3502 Water Ridge Ct · Abilene, TX 79602

$247,990

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,212 sqft · SingleFamily · 68 Days on market

Built 2026 3,055 sqft lot Est $215k · 16% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.4/30.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.5/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

MLS# 21132129 - Built by NHC - May 2026 completion! ~ The Navajo Plan from our Celebration Series offers a thoughtfully designed two-story layout that blends open main-level living with private bedroom suites upstairs. With 2 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and 1,212 square feet of well-planned space, this home is ideal for buyers seeking comfort, efficiency, and modern design. The main level welcomes you with a covered front porch and foyer, leading into a hallway that opens to the kitchen, dining, and family room. The kitchen features an island with breakfast bar seating and generous counter space, opening to the dining and family room for easy everyday living. A patio door off the dining and li

Key facts

• 3,055 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 2026

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $248k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $141 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $235k (5.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $233k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#142 in TX, #4,037 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, crime D, commute F.
• Abilene ISD (urban): math 32% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #575 of 826 in TX (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+33.5%/yr); 370 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 508 units permitted in Taylor County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($90k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Taylor County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $69k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 68 days — a 6% lower offer ($233k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $233,110 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 68 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.44%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $214,524
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3502 Water Ridge Ct	0.00mi	2/2.5	1,212 (0%)	0mo	$247,990	$205	100
3501 Silver Springs Ct	0.05mi	2/2.5	1,212 (0%)	1mo	$214,433	$177	97
3541 Silver Springs Ct	0.05mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,209 (-0%)	1mo	$234,490	$194	90
3502 Silver Springs Ct	0.39mi	2/2.5	1,212 (0%)	1mo	$225,490	$186	81
2948 Waterside Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,202 (-1%)	4mo	$218,000	$181	81
2913 Autumnwood Way	0.12mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,209 (-0%)	12mo	$199,990	$165	77
144 Houston Hollow St	0.15mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,209 (-0%)	11mo	$196,990	$163	76
214 Houston Hollow St	0.17mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,209 (-0%)	10mo	$209,990	$174	76
112 Houston Hollow St	0.14mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,209 (-0%)	14mo	$208,990	$173	75
3526 Silver Springs Ct	0.37mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,209 (-0%)	1mo	$234,990	$194	74
226 Sage Brush Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,209 (-0%)	17mo	$180,990	$150	72
2670 Maple St	0.52mi	2/1.0	1,080 (-11%)	3mo	$155,000	$144	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-18,758
• Equity at exit: $36,976

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.75×
• Total profit: $51,853
• Equity at exit: $21,442

Cash invested: $69,437 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79602

• Home prices YoY: -19.6%
• Rents YoY: 33.5%
• Active inventory: 370
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,348 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,300
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$310 /mo · $3,720/yr
• Insurance: −$103
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$493
• Net cashflow: $141

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,169

Max offer price $247,990

Occupancy floor 89%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,998
• Closing costs: $7,440
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1097 Lytle Creek Dr Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1456	$2,895	$1.99	13d	1	1.27mi
3749 Duke Ln Abilene, TX	2.0	1.0	925	$1,650	$1.78	7d	1	1.28mi
3933 Wake Forest Ln Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1320	$2,495	$1.89	22d	1	1.29mi
3933 Wake Forest Ln Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1320	$2,495	$1.89	20d	1	1.29mi
3601 Purdue Ln Abilene, TX	3.0	1.0	1172	$2,150	$1.83	2d	1	1.32mi
3873 Purdue Ln Abilene, TX	3.0	1.0	1027	$2,100	$2.04	13d	1	1.36mi
3674 Radcliff Rd Abilene, TX	3.0	1.5	1155	$2,000	$1.73	13d	1	1.39mi
801 S 17th St Abilene, TX	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,800	$1.50	13d	1	1.45mi
3874 Georgetown Dr Abilene, TX	2.0	1.0	888	$1,750	$1.97	13d	1	1.48mi
1709 Bandolero Rd Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1288	$4,500	$3.49	13d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-03-16
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-11
   status Active
3. 2026-02-13
   status Pending
4. 2025-12-19
   price $247,990
5. 2025-12-12
   listed $245,211 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 15% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,175
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,891
• − Property taxes: −$3,720
• − Insurance: −$1,240
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,254
• − Management: −$2,254
• − Depreciation: −$7,214
• Taxable loss: −$2,398
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$576
• After-tax cash flow: $2,268/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Abilene ISD
• NCES district ID: 4807440
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $39,782
• Composite: 27.71/100
• National rank: #6909
• State rank: #575 of 826 in TX

Livability — Abilene

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #142
• US rank: #4037

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Abilene, TX
• County: Taylor County · 136,672 people
• City population: 136,672
• Metro: Abilene, TX
• Population (ZIP): 27,425
• Household income: $89,551
• Rent vs Own: 24.3% rent · 75.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 338.0

Population outlook (Taylor County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 145,270 people
• By 2030: 150,050 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 159,417 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 168,883 · +16.3%
• By 2075: 194,436 · +33.8%
• By 2100: 203,163 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 12% Black 10% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Italian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Asian/Pacific 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Taylor

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+49.8) · D 24.6% · R 74.4% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.2pp toward R · 2008: -45.6pp · 2024: -49.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+49.8 2020: R+45.3 2016: R+51.1 2012: R+53.6 2008: R+45.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -46.04%
• Current HPI: 189.3098
• Rent YoY: ▲ 33.46%
• Metro: Abilene, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+1.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-16 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-03-11 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2026-02-13 Pending — NTREIS
• 2025-12-19 Price Changed $247,990 NTREIS
• 2025-12-12 Listed $245,211 NTREIS