8659 Fm 115 · Scroggins, TX 75480

$252,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,548 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 11 Days on market

Built 1985 Fair condition 1-car garage $163/sqft · 37% below area Est $399k · 37% under ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.6/10.0
• Appreciation +7.6/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks

Escape to the peaceful charm of East Texas with this beautiful 3-bedroom, 2-bath cabin nestled on over 2 acres near the sparkling waters of Lake Cypress Springs. Surrounded by mature trees and natural beauty, this property offers the perfect blend of privacy, recreation, and country living. Inside, you'll find a warm and inviting cabin atmosphere with either two comfortable living room spaces with two bedrooms or make it three bedrooms, ideal for weekend getaways or full-time living. Step outside and enjoy plenty of room to roam, entertain, or simply relax and take in the serene surroundings.

Key facts

• Lake cypress springs
• Over two acres
• Garage

Tags

• LAKE CYPRESS SPRINGS
• EXTRA STORAGE BUILDING
• OVER TWO ACRES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $253k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $253k).
• Cap rate 11.6% vs local median 1.0% in Scroggins — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade A — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Mount Vernon ISD (town): math 49% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #251 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mt Vernon El (math 47% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,269 of 4,322 statewide, top 30%, 610 students, 70% FRL); Mt Vernon Middle (math 52% / reading 43%, grade C-, #408 of 1,662 statewide, top 25%, 472 students, 72% FRL); Mt Vernon H S (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #591 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 489 students, 63% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 52% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 137 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 7 units permitted in Franklin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,450/mo this rent would consume 58% of the median local household income ($71k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $13k appreciation (5.1% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (5.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $71k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $252,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.36% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.13%
• DSCR: 1.85
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $399,000
• List price: $252,900
• Delta: -36.62%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
85 SE CR 4305	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,792 (+16%)	2mo	$329,900	$184	55
150 Danyeur Ln	0.28mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,250 (-19%)	6mo	$137,000	$110	48
909 King Club Blvd	0.98mi	3/2.0	1,724 (+11%)	1mo	$718,950	$417	42
85 SE County Road Se 4305	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,792 (+16%)	18mo	$299,999	$167	41
1956 Charlya	1.01mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,845 (+19%)	16mo	$825,000	$447	18

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.13% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.86×
• Total profit: $131,977
• Equity at exit: $145,258

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.74×
• Total profit: $335,933
• Equity at exit: $252,317

Cash invested: $70,812 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 5 active · 1 under contract
• Months of supply: 15.0 mo (7%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $799,000 ($562/sqft)
• Median days on market: 120 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: -54.1% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 75480

• Home prices YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 137
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,450 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,326
• Tax from tax record: −$165 /mo · $1,980/yr
• Insurance: −$105
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$724
• Net cashflow: $1,129

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,021

Max offer price $252,900

Occupancy floor 62%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,272	-5% $1,201	+0% $1,129	+5% $1,057	+10% $986
Rent	-10% $856	-5% $993	+0% $1,129	+5% $1,265	+10% $1,401
Rate	-1.0pp $1,256	-0.5pp $1,193	base $1,129	+0.5pp $1,063	+1.0pp $997

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,225
• Closing costs: $7,587
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
224 Miller Rd Scroggins, TX	3.0	2.0	1485	$3,450	$2.32	184d	1	1.22mi

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 1-car garage
• Security: Closed-circuit cameras
• Utilities: Aerobic septic system
• Home design: Single-story single-family residence
• Construction: Frame constructionPillar/post/pier foundationComposition roof
• Exterior features: Covered porchPartial fencingStorage buildingWorkshop

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heatingCentral air conditioningCeiling fans
• Interior features: Wood-burning fireplace

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $252,900 Active 11 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $252,900 Active 10 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $252,900 Active 9 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $252,900 Active 8 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $252,900 Active 7 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $252,900 Active 5 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $252,900 Active 4 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $252,900 Active 3 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $252,900 Active 2 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    pricedays on marketlisting id $252,900 Active 1 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $272,900 Active 127 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $272,900 Active 126 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $272,900 Active 125 DOM
14. 2026-10-25
    days on market $272,900 Active 124 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $272,900 Active 123 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $272,900 Active 122 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $272,900 Active 121 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $272,900 Active 120 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $272,900 Active 119 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $272,900 Active 118 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $272,900 Active 117 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $272,900 Active 116 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $272,900 Active 115 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $272,900 Active 114 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $272,900 Active 113 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $272,900 Active 112 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $272,900 Active 111 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $272,900 Active 110 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $272,900 Active 109 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $272,900 Active 108 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $272,900 Active 107 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $272,900 Active 106 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $272,900 Active 105 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $272,900 Active 104 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $272,900 Active 103 DOM
36. 2026-10-03
    days on market $272,900 Active 102 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $272,900 Active 101 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $272,900 Active 100 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $272,900 Active 99 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $272,900 Active 98 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $272,900 Active 97 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $272,900 Active 96 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $272,900 Active 95 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $272,900 Active 94 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $272,900 Active 93 DOM
46. 2026-09-23
    days on market $272,900 Active 92 DOM
47. 2026-09-20
    days on market $272,900 Active 89 DOM
48. 2026-09-18
    days on market $272,900 Active 87 DOM
49. 2026-09-17
    days on market $272,900 Active 86 DOM
50. 2026-09-16
    days on market $272,900 Active 85 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,980 · $165/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,628 · $386/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,648/yr (+$221/mo · 133.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $41,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,166
• − Property taxes: −$1,980
• − Insurance: −$1,264
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,312
• − Management: −$3,312
• − Depreciation: −$7,357
• Taxable income: $10,009
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,402
• After-tax cash flow: $11,145/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab Est. rehab $38,700–$69,660 screening

This property requires moderate renovations, focusing on the roof and exterior to significantly enhance its value and curb appeal.

Components & finishes AI

Roof tile · aged Flooring wood Counters marble

Deferred maintenance Est. $40,000–$120,000 screening

• Major Roof (roof) — Signs of significant wear and potential structural issues
• Major Windows (windows) — Visible signs of aging and potential leaks
• Major Electrical (electrical) — No visible updates or modernization
• Major Exterior (exterior) — Signs of weathering and potential structural issues

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — Significant wear and tear
• Major exterior siding — Weathered and peeling
• Major paint — Peeling and uneven

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace roof — Critical for structural integrity and value ↑
• Both Replace HVAC system — Improves comfort and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Moderate scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 46/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Mt Vernon El F TX #1,269/4,322 Nat'l #17,359/41,679 Middle Mt Vernon Middle C- TX #408/1,662 Nat'l #4,042/14,009 High Mt Vernon H S D- TX #591/1,632 Nat'l #6,330/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mount Vernon ISD
• NCES district ID: 4831770
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $46,788
• Composite: 39.19/100
• National rank: #4021
• State rank: #251 of 826 in TX

Livability — Scroggins

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Franklin · 10,621 people
• Population (ZIP): 1,787
• Household income: $70,935
• Rent vs Own: 5.4% rent · 94.6% own

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Population outlook (Franklin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,621 people
• By 2030: 10,648 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 10,629 · +0.1%
• By 2050: 10,486 · -1.3%
• By 2075: 10,038 · -5.5%
• By 2100: 8,816 · -17.0%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 16% Hispanic / Latino 14%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 13%

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Political lean MEDSL · Franklin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+68.9) · D 15.3% · R 84.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -52.5pp · 2024: -68.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+68.9 2020: R+67.0 2016: R+67.0 2012: R+63.4 2008: R+52.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.13%
• Current HPI: 234.5679
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 1-car garage
• Security: Closed-circuit cameras
• Utilities: Aerobic septic system
• Home design: Single-story single-family residence
• Construction: Frame constructionPillar/post/pier foundationComposition roof
• Exterior features: Covered porchPartial fencingStorage buildingWorkshop

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heatingCentral air conditioningCeiling fans
• Interior features: Wood-burning fireplace

Price history

-8.9% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-10-28 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2026-09-15 Price Changed $272,900 NTREIS
• 2026-08-26 Listed $252,900 GTAR
• 2026-08-18 Price Changed $285,000 NTREIS
• 2026-06-19 Listed $299,500 NTREIS
• 2012-06-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2000-03-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1997-08-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1995-10-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1983-08-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1977-06-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,980 · +11.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.