55 Village Cir #1 · Manorville, NY 11949

$119,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,556 sqft · Condo · 243 Days on market

Built 1982

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +0.0/30.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

What a price for this 3 bed, 2 baths ranch-style home in the gated retirement community in a peaceful setting with a variety of activities such as billiards, shuffleboard and tennis, this 55+ pet friendly will never leave you wanting once you make it your home. fitness center, community swimming pool. Perhaps relaxation is what you desire. Then, you can simply unwind with friends and family at the scenic picnic area that is available to Greenwood residents. Local shopping, and dining opportunities abound and area beaches are not far away. There are planned activities and bus service that takes residents out shopping, to houses of worship and other destinations. Purchases must be cash only a

Key facts

• Community pool
• Built 1982
• Listed 243 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $119k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-681 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $119k).
• Recommended offer: $105k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate -0.6% vs local median 1.2% in Manorville — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#609 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Eastport-South Manor CSD (suburban): math 62% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #147 of 590 in NY (top 25%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 11% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Eastport-South Manor Junior Senior High School (math 68% / reading 61%, grade B-, #776 of 1,100 statewide, top 73%, 1,530 students, 20% FRL).
• Market conditions: 109 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $823 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 243 days — a 12% lower offer ($105k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 75% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $104,720 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 243 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.71% ✓
• Cap rate: -0.58%
• Cash-on-cash: -24.53%
• DSCR: -0.09
• GRM: 3.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -66.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.83×
• Total profit: $-61,139
• Equity at exit: $17,743

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: -2.09×
• Total profit: $-102,898
• Equity at exit: $10,289

Cash invested: $33,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11949

• Home prices YoY: -10.1%
• Active inventory: 109
• Price-to-rent: 3.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,223 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$624
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$149 /mo · $1,785/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA est. from 2 same-building comps: −$2,405
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$677
• Net cashflow: $-681

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,085

Max offer price $20,438

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,750
• Closing costs: $3,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
201 Jerusalem Hollow Rd Manorville, NY	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1485	$3,445	$2.32	1d	10	1.16mi
87 Acorn Cir Moriches, NY	2.0	2.0–2.5	1487	$4,006	$2.69	1d	8	1.26mi
20 Mirror Ln Moriches, NY	2.0	2.0–2.5	1195	$3,590	$3.00	1d	3	1.43mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Likely covers: poolgymsecurity
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 4 events

1. 2023-11-20
   status Pending
2. 2023-06-27
   status Active
3. 2023-06-20
   status Active
4. 2023-03-14
   listed $119,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,677
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,666
• − Property taxes: −$1,785
• − Insurance: −$595
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,094
• − Management: −$3,094
• − HOA: −$28,860
• − Depreciation: −$3,462
• Taxable loss: −$8,879
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,131
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,043/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Eastport-South Manor CSD
• NCES district ID: 3600125
• Math proficiency: 62% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 69% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $91,204
• Composite: 59.55/100
• National rank: #918
• State rank: #147 of 590 in NY

Livability — Manorville

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #609
• US rank: #10990

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Manorville, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• City population: 14,563
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 14,563
• Household income: $138,864
• Rent vs Own: 13.5% rent · 86.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 218.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 7% Asian 3% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Lithuanian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Philippines
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Other Indo-European 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -43.29%
• Current HPI: 385.0598
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2023-11-20 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-06-27 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-06-20 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-03-14 Listed $119,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid