Is 8659 Farm Road 115 in Scroggins, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it B with a 10.8% cap rate and $1,032/mo modeled cash flow at a $272,900 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 8659 Farm Road 115?

The modeled cap rate is 10.8% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $3,450/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

B Composite 74.49

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

Cash flow +30.0/30.0
DSCR +10.0/10.0
1% rule +7.6/10.0
Appreciation +7.6/10.0
ARV discount +7.5/15.0
Schools +4.5/10.0
Rent growth +2.5/5.0
Livability +2.5/5.0
Condition / age +2.2/5.0

$272,900

8659 Farm Road 115 · Scroggins, TX 75480

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,548 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 93 Days on market

Built 1986 Fair condition 2.02 ac lot 2-car garage $176/sqft · 51% below area

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

Escape to the peaceful charm of East Texas with this beautiful 3-bedroom, 2-bath cabin nestled on over 2 acres near the sparkling waters of Lake Cypress Springs. Surrounded by mature trees and natural beauty, this property offers the perfect blend of privacy, recreation, and country living. Inside, you'll find a warm and inviting cabin atmosphere with either two comfortable living room spaces with two bedrooms or make it three bedrooms, ideal for weekend getaways or full-time living. Step outside and enjoy plenty of room to roam, entertain, or simply relax and take in the serene surroundings.

Key facts

Spacious shop
Over 2 acres
Mature trees

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $273k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $273k).
Recommended offer: $248k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Cap rate 10.8% vs local median 0.7% in Scroggins — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
Mount Vernon ISD (town): math 49% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #251 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Mt Vernon El (math 47% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,269 of 4,322 statewide, top 30%, 610 students, 70% FRL); Mt Vernon Middle (math 52% / reading 43%, grade C-, #408 of 1,662 statewide, top 25%, 472 students, 72% FRL); Mt Vernon H S (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #591 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 489 students, 63% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 52% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: 128 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 7 units permitted in Franklin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
At $3,450/mo this rent would consume 58% of the median local household income ($71k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

In year one you build about $16k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $14k appreciation (5.1% local appreciation)).
At projected returns (5.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $76k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 93 days — a 9% lower offer ($248k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $248,339 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

It's been on market 93 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 1.26% ✓
Cap rate: 10.83%
Cash-on-cash: 16.21%
DSCR: 1.72
GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $560,706
List price: $272,900
Delta: -51.33%
Verdict: UNDERPRICED
Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
105 Llano Ct	1.28mi	3/2.0	1,514 (-2%)	3mo	$215,000	$142	55
132 King George Rd	1.42mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,512 (-2%)	0mo	$399,900	$264	54
102 King Henry Rd	1.37mi	3/2.0	1,644 (+6%)	1mo	$150,000	$91	50
150 Danyeur Ln	0.28mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,250 (-19%)	5mo	$137,000	$110	49
307 S King Lake Rd	1.45mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,554 (+0%)	13mo	$279,500	$180	43
111 King James	1.48mi	3/2.5	1,427 (-8%)	8mo	$275,000	$193	39
329 Hickory Hill Ln	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,895 (+22%)	10mo	$1,369,000	$722	39
814 King Lake Dr	1.29mi	3/1.0	1,270 (-18%)	10mo	$219,900	$173	31
506 S King Lk	1.32mi	3/1.5	1,230 (-20%)	9mo	$279,999	$228	30
398 King Club Ct	1.27mi	3/2.0	1,760 (+14%)	9mo	$469,000	$266	30
133 Lake Shore Dr	1.11mi	3/2.0	1,884 (+22%)	15mo	$839,000	$445	23
1956 Charlya	1.01mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,845 (+19%)	15mo	$825,000	$447	19

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.13% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: 27.1%
Equity multiple: 2.71×
Total profit: $130,546
Equity at exit: $156,745

10-year hold

IRR: 26.0%
Equity multiple: 5.41×
Total profit: $336,821
Equity at exit: $272,271

Cash invested: $76,412 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 5 active · 1 under contract
Months of supply: 30.0 mo (3%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $799,000 ($562/sqft)
Median days on market: 95 d
This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
ARV vs active asking: -35.6% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 75480

Home prices YoY: 2.2%
Active inventory: 128
Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $3,450 medium interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,431
Tax from tax record: −$148 /mo · $1,782/yr
Insurance: −$114
HOA: −$0
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$724
Net cashflow: $1,032

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,143

Max offer price $272,900

Occupancy floor 65%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,187	-5% $1,109	+0% $1,032	+5% $955	+10% $878
Rent	-10% $760	-5% $896	+0% $1,032	+5% $1,168	+10% $1,305
Rate	-1.0pp $1,170	-0.5pp $1,102	base $1,032	+0.5pp $961	+1.0pp $890

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $68,225
Closing costs: $8,187
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
224 Miller Rd Scroggins, TX	3.0	2.0	1485	$3,450	$2.32	139d	1	1.22mi

Property features AI

Finance

Other: Property classified as Residential — Single Family ResidenceLot is approximately 2.02 acres (will not subdivide)Other listing notes: Exclusive Right to Sell; standard listing conditions
Financial info: Listing accepts Cash, Conventional, and FHA financingSecond mortgage: NoLoan type: Treat as clear
HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

Parking: 2 covered parking spaces2-car garageDrivewayGolf cart garage
Security: No specific security features listed
Utilities: Aerobic septicRural water districtNot in a municipal utility district
Home design: Single-family residenceAttached propertyBuilt in 1986Metal roofSiding exteriorPillar/post/pier foundationFacing information not provided
Construction: Siding constructionMetal roofPillar/Post/Pier foundation
Exterior features: Covered deckCovered porch(es)Private entranceWood fencingStorage buildingWorkshop with electricity

Interior

Kitchen: Electric cooktopElectric oven
Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the main level)
Flooring: CarpetLaminate
Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
Heating & cooling: Central heatingCentral air conditioningWood-burning fireplace (1)
Interior features: Kitchen island7 total rooms1 living area1 dining areaOne-level floor plan
Laundry & utility: Utility room

Listing history 50 events

2026-09-24

days on market $272,900 Active 93 DOM
2026-09-23

days on market $272,900 Active 92 DOM
2026-09-20

days on market $272,900 Active 89 DOM
2026-09-18

days on market $272,900 Active 87 DOM
2026-09-17

days on market $272,900 Active 86 DOM
2026-09-16

days on market $272,900 Active 85 DOM
2026-09-15

pricedays on market $272,900 Active 84 DOM
2026-09-14

days on market $285,000 Active 83 DOM
2026-09-13

days on market $285,000 Active 82 DOM
2026-09-12

days on market $285,000 Active 81 DOM
2026-09-11

days on market $285,000 Active 80 DOM
2026-09-05

days on market $285,000 Active 74 DOM
2026-09-04

days on market $285,000 Active 73 DOM
2026-09-03

days on market $285,000 Active 72 DOM
2026-09-02

days on market $285,000 Active 71 DOM
2026-08-29

days on market $285,000 Active 67 DOM
2026-08-28

days on market $285,000 Active 66 DOM
2026-08-27

days on market $285,000 Active 65 DOM
2026-08-25

days on market $285,000 Active 63 DOM
2026-08-24

days on market $285,000 Active 62 DOM
2026-08-23

days on market $285,000 Active 61 DOM
2026-08-22

days on market $285,000 Active 60 DOM
2026-08-21

days on market $285,000 Active 59 DOM
2026-08-20

days on market $285,000 Active 58 DOM
2026-08-19

days on market $285,000 Active 57 DOM
2026-08-18

days on market $285,000 Active 56 DOM
2026-08-17

pricedays on market $285,000 Active 55 DOM
2026-08-16

days on market $299,500 Active 54 DOM
2026-08-15

days on market $299,500 Active 53 DOM
2026-08-15

days on market $299,500 Active 52 DOM
2026-08-13

days on market $299,500 Active 51 DOM
2026-08-12

days on market $299,500 Active 50 DOM
2026-08-11

days on market $299,500 Active 49 DOM
2026-08-10

days on market $299,500 Active 48 DOM
2026-08-09

days on market $299,500 Active 47 DOM
2026-08-08

days on market $299,500 Active 46 DOM
2026-08-07

days on market $299,500 Active 45 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $299,500 Active 44 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $299,500 Active 43 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $299,500 Active 42 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $299,500 Active 41 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $299,500 Active 38 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $299,500 Active 37 DOM
2026-07-29

days on market $299,500 Active 36 DOM
2026-07-27

days on market $299,500 Active 34 DOM
2026-07-25

days on market $299,500 Active 32 DOM
2026-07-24

days on market $299,500 Active 31 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $299,500 Active 30 DOM
2026-07-22

days on market $299,500 Active 29 DOM
2026-07-21

days on market $299,500 Active 28 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

Current annual tax: $1,782 · $148/mo
Projected year-2 tax: $4,994 · $416/mo
Expected delta: +$3,213/yr (+$268/mo · 180.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

Loading sold comps map…

Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

Loading nearby amenities…

Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $41,400
− Mortgage interest: −$15,287
− Property taxes: −$1,782
− Insurance: −$1,364
− Repairs & maintenance: −$3,312
− Management: −$3,312
− Depreciation: −$7,939
Taxable income: $8,404

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,017
After-tax cash flow: $10,370/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab Est. rehab $38,700–$69,660 screening

This property requires moderate renovations, focusing on the roof and exterior to significantly enhance its value and curb appeal.

Components & finishes AI

Roof tile · aged Flooring wood Counters marble

Deferred maintenance Est. $40,000–$120,000 screening

Major Roof (roof) — Signs of significant wear and potential structural issues
Major Windows (windows) — Visible signs of aging and potential leaks
Major Electrical (electrical) — No visible updates or modernization
Major Exterior (exterior) — Signs of weathering and potential structural issues

Repairs flagged

Major roof — Significant wear and tear
Major exterior siding — Weathered and peeling
Major paint — Peeling and uneven

Value-add opportunities

Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
Both Replace roof — Critical for structural integrity and value ↑
Both Replace HVAC system — Improves comfort and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Moderate scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 45/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Mt Vernon El F TX #1,269/4,322 Nat'l #17,359/41,679 High Mt Vernon H S D- TX #591/1,632 Nat'l #6,330/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Mount Vernon ISD
NCES district ID: 4831770
Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -6.00%
Reading proficiency: 43% ▬ 0.00%
Median HH income: $46,788
Composite: 39.19/100
National rank: #4021
State rank: #251 of 826 in TX

Livability — Scroggins

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

County: Franklin · 10,621 people
Population (ZIP): 1,787
Household income: $70,935
Rent vs Own: 5.4% rent · 94.6% own

Population outlook (Franklin County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 10,621 people
By 2030: 10,648 · +0.3%
By 2040: 10,629 · +0.1%
By 2050: 10,486 · -1.3%
By 2075: 10,038 · -5.5%
By 2100: 8,816 · -17.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 16% Hispanic / Latino 14%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
Common ancestry: Slovak 8% German 7% Romanian 4%
Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 13%

Political lean MEDSL · Franklin

2024 margin: Solid R (+68.9) · D 15.3% · R 84.2%
2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -52.5pp · 2024: -68.9pp
All cycles: 2024: R+68.9 2020: R+67.0 2016: R+67.0 2012: R+63.4 2008: R+52.5

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▲ 5.13%
Current HPI: 234.5679
Rent YoY: —
Metro: —
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

7 events — show timeline

2026-06-19 Listed $299,500 NTREIS
2012-06-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
2000-03-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
1997-08-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
1995-10-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
1983-08-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
1977-06-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,782 · +3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

Loading sold comps…