748 Phillips Dr · Freeport, FL 32439

$378,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,255 sqft · Land · 45 Days on market

Built 2020

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.2/30.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to your private waterfront escape in the heart of Freeport. Situated on two oversized lots with approximately 210 feet of creek frontage and direct access to Choctawhatchee Bay, this 2020-built home offers the perfect blend of space, comfort, and outdoor lifestyle. Inside, you'll find over 2,200 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space featuring 4 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms. The open layout includes both a formal living room and a spacious great room complete with a fireplace and built-in entertainment center--ideal for hosting family and friends. The kitchen is a standout, featuring granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, a farmhouse sink, kitchen island, and a

Key facts

• Private dock
• Partial seawall
• Creek frontage

Tags

• WATERFRONT ESCAPE
• CREEK FRONTAGE
• DIRECT ACCESS TO BAY
• PRIVATE DOCK
• PARTIAL SEAWALL
• SERENE CREEK VIEWS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No subdivision; Community amenities include dock, fishing, TV cable, waterfront access, and short-term rentals allowed

Exterior

• Parking: No parking details provided
• Security: No security details provided
• Utilities: Community water; Private well; Septic tank; Electric service; Phone; TV cable; Electric water heater
• Home design: Manufactured home; One story; Built in 2020
• Construction: Frame construction with cement fiberboard siding; Pitched roof; Composite shingle roof; System-built; Building area reported from building plan
• Exterior features: Dock; Yard building; Partially fenced lot; Bulkhead/seawall; Within 1/2 mile to water; County road frontage, paved access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range hood
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms; Primary bedroom on the first floor with walk-in closet, separate shower and garden tub
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning; Electric heat control
• Interior features: Fireplace; Kitchen island; Pantry
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater; Utility room on the first floor

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $378k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-752 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $269k (28.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $244k (35.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $244k (35.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.1% vs local median 3.0% in Freeport — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#520 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Walton (rural): math 62% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #10 of 73 in FL (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Freeport Elementary School (math 50% / reading 57%, grade C, #949 of 2,144 statewide, top 45%, 1,123 students, 55% FRL); Freeport Senior High School (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #138 of 667 statewide, top 21%, 557 students, 43% FRL) — zoned schools at 49% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 1012 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 2,883 units permitted in Walton County in 2024 (1,322 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($83k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Walton County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($367k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $35k; list at $378k implies a 980% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $243,844 (35.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.78%
• DSCR: 0.65
• GRM: 12.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.4% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -33.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.07×
• Total profit: $-112,957
• Equity at exit: $56,361

10-year hold

• IRR: -51.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.65×
• Total profit: $-175,102
• Equity at exit: $32,683

Cash invested: $105,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32439

• Home prices YoY: -4.2%
• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 1012
• Price-to-rent: 12.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,438 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,982
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$472 /mo · $5,670/yr
• Insurance: −$158
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$512
• Net cashflow: $-752

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,391

Max offer price $269,133

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $94,500
• Closing costs: $11,340
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $378,000 Active 45 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $378,000 Active 44 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $378,000 Active 43 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $378,000 Active 42 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $378,000 Active 40 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $378,000 Active 39 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $378,000 Active 37 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $378,000 Active 36 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $378,000 Active 35 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $378,000 Active 34 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $378,000 Active 31 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $378,000 Active 30 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $378,000 Active 29 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $378,000 Active 28 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $378,000 Active 27 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $378,000 Active 26 DOM
17. 2026-05-04
    listed $378,000 Active
18. 2026-01-20
    price $389,900
19. 2026-01-20
    status Active
20. 2025-05-06
    price $429,900
21. 2025-04-13
    listed $439,900 Active
22. 2019-12-20
    soldstatus $35,000
23. 2015-05-11
    soldstatus $31,500
24. 1999-11-23
    soldstatus $65,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,261
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,174
• − Property taxes: −$5,670
• − Insurance: −$2,688
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,341
• − Management: −$2,341
• − Depreciation: −$10,996
• Taxable loss: −$15,948
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,828
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,201/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Walton
• NCES district ID: 1201980
• Math proficiency: 62% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $46,794
• Composite: 52.03/100
• National rank: #1634
• State rank: #10 of 73 in FL

Livability — Freeport

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #520
• US rank: #9579

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Walton County · 70,839 people
• City population: 15,328
• Metro: Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL
• Population (ZIP): 15,328
• Household income: $83,227
• Rent vs Own: 19.9% rent · 80.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 172.0

Population outlook (Walton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 80,014 people
• By 2030: 88,120 · +10.1%
• By 2040: 103,537 · +29.4%
• By 2050: 117,034 · +46.3%
• By 2075: 143,901 · +79.8%
• By 2100: 155,138 · +93.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 8% Native American 5% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 13% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Walton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+57.8) · D 20.7% · R 78.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.0pp toward R · 2008: -45.8pp · 2024: -57.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+57.8 2020: R+51.7 2016: R+56.1 2012: R+52.0 2008: R+45.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -15.18%
• Current HPI: 350.4692
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.40%
• Metro: Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+481.5% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Listed $378,000 ECAR
• 2026-01-20 Price Changed $389,900 ECAR
• 2026-01-20 Relisted — ECAR
• 2025-05-06 Price Changed $429,900 ECAR
• 2025-04-13 Listed $439,900 ECAR
• 2019-12-20 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records
• 2015-05-11 Sold (Public Records) $31,500 Public Records
• 1999-11-23 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $330 · +8.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.