2015 Stark St · Saginaw, MI 48602

$74,500

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,202 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 132 Days on market

Built 1909 6,098 sqft lot Est $66k · 13% over

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• ARV discount +1.8/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Motivated Seller in Saginaw City 3-bedroom upstairs and a fourth bedroom or office on the main floor. Come check this large family home out. Very clean, lots of original woodwork. Wood floors & original wood stairway. Includes one full bath on main floor. Full basement covered front porch. Backyard is fenced in along with a 2-car garage. Kitchen flooring has been updated. Bathroom has been recently remodeled.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Wood floors
• Backyard fenced

Tags

• ORIGINAL WOODWORK
• WOOD FLOORS
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• BACKYARD FENCED
• 2-CAR GARAGE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located near W Genesee Ave and State St
• HOA & community: Homeowners association present

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 1-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One and one-half stories
• Construction: Wood siding
• Exterior features: Lot dimensions approximately 50 x 120

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Steam heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: 7 total rooms; Basement present

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $74k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $426 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $74k).
• Recommended offer: $66k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.2% vs local median 8.3% in Saginaw — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#521 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Saginaw School District (urban): math 20% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #444 of 540 in MI (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+4.0%/yr); 250 active listings in the ZIP; 154 units permitted in Saginaw County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($47k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $515 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Saginaw County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 132 days — a 12% lower offer ($66k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 14y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $10k; list at $74k implies a 610% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1909 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $65,560 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 132 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1909 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.62% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.53%
• DSCR: 2.09
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $66,110
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
815 W Genesee Ave	0.06mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,305 (+9%)	5mo	$72,000	$55	74
1420 Union Ave	0.34mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,218 (+1%)	7mo	$45,000	$37	71
2454 Durand St	0.46mi	4/1.0	1,142 (-5%)	1mo	$33,500	$29	69
2338 N Bond St	0.28mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,302 (+8%)	1mo	$77,000	$59	63
1724 State St	0.51mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,144 (-5%)	2mo	$75,000	$66	62
1923 N Oakley St	0.24mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,343 (+12%)	4mo	$20,000	$15	57
1122 Miller St	0.71mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,212 (+1%)	5mo	$26,000	$21	57
1819 Delaware St	0.49mi	4/1.0	1,334 (+11%)	3mo	$93,000	$70	56
1920 N Clinton St	0.62mi	4/2.0	1,155 (-4%)	6mo	$117,000	$101	55
2343 N Bond St	0.31mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,054 (-12%)	6mo	$44,900	$43	55
1634 Delaware St	0.53mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,084 (-10%)	7mo	$36,000	$33	48
1710 State St	0.48mi	4/2.0	1,358 (+13%)	6mo	$75,000	$55	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.78×
• Total profit: $16,306
• Equity at exit: $11,108

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.60×
• Total profit: $54,281
• Equity at exit: $6,441

Cash invested: $20,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48602

• Home prices YoY: -19.7%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 250
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,204 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$391
• Tax from tax record: −$103 /mo · $1,236/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$253
• Net cashflow: $426

Break-even live

Break-even rent $664

Max offer price $74,500

Occupancy floor 60%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,625
• Closing costs: $2,235
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $74,500 Active 132 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $74,500 Active 131 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $74,500 Active 130 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $74,500 Active 129 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $74,500 Active 128 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $74,500 Active 126 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $74,500 Active 125 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $74,500 Active 122 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $74,500 Active 121 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $74,500 Active 120 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $74,500 Active 117 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $74,500 Active 116 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $74,500 Active 115 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $74,500 Active 114 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $74,500 Active 113 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $74,500 Active 112 DOM
17. 2026-03-28
    price $74,500 418-char remark

    Show marketing remark (418 chars)

    Motivated Seller in Saginaw City 3-bedroom upstairs and a fourth bedroom or office on the main floor. Come check this large family home out. Very clean, lots of original woodwork. Wood floors & original wood stairway. Includes one full bath on main floor. Full basement covered front porch. Backyard is fenced in along with a 2-car garage. Kitchen flooring has been updated. Bathroom has been recently remodeled.

18. 2026-03-27
    price $74,500
19. 2026-02-08
    listed $79,900 Active
20. 2026-02-07
    listed $79,900 Active 418-char remark

    Show marketing remark (418 chars)

    Motivated Seller in Saginaw City 3-bedroom upstairs and a fourth bedroom or office on the main floor. Come check this large family home out. Very clean, lots of original woodwork. Wood floors & original wood stairway. Includes one full bath on main floor. Full basement covered front porch. Backyard is fenced in along with a 2-car garage. Kitchen flooring has been updated. Bathroom has been recently remodeled.

21. 2012-08-30
    soldstatus $10,500 167-char remark

    Show marketing remark (167 chars)

    4 bed rooms full basement lots of natural wood work through out the home frist floor bed room newer electrical pannel fenced yard detached garage and above ground pool

22. 2012-08-30
    soldstatus $10,500

    Show marketing remark (167 chars)

    4 bed rooms full basement lots of natural wood work through out the home frist floor bed room newer electrical pannel fenced yard detached garage and above ground pool

23. 2012-08-10
    historical 167-char remark

    Show marketing remark (167 chars)

    4 bed rooms full basement lots of natural wood work through out the home frist floor bed room newer electrical pannel fenced yard detached garage and above ground pool

24. 2012-05-18
    listed $11,400 167-char remark

    Show marketing remark (167 chars)

    4 bed rooms full basement lots of natural wood work through out the home frist floor bed room newer electrical pannel fenced yard detached garage and above ground pool

25. 2012-05-18
    listed $11,400

    Show marketing remark (167 chars)

    4 bed rooms full basement lots of natural wood work through out the home frist floor bed room newer electrical pannel fenced yard detached garage and above ground pool

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,236 · $103/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,236 · $103/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,446
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,173
• − Property taxes: −$1,236
• − Insurance: −$372
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,156
• − Management: −$1,156
• − Depreciation: −$2,167
• Taxable income: $4,186
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,005
• After-tax cash flow: $4,112/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Saginaw School District
• NCES district ID: 2630390
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $28,940
• Composite: 19.6/100
• National rank: #8755
• State rank: #444 of 540 in MI

Livability — Saginaw

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #521
• US rank: #15424

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Saginaw, MI
• County: Saginaw County · 54,884 people
• City population: 54,884
• Metro: Saginaw, MI
• Population (ZIP): 27,127
• Household income: $46,984
• Rent vs Own: 35.8% rent · 64.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1416.0

Population outlook (Saginaw County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 180,568 people
• By 2030: 172,302 · -4.6%
• By 2040: 153,919 · -14.8%
• By 2050: 135,519 · -24.9%
• By 2075: 97,199 · -46.2%
• By 2100: 65,037 · -64.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Black 27% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Saginaw

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.0% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 17.3pp · 2024: -3.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.3 2020: D+0.3 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+11.9 2008: D+17.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -39.15%
• Current HPI: 159.8807
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.98%
• Metro: Saginaw, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+553.5% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-28 Price Changed $74,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $74,500 REALCOMP
• 2026-02-08 Listed $79,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-02-07 Listed $79,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2012-08-30 Sold (MLS) $10,500 REALCOMP
• 2012-08-30 Sold (MLS) $10,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2012-08-10 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2012-05-18 Listed $11,400 REALCOMP
• 2012-05-18 Listed $11,400 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

+0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,236 · -14.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.