405 N Kiesel St · Bay City, MI 48706

$155,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,307 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1900 5,663 sqft lot Est $139k · 12% over

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.7/30.0
• DSCR +7.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +2.2/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home to this fully renovated Dutch Colonial located on the West Side! Open floor concept with freshly painted neutral colors. Kitchen boasts brand new white cabinets and subway tiled backsplash! 3 bedrooms, each of good size with closet space. 2 full baths with custom tile. Full basement provides additional storage space. Home is located at the end of the street with privacy and limited traffic. Easy access to Euclid, as well as walking distance to Handy Middle School. Don’t miss out on this one! Agent has ownership in the property.

Key facts

• Fully renovated
• Large covered porch
• Gambrel roof

Tags

• GAMBREL ROOF
• LARGE COVERED PORCH
• DUTCH COLONIAL ARCHITECTURE
• HIGH CEILINGS
• CAST IRON SINK
• FULLY RENOVATED

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Natural gas; Gas water heater; Public sewer (implied by public water and typical utilities)
• Home design: Residential 2-story; Built in 1900; Facing west (side of street: W)
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Basement foundation (Michigan basement)
• Exterior features: Fenced yard; Porch; Shed (outbuilding); Paved street access

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on entry level (approx. 17 x 11); Dishwasher; Microwave; Range/Oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Bedroom 1 (Entry level) with carpet; Bedroom 2 (Second level) with carpet; Bedroom 3 (Second level) with carpet
• Flooring: Carpet in bedrooms, living and dining areas; Ceramic tile in kitchen and bathrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Entry-level bathroom with ceramic flooring (approx. 8 x 6); Second-level bathroom with ceramic flooring (approx. 11 x 5)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central A/C; Natural gas heat and gas water heater
• Interior features: Cable/internet available; DSL available; Unfinished basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Basement present (unfinished)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $266 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $155k).
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 5.5% in Bay City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#360 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities D, crime F.
• Bay City School District (urban): math 27% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #317 of 540 in MI (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 246 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 39 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask is 85% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $84k; list at $155k implies a 85% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $155,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.37%
• DSCR: 1.33
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $138,542
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
605 HANDY Dr	0.34mi	3/1.5	1,278 (-2%)	4mo	$220,000	$172	75
4551 Westfield Ct	0.43mi	3/1.0	1,380 (+6%)	1mo	$174,000	$126	66
401 E Florence St	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,248 (-4%)	4mo	$125,000	$100	66
607 W Jenny St	0.46mi	3/1.0	1,236 (-5%)	3mo	$100,000	$81	63
307 N Warner St	0.15mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,492 (+14%)	0mo	$142,000	$95	62
203 W Jenny St	0.50mi	3/2.5	1,233 (-6%)	7mo	$190,000	$154	59
312 S Barclay St	0.46mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,271 (-3%)	7mo	$160,000	$126	59
315 S Alp St	0.44mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,223 (-6%)	6mo	$130,000	$106	59
316 S Woodbridge Ave	0.53mi	3/1.0	1,418 (+8%)	2mo	$65,000	$46	56
714 Frost Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,500 (+15%)	5mo	$178,000	$119	43
811 N Walnut St	0.74mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,416 (+8%)	0mo	$130,000	$92	42
506 LITCHFIELD St	0.72mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,422 (+9%)	0mo	$119,900	$84	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-8,135
• Equity at exit: $23,111

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.34×
• Total profit: $14,829
• Equity at exit: $13,402

Cash invested: $43,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48706

• Active inventory: 246
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,675 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax from tax record: −$179 /mo · $2,153/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$352
• Net cashflow: $266

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,338

Max offer price $155,000

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,750
• Closing costs: $4,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1305 Washington Ave Bay City, MI	2.0	1.0	635	$1,675	$2.64	43d	1	1.18mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $155,000 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $155,000 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   statusdays on marketlisting id $155,000 Active 1 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $155,000 Coming Soon 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $155,000 Coming Soon 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   remarks 699-char remark
7. 2026-06-12
   listed $155,000 Coming Soon 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,153 · $179/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,270 · $189/mo
• Expected delta: +$117/yr (+$10/mo · 5.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,100
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,682
• − Property taxes: −$2,153
• − Insurance: −$775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,608
• − Management: −$1,608
• − Depreciation: −$4,509
• Taxable income: $764
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$183
• After-tax cash flow: $3,013/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay City School District
• NCES district ID: 2604260
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,833
• Composite: 28.47/100
• National rank: #6743
• State rank: #317 of 540 in MI

Livability — Bay City

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #360
• US rank: #8912

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bay City, MI
• City population: 25,635
• Population (ZIP): 38,756

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 101,476 people
• By 2030: 98,152 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 89,711 · -11.6%
• By 2050: 80,614 · -20.6%
• By 2075: 60,544 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 41,603 · -59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 16% Lithuanian 9% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: R (+14.7) · D 42.0% · R 56.7% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.0pp toward R · 2008: 15.3pp · 2024: -14.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.7 2020: R+11.6 2016: R+12.6 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -133.29%
• Current HPI: 203.6444
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+811.8% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Coming Soon $155,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2017-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $83,700 Public Records
• 2017-09-01 Sold (MLS) $83,700 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2017-07-31 Listed $83,700 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2017-04-07 Sold (MLS) $17,100 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2017-03-14 Listed $17,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,153 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.