1421 Forest Ave · Maysville, KY 41056

$70,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,230 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 32 Days on market

Built 1910 Est $101k · 31% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.1/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.5/10.0

Listing remarks

3 bedroom 2 bath home. Great investment property. Structurally sound and huge potential to use as a rental or first time home buyer.

Key facts

• Built 1910
• Listed 31 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $293 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($917 rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $68k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.3% vs local median 4.0% in Maysville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#325 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D-, amenities F.
• Mason County (town): math 25% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #92 of 165 in KY (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 35 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 30 units permitted in Mason County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $484 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mason County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($68k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 8→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $67,900 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.31% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.95%
• DSCR: 1.80
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $100,860
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
61 Ernst Ave	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,400 (+14%)	6mo	$55,000	$39	65
508 Buckner St	0.42mi	3/1.0	1,118 (-9%)	22mo	$92,000	$82	43
906 E 6th St	0.63mi	3/1.0	1,068 (-13%)	9mo	$140,000	$131	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.37×
• Total profit: $7,311
• Equity at exit: $10,437

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.55×
• Total profit: $30,335
• Equity at exit: $6,052

Cash invested: $19,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 41056

• Home prices YoY: -4.1%
• Active inventory: 35
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $917 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$35 /mo · $421/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$193
• Net cashflow: $293

Break-even live

Break-even rent $546

Max offer price $70,000

Occupancy floor 63%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,500
• Closing costs: $2,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
425 Central Ave Maysville, KY	2.0	1.0	978	$995	$1.02	43d	1	0.49mi
616 E Front St Maysville, KY	2.0	1.0	1000	$775	$0.78	14d	1	0.91mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $70,000 Active 32 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $70,000 Active 31 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $70,000 Active 30 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $70,000 Active 29 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $70,000 Active 27 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $70,000 Active 26 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $70,000 Active 23 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $70,000 Active 22 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $70,000 Active 21 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $70,000 Active 20 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $70,000 Active 17 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $70,000 Active 16 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $70,000 Active 15 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $70,000 Active 14 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $70,000 Active 13 DOM
16. 2026-05-18
    listed $70,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $421 · $35/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $602 · $50/mo
• Expected delta: +$181/yr (+$15/mo · 42.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 8 d/yr ≥102°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,005
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,921
• − Property taxes: −$421
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$880
• − Management: −$880
• − Depreciation: −$2,036
• Taxable income: $2,516
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$604
• After-tax cash flow: $2,914/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mason County
• NCES district ID: 2103870
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $39,917
• Composite: 26.84/100
• National rank: #7109
• State rank: #92 of 165 in KY

Livability — Maysville

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #325
• US rank: #15583

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Maysville, KY
• County: Mason · 13,978 people
• Population (ZIP): 13,978
• Household income: $49,549
• Rent vs Own: 35.4% rent · 64.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 6.0

Population outlook (Mason County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 16,224 people
• By 2030: 15,618 · -3.7%
• By 2040: 14,261 · -12.1%
• By 2050: 12,858 · -20.7%
• By 2075: 9,913 · -38.9%
• By 2100: 7,142 · -56.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Black 7% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 2% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 1% Polish 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Mason

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.7) · D 27.5% · R 71.2% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.7pp toward R · 2008: -17.0pp · 2024: -43.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.7 2020: R+39.1 2016: R+41.2 2012: R+23.3 2008: R+17.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -8.98%
• Current HPI: 209.1455
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Listed $70,000 FSBO.com

Property tax history

+0.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $421 · -0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.