey development known for its strategic community planning • Within easy reach of local parks, providing immediate access to green spaces and outdoor leisure • Ideally positioned for those seeking a tranquil residential atmosphere without sacrificing convenience The heart of the home is defined by its fluid social spaces, offering a versatile backdrop for both quiet family evenings and large-scale hosting. While the main-floor primary suite serves as a secluded sanctuary, the upper story houses additional bedrooms and flexible living areas—perfectly suited for a secondary lounge, a spacious guest wing, or a professional home office setup. Blending modern functionality with elegant design, this move-in-ready home delivers a polished environment tailored for the demands of today’s lifestyle. Schedule your visit today!

20. 2026-03-20
    price $499,990 1486-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1486 chars)

    Introducing a sophisticated new residence at 5032 Lily Creek Drive in Aubrey, TX. This property boasts a dynamic multi-level floorplan meticulously engineered to enhance natural light and provide a seamless transition between the home's diverse living zones. Core Property Highlights: • 4 generous bedrooms, including a private owner's retreat conveniently situated on the first floor • 3 full bathrooms plus a thoughtfully placed half bath for guests and household ease • 2,646 square feet of intelligently utilized interior space spanning two levels • Expansive open-concept design that naturally integrates the kitchen, dining, and central gathering areas • Fresh construction showcasing premier craftsmanship and contemporary architectural standards Community & Location Perks: • Nestled in a family-oriented Aubrey development known for its strategic community planning • Within easy reach of local parks, providing immediate access to green spaces and outdoor leisure • Ideally positioned for those seeking a tranquil residential atmosphere without sacrificing convenience The heart of the home is defined by its fluid social spaces, offering a versatile backdrop for both quiet family evenings and large-scale hosting. While the main-floor primary suite serves as a secluded sanctuary, the upper story houses additional bedrooms and flexible living areas—perfectly suited for a secondary lounge, a spacious g. .. MLS# 21212161

21. 2026-03-19
    price $499,990 1634-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1634 chars)

    Introducing a sophisticated new residence at 5032 Lily Creek Drive in Aubrey, TX. This property boasts a dynamic multi-level floorplan meticulously engineered to enhance natural light and provide a seamless transition between the home's diverse living zones. Property Highlights: • 4 generous bedrooms, including a private owner’s retreat conveniently situated on the first floor • 3 full bathrooms plus a thoughtfully placed half bath for guests and household ease • Expansive open-concept design that naturally integrates the kitchen, dining, and central gathering areas • Fresh construction showcasing premier craftsmanship and contemporary architectural standards Community & Location Perks: • Nestled in a family-oriented Aubrey development known for its strategic community planning • Within easy reach of local parks, providing immediate access to green spaces and outdoor leisure • Ideally positioned for those seeking a tranquil residential atmosphere without sacrificing convenience The heart of the home is defined by its fluid social spaces, offering a versatile backdrop for both quiet family evenings and large-scale hosting. While the main-floor primary suite serves as a secluded sanctuary, the upper story houses additional bedrooms and flexible living areas—perfectly suited for a secondary lounge, a spacious guest wing, or a professional home office setup. Blending modern functionality with elegant design, this move-in-ready home delivers a polished environment tailored for the demands of today’s lifestyle. Schedule your visit today!

22. 2026-03-19
    listed $545,250 Active 1634-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1634 chars)

    Introducing a sophisticated new residence at 5032 Lily Creek Drive in Aubrey, TX. This property boasts a dynamic multi-level floorplan meticulously engineered to enhance natural light and provide a seamless transition between the home's diverse living zones. Property Highlights: • 4 generous bedrooms, including a private owner’s retreat conveniently situated on the first floor • 3 full bathrooms plus a thoughtfully placed half bath for guests and household ease • Expansive open-concept design that naturally integrates the kitchen, dining, and central gathering areas • Fresh construction showcasing premier craftsmanship and contemporary architectural standards Community & Location Perks: • Nestled in a family-oriented Aubrey development known for its strategic community planning • Within easy reach of local parks, providing immediate access to green spaces and outdoor leisure • Ideally positioned for those seeking a tranquil residential atmosphere without sacrificing convenience The heart of the home is defined by its fluid social spaces, offering a versatile backdrop for both quiet family evenings and large-scale hosting. While the main-floor primary suite serves as a secluded sanctuary, the upper story houses additional bedrooms and flexible living areas—perfectly suited for a secondary lounge, a spacious guest wing, or a professional home office setup. Blending modern functionality with elegant design, this move-in-ready home delivers a polished environment tailored for the demands of today’s lifestyle. Schedule your visit today!

23. 2026-03-05
    price $544,990 1486-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1486 chars)

    Introducing a sophisticated new residence at 5032 Lily Creek Drive in Aubrey, TX. This property boasts a dynamic multi-level floorplan meticulously engineered to enhance natural light and provide a seamless transition between the home's diverse living zones. Core Property Highlights: • 4 generous bedrooms, including a private owner's retreat conveniently situated on the first floor • 3 full bathrooms plus a thoughtfully placed half bath for guests and household ease • 2,646 square feet of intelligently utilized interior space spanning two levels • Expansive open-concept design that naturally integrates the kitchen, dining, and central gathering areas • Fresh construction showcasing premier craftsmanship and contemporary architectural standards Community & Location Perks: • Nestled in a family-oriented Aubrey development known for its strategic community planning • Within easy reach of local parks, providing immediate access to green spaces and outdoor leisure • Ideally positioned for those seeking a tranquil residential atmosphere without sacrificing convenience The heart of the home is defined by its fluid social spaces, offering a versatile backdrop for both quiet family evenings and large-scale hosting. While the main-floor primary suite serves as a secluded sanctuary, the upper story houses additional bedrooms and flexible living areas—perfectly suited for a secondary lounge, a spacious g. .. MLS# 21212161

24. 2026-02-14
    listed $545,250 Active 1486-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1486 chars)

    Introducing a sophisticated new residence at 5032 Lily Creek Drive in Aubrey, TX. This property boasts a dynamic multi-level floorplan meticulously engineered to enhance natural light and provide a seamless transition between the home's diverse living zones. Core Property Highlights: • 4 generous bedrooms, including a private owner's retreat conveniently situated on the first floor • 3 full bathrooms plus a thoughtfully placed half bath for guests and household ease • 2,646 square feet of intelligently utilized interior space spanning two levels • Expansive open-concept design that naturally integrates the kitchen, dining, and central gathering areas • Fresh construction showcasing premier craftsmanship and contemporary architectural standards Community & Location Perks: • Nestled in a family-oriented Aubrey development known for its strategic community planning • Within easy reach of local parks, providing immediate access to green spaces and outdoor leisure • Ideally positioned for those seeking a tranquil residential atmosphere without sacrificing convenience The heart of the home is defined by its fluid social spaces, offering a versatile backdrop for both quiet family evenings and large-scale hosting. While the main-floor primary suite serves as a secluded sanctuary, the upper story houses additional bedrooms and flexible living areas—perfectly suited for a secondary lounge, a spacious g. .. MLS# 21212161

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,108
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,487
• − Property taxes: −$6,825
• − Insurance: −$2,275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,049
• − Management: −$3,049
• − HOA: −$552
• − Depreciation: −$13,236
• Taxable loss: −$16,364
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,927
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,252/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Prosper ISD
• NCES district ID: 4836000
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $107,993
• Composite: 55.79/100
• National rank: #1212
• State rank: #33 of 826 in TX

Livability — Celina

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #450
• US rank: #9135

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Celina, TX
• County: Denton County · 901,654 people
• City population: 34,260
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 62,127
• Household income: $111,402
• Rent vs Own: 22.6% rent · 77.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 959.0

Population outlook (Denton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,053,010 people
• By 2030: 1,192,269 · +13.2%
• By 2040: 1,472,920 · +39.9%
• By 2050: 1,746,506 · +65.9%
• By 2075: 2,358,497 · +124.0%
• By 2100: 2,779,183 · +163.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Black 19% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 13% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Denton

• 2024 margin: R (+13.2) · D 42.7% · R 55.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.0pp toward D · 2008: -24.2pp · 2024: -13.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.2 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+20.2 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+24.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -59.76%
• Current HPI: 254.2895
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.88%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-12.9% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $474,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $474,990 NTREIS
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $479,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $479,990 NTREIS
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $484,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $484,990 NTREIS
• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $499,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-19 Price Changed $499,990 NTREIS
• 2026-03-19 Listed $545,250 NTREIS
• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $544,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-14 Listed $545,250 Zillow