51 Jefferson Oval · Jefferson Valley-Yorktown, NY 10598

$455,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · — sqft · MultiFamily · 35 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (5+ Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

5+ unit building — per-unit beds/baths from public records are typically unavailable; the breakdown below (if shown) is an estimate from the listing text.

Listing remarks

For Sale By Owner: & Acirc; & nbsp; Move in ready Two Bedroom, Two Full Bath unit available in sought after 55+ Jefferson Village Community. This first-floor, move-in-ready condooffers functionality with 1,100 sq. ft. of updated living space including:

Key facts

• Listed 34 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $455k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($27k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $455k).
• Recommended offer: $441k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.5% vs local median 2.8% in Jefferson Valley-Yorktown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Lakeland Central School District (suburban): math 60% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #149 of 590 in NY (top 25%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Thomas Jefferson Elementary School (math 62% / reading 77%, grade A-, #447 of 2,108 statewide, top 24%, 399 students, 16% FRL); Lakeland-Copper Beech Middle School (math 38% / reading 66%, grade C+, #241 of 729 statewide, top 35%, 1,247 students, 29% FRL); Lakeland High School (math 94% / reading 77%, grade A, #366 of 1,100 statewide, top 33%, 942 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools at 15% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 161 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 954 units permitted in Westchester County in 2024 (649 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Westchester County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $127k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($441k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $235k; list at $455k implies a 94% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $441,350 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.40% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.02%
• DSCR: 1.98
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.56×
• Total profit: $70,807
• Equity at exit: $67,842

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.94×
• Total profit: $247,414
• Equity at exit: $39,340

Cash invested: $127,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 10598

• Active inventory: 161
• Price-to-rent: 11.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,391 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,386
• Tax from tax record: −$135 /mo · $1,625/yr
• Insurance: −$190
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,342
• Net cashflow: $2,271

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,516

Max offer price $455,000

Occupancy floor 59%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $2,529	-5% $2,400	+0% $2,271	+5% $2,143	+10% $2,014
Rent	-10% $1,767	-5% $2,019	+0% $2,271	+5% $2,524	+10% $2,776
Rate	-1.0pp $2,501	-0.5pp $2,387	base $2,271	+0.5pp $2,153	+1.0pp $2,034

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	2	$6,390
Total (2 units)			$6,391

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $113,750
• Closing costs: $13,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
164 Carriage Ct Unit B Yorktown Heights, NY	2.0	2.0	1555	$3,950	$2.54	25d	1	0.22mi
188 Long Hill Dr Unit E Yorktown Heights, NY	1.0	1.0	850	$2,400	$2.82	0d	1	0.28mi
451 E Main St Jefferson Valley, NY	3.0	2.0	1632	$3,700	$2.27	21d	1	0.61mi
22 Indian Hill Rd Unit 7 Mahopac, NY	1.0	1.0	700	$1,950	$2.79	45d	1	1.17mi
3538 James St Unit B Cottage Shrub Oak, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,750	$2.75	45d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-16
   days on market $455,000 Active 35 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $455,000 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $455,000 Active 32 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $455,000 Active 28 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $455,000 Active 27 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $455,000 Active 26 DOM
7. 2026-06-04
   days on market $455,000 Active 23 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $455,000 Active 22 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $455,000 Active 21 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $455,000 Active 20 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $455,000 Active 19 DOM
12. 2026-05-12
    listed $455,000 Active
13. 2008-10-16
    soldstatus $235,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,625 · $135/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,657 · $388/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,032/yr (+$253/mo · 186.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 18% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $76,692
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,487
• − Property taxes: −$1,625
• − Insurance: −$3,072
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$6,135
• − Management: −$6,135
• − Depreciation: −$13,236
• Taxable income: $21,001
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$5,040
• After-tax cash flow: $22,217/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lakeland Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3616620
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 70% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $91,965
• Composite: 59.2/100
• National rank: #944
• State rank: #149 of 590 in NY

Livability — Jefferson Valley-Yorktown

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jefferson Valley-Yorktown, NY
• City population: 323
• Population (ZIP): 28,894

Population outlook (Westchester County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,028,035 people
• By 2030: 1,051,636 · +2.3%
• By 2040: 1,098,520 · +6.9%
• By 2050: 1,136,044 · +10.5%
• By 2075: 1,196,925 · +16.4%
• By 2100: 1,175,147 · +14.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 7% Black 5% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 6% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Scotch-Irish 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 5% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Westchester

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+26.3) · D 63.1% · R 36.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.3pp toward R · 2008: 27.6pp · 2024: 26.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+26.3 2020: D+36.3 2016: D+32.8 2012: D+22.2 2008: D+27.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -580.71%
• Current HPI: 248.9112
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+93.6% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $455,000 FSBO.com
• 2008-10-16 Sold (Public Records) $235,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,625 · +11.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.