224 Bernie Ln · Seguin, TX 78155

$109,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,173 sqft · Manufactured · 63 Days on market

Built 1998 0.33 ac lot $93/sqft · 50% below area ↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 3 bedroom, 2 bath manufactured home offers excellent potential as a family residence or investment opportunity. The property includes three additional structures: two storage sheds and a pen. On shed measures approximately 10x14 and is equipped with air conditioning, while the second 6x8 shed is ideal for lawn equipment storage. The fully fenced 0.33 acre lot provides added security and ample space for pets. HEB is only 15 minutes away! Downtown Seguin is only 6 miles away. Dollar General is only a mile down the road. Comanche Crossing (libations and entertainment) only a mile down the road. Competitively priced for a quick sale!

Key facts

• Close to heb
• Ample space for pets
• Fully fenced lot

Tags

• ADDITIONAL STRUCTURES
• STORAGE SHEDS
• FULLY FENCED LOT
• AMPLE SPACE FOR PETS
• CLOSE TO HEB
• CLOSE TO DOWNTOWN SEGUIN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $109k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $562 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $109k).
• Recommended offer: $102k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.5% vs local median 3.7% in Seguin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#592 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Seguin ISD (town): math 26% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #663 of 826 in TX (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Koennecke El (math 33% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,995 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 550 students, 73% FRL); Jim Barnes Middle (math 24% / reading 25%, grade F, #1,279 of 1,662 statewide, top 78%, 797 students, 75% FRL); Seguin H S (math 24% / reading 43%, grade F, #1,011 of 1,632 statewide, top 63%, 2,101 students, 71% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 1414 active listings in the ZIP; 2,064 units permitted in Guadalupe County in 2024 (133 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $754 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Guadalupe County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($102k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $102,460 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.44% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.11%
• DSCR: 1.98
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $220,059
• List price: $109,000
• Delta: -50.47%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
350 Parkcreek	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,064 (-9%)	7mo	$159,900	$150	72

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.04% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.54×
• Total profit: $16,629
• Equity at exit: $16,252

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.78×
• Total profit: $54,457
• Equity at exit: $9,424

Cash invested: $30,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78155

• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 1414
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,575 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$572
• Tax from tax record: −$65 /mo · $776/yr
• Insurance: −$45
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$331
• Net cashflow: $562

Break-even live

Break-even rent $863

Max offer price $109,000

Occupancy floor 59%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $624	-5% $593	+0% $562	+5% $532	+10% $501
Rent	-10% $438	-5% $500	+0% $562	+5% $625	+10% $687
Rate	-1.0pp $617	-0.5pp $590	base $562	+0.5pp $534	+1.0pp $505

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,250
• Closing costs: $3,270
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-22
   price $109,000 642-char remark

   Show marketing remark (642 chars)

   This 3 bedroom, 2 bath manufactured home offers excellent potential as a family residence or investment opportunity. The property includes three additional structures: two storage sheds and a pen. On shed measures approximately 10x14 and is equipped with air conditioning, while the second 6x8 shed is ideal for lawn equipment storage. The fully fenced 0.33 acre lot provides added security and ample space for pets. HEB is only 15 minutes away! Downtown Seguin is only 6 miles away. Dollar General is only a mile down the road. Comanche Crossing (libations and entertainment) only a mile down the road. Competitively priced for a quick sale!

2. 2026-03-24
   listed $129,000 Active 642-char remark

   Show marketing remark (642 chars)

   This 3 bedroom, 2 bath manufactured home offers excellent potential as a family residence or investment opportunity. The property includes three additional structures: two storage sheds and a pen. On shed measures approximately 10x14 and is equipped with air conditioning, while the second 6x8 shed is ideal for lawn equipment storage. The fully fenced 0.33 acre lot provides added security and ample space for pets. HEB is only 15 minutes away! Downtown Seguin is only 6 miles away. Dollar General is only a mile down the road. Comanche Crossing (libations and entertainment) only a mile down the road. Competitively priced for a quick sale!

3. 2005-05-17
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $776 · $65/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,995 · $166/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,219/yr (+$102/mo · 157.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,898
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,106
• − Property taxes: −$776
• − Insurance: −$545
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,512
• − Management: −$1,512
• − Depreciation: −$3,171
• Taxable income: $5,276
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,266
• After-tax cash flow: $5,482/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Seguin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4839690
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $46,210
• Composite: 24.17/100
• National rank: #7738
• State rank: #663 of 826 in TX

Livability — Seguin

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #592
• US rank: #11298

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Guadalupe County · 147,291 people
• City population: 55,600
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 55,600
• Household income: $71,039
• Rent vs Own: 27.5% rent · 72.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1053.0

Population outlook (Guadalupe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 196,854 people
• By 2030: 220,210 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 268,004 · +36.1%
• By 2050: 316,333 · +60.7%
• By 2075: 434,747 · +120.8%
• By 2100: 520,447 · +164.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 43% Two or more races 26% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 41%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 24% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Guadalupe

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.5) · D 34.8% · R 64.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.5pp toward D · 2008: -31.0pp · 2024: -29.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.5 2020: R+24.2 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+35.1 2008: R+31.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -147.43%
• Current HPI: 160.5435
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.04%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-15.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $109,000 CTXMLS
• 2026-03-24 Listed $129,000 CTXMLS
• 2005-05-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.8%/yr

Latest (2026): $776 · +5.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.