12726 Lake Forest Dr #25 · La Mirada, CA 90638

$275,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured · 408 Days on market

Built 1976 Average condition $191/sqft · at area comps Est $275k · at est. ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.9/30.0
• DSCR +9.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.3/10.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Senior Park community, featuring a Large Clubhouse Overlooking our Beautiful Lake Entrance. This 2 Bed 2 Bath home features a large living room, larger family room open to the beautiful kitchen with a butcher block island, large master bed and bathroom, and an additional bonus room. Outside features a small front and back covered patios, newer roof, newer exterior paint, close to the clubhouse, pool and lake. This is a must see!

Key facts

• Newer roof
• Pool and lake
• Butcher block island

Tags

• BUTCHER BLOCK ISLAND
• NEWER ROOF
• NEWER EXTERIOR PAINT
• CLOSE TO THE CLUBHOUSE
• POOL AND LAKE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $275k. Condition is rated average.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $765 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $275k).
• Recommended offer: $242k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 2.4% in La Mirada — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#149 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, commute A, schools B; Watch: health & safety D, cost of living F.
• Norwalk-La Mirada Unified (suburban): math 28% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #177 of 517 in CA (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.1%/yr); 52 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 19,697 units permitted in Los Angeles County in 2024 (9,426 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($110k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Los Angeles County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.1% rent growth), your $77k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 408 days — a 12% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $242,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 408 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.92%
• DSCR: 1.53
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $275,000
• List price: $275,000
• Delta: —
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12921 Lake Frst #35	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	10mo	$260,000	$181	88
14006 Lake Glen Dr #48	0.14mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	15mo	$330,000	$229	82
14010 Lake Glen Dr #47	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	16mo	$359,500	$250	80
14046 Lake Crest Dr #76	0.04mi	2/2.0	1,536 (+7%)	9mo	$180,000	$117	79
14041 Lake Side Dr #130	0.03mi	2/2.0	1,632 (+13%)	0mo	$295,000	$181	76
14044 Lake Glen Dr #38	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-13%)	0mo	$275,000	$220	74
14020 Lake Glen Dr #45	0.12mi	2/2.0	1,638 (+14%)	9mo	$245,000	$150	64
14038 Lake Glen Dr #40	0.11mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,354 (-6%)	22mo	$325,000	$240	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.07% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.19×
• Total profit: $14,937
• Equity at exit: $41,003

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.60×
• Total profit: $122,877
• Equity at exit: $23,777

Cash invested: $77,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 90638

• Rents YoY: 6.1%
• Active inventory: 52
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,374 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$344 /mo · $4,125/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$708
• Net cashflow: $765

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,406

Max offer price $275,000

Occupancy floor 72%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,750
• Closing costs: $8,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12202 Colima Rd Whittier, CA	3.0	2.0	1224	$4,000	$3.27	10d	1	0.45mi
13857 Leffingwell Rd Whittier, CA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1100	$2,990	$2.72	1d	1	0.54mi
13987 Coteau Dr #10 Whittier, CA	3.0	2.0	1426	$3,250	$2.28	16d	1	0.62mi
14130 Bay St La Mirada, CA	3.0	3.5	1460	$3,950	$2.71	43d	1	0.72mi
14022 Bay St Santa Fe Springs, CA	3.0	2.5	1530	$4,100	$2.68	12d	1	0.73mi
14515 Leffingwell Rd Whittier, CA	2.0	1.0	1050	$2,495	$2.38	1d	6	0.84mi
11442 Colima Rd Whittier, CA	2.0	2.0	900	$2,300	$2.56	1d	1	0.92mi
14820 Ragan Dr La Mirada, CA	3.0	2.0	1358	$3,600	$2.65	12d	1	0.92mi
14055 Honeysuckle Ln Unit 1/2 Whittier, CA	3.0	3.0	1200	$3,200	$2.67	1d	1	1.05mi
12123 Laurel Ave Whittier, CA	3.0	2.0	1238	$4,200	$3.39	1d	1	1.15mi
11622 Carmenita Rd Whittier, CA	2.0–4.0	1.0–2.5	1049	$2,935	$2.80	1d	1	1.17mi
11920 Laurel Ave Unit A Whittier, CA	3.0	1.0	1200	$3,500	$2.92	1d	1	1.20mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $275,000 Active 408 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $275,000 Active 407 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $275,000 Active 406 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $275,000 Active 405 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $275,000 Active 403 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $275,000 Active 402 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $275,000 Active 399 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $275,000 Active 398 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $275,000 Active 397 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $275,000 Active 394 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $275,000 Active 393 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $275,000 Active 392 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $275,000 Active 391 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $275,000 Active 390 DOM
15. 2025-08-14
    price $275,000 432-char remark

    Show marketing remark (432 chars)

    Senior Park community, featuring a Large Clubhouse Overlooking our Beautiful Lake Entrance. This 2 Bed 2 Bath home features a large living room, larger family room open to the beautiful kitchen with a butcher block island, large master bed and bathroom, and an additional bonus room. Outside features a small front and back covered patios, newer roof, newer exterior paint, close to the clubhouse, pool and lake. This is a must see!

16. 2025-05-06
    listed $295,000 Active 432-char remark

    Show marketing remark (432 chars)

    Senior Park community, featuring a Large Clubhouse Overlooking our Beautiful Lake Entrance. This 2 Bed 2 Bath home features a large living room, larger family room open to the beautiful kitchen with a butcher block island, large master bed and bathroom, and an additional bonus room. Outside features a small front and back covered patios, newer roof, newer exterior paint, close to the clubhouse, pool and lake. This is a must see!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,484
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,404
• − Property taxes: −$4,125
• − Insurance: −$1,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,239
• − Management: −$3,239
• − Depreciation: −$8,000
• Taxable income: $5,102
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,225
• After-tax cash flow: $7,952/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Average 55/100 Cosmetic rehab

This manufactured home is in good condition with a good roof and exterior. It has a good kitchen and hardwood floors, but the bathrooms need updating. Painting the interior and replacing fixtures would significantly increase its value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor bathroom fixtures — need updating for a modern look
• Minor kitchen backsplash — dated design

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint interior walls — enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both replace bathroom fixtures — modernizes the space and improves functionality

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
bathroom fixtures · need updating for a modern look	Minor	$500–3,000
kitchen backsplash · dated design	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$1,000–6,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint interior walls — enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both replace bathroom fixtures — modernizes the space and improves functionality ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Norwalk-La Mirada Unified
• NCES district ID: 0627690
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▲ 14.00%
• Median HH income: $65,950
• Composite: 39.62/100
• National rank: #3919
• State rank: #177 of 517 in CA

Livability — La Mirada

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #149
• US rank: #5020

Category grades

Amenities B Commute A Cost of living F Crime B Employment A+ Housing B- Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: La Mirada, CA
• County: Los Angeles County · 9,444,647 people
• City population: 45,933
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• Population (ZIP): 45,933
• Household income: $109,649
• Rent vs Own: 23.8% rent · 76.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 814.0

Population outlook (Los Angeles County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,940,515 people
• By 2030: 11,256,481 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 11,729,929 · +7.2%
• By 2050: 11,948,407 · +9.2%
• By 2075: 11,818,114 · +8.0%
• By 2100: 10,842,928 · -0.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 26% Asian 23% Two or more races 17% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 37% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 27% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 56% English-only · Spanish 25% Korean 10% Tagalog/Filipino 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Los Angeles

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+32.9) · D 64.8% · R 31.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.4pp toward R · 2008: 40.4pp · 2024: 32.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+32.9 2020: D+44.2 2016: D+48.0 2012: D+40.0 2008: D+40.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -892.51%
• Current HPI: 370.4661
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.07%
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-6.8% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-08-14 Price Changed $275,000 CRMLS
• 2025-05-06 Listed $295,000 CRMLS