135 Hillview Dr #115 · Fairfield Bay, AR 72088

$74,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,117 sqft · Condo · 86 Days on market

Built 1975 Fair condition $66/sqft · 33% below area Est $110k · 33% under $358/mo HOA · 18% of rent ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +4.8/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Condo in the heart of Fairfield Bay with all the amenities the Bay has to offer, such as side x side trails, Cool Pool, miniature golf, and so much more! This condo is within walking distance of The Hart Center and Senior Community Center. The property is a 2 bedroom and 1 1/2 bath that is ready to welcome you to the Greers Ferry Lake area.

Key facts

• Cool pool
• Miniature golf
• $358 HOA

Tags

• COOL POOL
• MINIATURE GOLF
• GREERS FERRY LAKE AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath condo listed at $74k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $711 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $74k).
• Recommended offer: $70k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.8% vs local median 5.3% in Fairfield Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#220 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Shirley School District (rural): math 44% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #132 of 245 in AR (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 259 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 16 units permitted in Van Buren County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $159 of equity ($512 loan paydown + $-353 appreciation (-0.5% local appreciation)).
• Van Buren County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-0.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 86 days — a 6% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $6k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $69,560 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 86 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.70% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 41.15%
• DSCR: 2.83
• GRM: 3.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $110,471
• List price: $74,000
• Delta: -33.01%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
135 Hillview Dr	0.00mi	2/1.5	1,033 (-8%)	18mo	$25,000	$24	73

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.48% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 41.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.01×
• Total profit: $41,703
• Equity at exit: $19,741

10-year hold

• IRR: 45.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.00×
• Total profit: $103,502
• Equity at exit: $22,378

Cash invested: $20,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72088

• Home prices YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 259
• Price-to-rent: 3.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$388
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$92 /mo · $1,110/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$358
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $711

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,101

Max offer price $74,000

Occupancy floor 59%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,500
• Closing costs: $2,220
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
106 Set Ct Fairfield Bay, AR	3.0	2.0	1300	$2,000	$1.54	44d	1	0.78mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $358 · $4,296/yr
• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $74,000 Under Contract 86 DOM
2. 2026-06-04
   days on market $74,000 Active 85 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $74,000 Active 84 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $74,000 Active 83 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $74,000 Active 82 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $74,000 Active 81 DOM
7. 2026-03-09
   listed $80,000 New Listing 342-char remark

   Show marketing remark (342 chars)

   Condo in the heart of Fairfield Bay with all the amenities the Bay has to offer, such as side x side trails, Cool Pool, miniature golf, and so much more! This condo is within walking distance of The Hart Center and Senior Community Center. The property is a 2 bedroom and 1 1/2 bath that is ready to welcome you to the Greers Ferry Lake area.

8. 2025-12-03
   historical
9. 2025-11-18
   price $83,000
10. 2025-09-20
    price $87,500
11. 2025-06-02
    listed $93,000 New Listing
12. 2025-05-22
    historical
13. 2025-04-02
    price $84,500
14. 2024-12-19
    price $87,000
15. 2024-11-21
    listed $92,000 New Listing

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,145
• − Property taxes: −$1,110
• − Insurance: −$370
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,920
• − Management: −$1,920
• − HOA: −$4,296
• − Depreciation: −$2,153
• Taxable income: $8,086
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,941
• After-tax cash flow: $6,587/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 55/100 Cosmetic rehab

This condo is in fair condition with cosmetic repairs needed. It offers a good starting point for a potential investor looking to enhance its value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Exterior siding — Weathered appearance
• Minor Carpeted stairs — Slight wear

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint touch-ups — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Exterior siding repair — Improves curb appeal and property value
• Both Carpet cleaning — Enhances interior appearance and cleanliness

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Exterior siding · Weathered appearance	Minor	$500–3,000
Carpeted stairs · Slight wear	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$1,000–6,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint touch-ups — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Exterior siding repair — Improves curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both Carpet cleaning — Enhances interior appearance and cleanliness ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shirley School District
• NCES district ID: 0512420
• Math proficiency: 44% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $36,296
• Composite: 37.98/100
• National rank: #8669
• State rank: #132 of 245 in AR

Livability — Fairfield Bay

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #220
• US rank: #16778

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fairfield Bay, AR
• City population: 2,264
• Population (ZIP): 2,264

Population outlook (Van Buren County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,459 people
• By 2030: 14,645 · -5.3%
• By 2040: 12,918 · -16.4%
• By 2050: 11,263 · -27.1%
• By 2075: 7,870 · -49.1%
• By 2100: 4,918 · -68.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 9% Iranian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 4% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Van Buren

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.2) · D 18.9% · R 79.0% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.5pp toward R · 2008: -31.7pp · 2024: -60.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.2 2020: R+56.9 2016: R+53.9 2012: R+39.5 2008: R+31.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.48%
• Current HPI: 238.2694
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

-13.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-09 Listed $80,000 CARMLS
• 2025-12-03 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2025-11-18 Price Changed $83,000 CARMLS
• 2025-09-20 Price Changed $87,500 CARMLS
• 2025-06-02 Listed $93,000 CARMLS
• 2025-05-22 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2025-04-02 Price Changed $84,500 CARMLS
• 2024-12-19 Price Changed $87,000 CARMLS
• 2024-11-21 Listed $92,000 CARMLS