237 Brown St · Cumberland, KY 40823

$60,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 888 sqft · SingleFamily · 205 Days on market

Built 1975 7,840 sqft lot $68/sqft · at area comps Est $62k · at est.

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.8/10.0
• ARV discount +8.7/15.0
• Appreciation +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

237 Brown Street is located at the end of dead end street just minutes from downtown Cumberland. It is a 3 bedroom, 1 bath manufactured home. Parking under a covered carport. A part of this property is a large garage where the owner worked from as a mechanic for many years. The garage is up the hill behind the house and is accessible from Russell Drive. Needs some TLC but priced to allow you to do that!

Key facts

• Large garage
• Covered carport
• Dead end street

Tags

• DEAD END STREET
• COVERED CARPORT
• LARGE GARAGE
• ACCESSIBLE FROM RUSSELL DRIVE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $60k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $285 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($886 rent vs $60k).
• Recommended offer: $53k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#263 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Harlan County (rural): math 16% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #149 of 165 in KY (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 17 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.7%/yr); year-one equity from $415 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harlan County population projected at -34% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-2.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 205 days — a 12% lower offer ($53k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $52,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 205 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.48% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.35%
• DSCR: 1.91
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $61,587
• List price: $60,000
• Delta: -2.58%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
103 State Sq	0.44mi	2/1.0 (-1)	901 (+2%)	10mo	$40,000	$44	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.72% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.54×
• Total profit: $9,153
• Equity at exit: $9,706

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.91×
• Total profit: $32,006
• Equity at exit: $6,503

Cash invested: $16,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40823

• Home prices YoY: -1.4%
• Active inventory: 17
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $886 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$315
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$75 /mo · $900/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$186
• Net cashflow: $285

Break-even live

Break-even rent $525

Max offer price $60,000

Occupancy floor 63%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $326	-5% $306	+0% $285	+5% $264	+10% $243
Rent	-10% $215	-5% $250	+0% $285	+5% $320	+10% $355
Rate	-1.0pp $315	-0.5pp $300	base $285	+0.5pp $269	+1.0pp $254

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $15,000
• Closing costs: $1,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $60,000 Active 205 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $60,000 Active 204 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $60,000 Active 203 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $60,000 Active 202 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $60,000 Active 200 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $60,000 Active 196 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $60,000 Active 195 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $60,000 Active 194 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $60,000 Active 190 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $60,000 Active 189 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $60,000 Active 188 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $60,000 Active 187 DOM
13. 2026-05-05
    status Active 406-char remark

    Show marketing remark (406 chars)

    237 Brown Street is located at the end of dead end street just minutes from downtown Cumberland. It is a 3 bedroom, 1 bath manufactured home. Parking under a covered carport. A part of this property is a large garage where the owner worked from as a mechanic for many years. The garage is up the hill behind the house and is accessible from Russell Drive. Needs some TLC but priced to allow you to do that!

14. 2026-03-31
    historical 406-char remark

    Show marketing remark (406 chars)

    237 Brown Street is located at the end of dead end street just minutes from downtown Cumberland. It is a 3 bedroom, 1 bath manufactured home. Parking under a covered carport. A part of this property is a large garage where the owner worked from as a mechanic for many years. The garage is up the hill behind the house and is accessible from Russell Drive. Needs some TLC but priced to allow you to do that!

15. 2025-10-22
    listed $60,000 Active 406-char remark

    Show marketing remark (406 chars)

    237 Brown Street is located at the end of dead end street just minutes from downtown Cumberland. It is a 3 bedroom, 1 bath manufactured home. Parking under a covered carport. A part of this property is a large garage where the owner worked from as a mechanic for many years. The garage is up the hill behind the house and is accessible from Russell Drive. Needs some TLC but priced to allow you to do that!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥92°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,626
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,361
• − Property taxes: −$900
• − Insurance: −$300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$850
• − Management: −$850
• − Depreciation: −$1,745
• Taxable income: $2,620
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$629
• After-tax cash flow: $2,790/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harlan County
• NCES district ID: 2102540
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -26.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -24.00%
• Median HH income: $26,283
• Composite: 20.13/100
• National rank: #8642
• State rank: #149 of 165 in KY

Livability — Cumberland

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #263
• US rank: #12948

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cumberland, KY
• Population (ZIP): 3,907

Population outlook (Harlan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,324 people
• By 2030: 22,492 · -7.5%
• By 2040: 19,052 · -21.7%
• By 2050: 16,060 · -34.0%
• By 2075: 10,525 · -56.7%
• By 2100: 6,933 · -71.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 5% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Estonian 3% Romanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Harlan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+76.2) · D 11.6% · R 87.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.0pp toward R · 2008: -46.2pp · 2024: -76.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+76.2 2020: R+71.8 2016: R+72.2 2012: R+64.0 2008: R+46.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.72%
• Current HPI: 191.1023
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Relisted — ImagineMLS
• 2026-03-31 Listing Removed — ImagineMLS
• 2025-10-22 Listed $60,000 ImagineMLS