SILVERBELL Plan · Pattison, TX 77423

$284,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,260 sqft · SingleFamily · 67 Days on market

Good condition

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Cash flow +2.6/30.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The desirable Silverbell floor plan offers an expansive main-floor layout, centered around an airy great room. A dining area and a well-equipped kitchen with a center island are steps away and make for the perfect place to entertain. The floor also features a luxurious primary suite, complete with walk-in shower, dual vanities, and a spacious walk-in closet. The upper floor features three bedrooms and a roomy loft.

Key facts

• Primary suite
• Dining area
• Walk-in shower

Tags

• GREAT ROOM
• DINING AREA
• WELL-EQUIPPED KITCHEN
• CENTER ISLAND
• PRIMARY SUITE
• WALK-IN SHOWER

🏗️ New construction. The $284,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $536,132.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $285k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-22k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $272k (4.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $238k (16.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $238k (16.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 2.2% vs local median 4.4% in Pattison — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#876 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Royal ISD (rural): math 23% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #744 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Royal El (math 27% / reading 20%, grade F, #3,247 of 4,322 statewide, top 76%, 762 students, 78% FRL); Royal J H (math 22% / reading 23%, grade F, #1,341 of 1,662 statewide, top 82%, 593 students, 73% FRL); Royal H S (math 17% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,377 of 1,632 statewide, top 85%, 842 students, 71% FRL) — zoned schools at 74% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 1014 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 483 units permitted in Waller County in 2024 (89 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Waller County population projected at +62% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 67 days — a 6% lower offer ($268k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $238,192 (16.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 67 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.44% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -14.58%
• DSCR: 0.35
• GRM: 18.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $536,132
• List price: $284,990
• Delta: -46.84%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
32803 Teal St	0.59mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,972 (-13%)	21mo	$425,000	$216	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -47.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.40×
• Total profit: $-209,952
• Equity at exit: $79,939

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: -1.39×
• Total profit: $-359,191
• Equity at exit: $46,355

Cash invested: $150,117 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77423

• Rents YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 1014
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,382 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,812
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$670 /mo · $8,042/yr
• Insurance: −$223
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$500
• Net cashflow: $-1,823

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,690

Max offer price $272,287

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,453	-5% $-1,638	+0% $-1,823	+5% $-2,009	+10% $-2,194
Rent	-10% $-2,012	-5% $-1,917	+0% $-1,823	+5% $-1,729	+10% $-1,635
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,553	-0.5pp $-1,687	base $-1,823	+0.5pp $-1,962	+1.0pp $-2,104

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $134,033
• Closing costs: $16,084
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $284,990 Active 67 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $284,990 Active 64 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $284,990 Active 63 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $284,990 Active 62 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $284,990 Active 61 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $284,990 Active 59 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $284,990 Active 55 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $284,990 Active 54 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $284,990 Active 53 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $284,990 Active 50 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $284,990 Active 49 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $284,990 Active 48 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $284,990 Active 47 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $284,990 Active 46 DOM
15. 2026-04-15
    listed $284,990 Active 418-char remark

    Show marketing remark (418 chars)

    The desirable Silverbell floor plan offers an expansive main-floor layout, centered around an airy great room. A dining area and a well-equipped kitchen with a center island are steps away and make for the perfect place to entertain. The floor also features a luxurious primary suite, complete with walk-in shower, dual vanities, and a spacious walk-in closet. The upper floor features three bedrooms and a roomy loft.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 70% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,583
• − Mortgage interest: −$30,032
• − Property taxes: −$8,042
• − Insurance: −$2,681
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,287
• − Management: −$2,287
• − Depreciation: −$15,597
• Taxable loss: −$32,341
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$7,762
• After-tax cash flow: $-14,119/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 11 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This Silverbell plan home is in excellent condition with a good condition score of 80. It is move-in ready with minimal maintenance required. The home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics can be further enhanced with a fresh coat of paint and landscaping improvements.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Resale Kitchen appliances — Modern appliances improve the home's appeal to potential buyers
• Resale Bathroom fixtures — Upgraded fixtures can increase the home's value
• Resale Flooring in bathrooms — Updated flooring can make bathrooms more appealing

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Resale Kitchen appliances — Modern appliances improve the home's appeal to potential buyers ↑
• Resale Bathroom fixtures — Upgraded fixtures can increase the home's value ↑
• Resale Flooring in bathrooms — Updated flooring can make bathrooms more appealing ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Royal ISD
• NCES district ID: 4838190
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $41,059
• Composite: 19.55/100
• National rank: #8760
• State rank: #744 of 826 in TX

Livability — Pattison

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #876
• US rank: #15789

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Waller County · 18,767 people
• City population: 18,767
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 18,767
• Household income: $84,490
• Rent vs Own: 20.6% rent · 79.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 20.0

Population outlook (Waller County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 60,772 people
• By 2030: 67,616 · +11.3%
• By 2040: 82,283 · +35.4%
• By 2050: 98,276 · +61.7%
• By 2075: 142,860 · +135.1%
• By 2100: 175,596 · +188.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 41% White 41% Black 14% Two or more races 13% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 32% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Waller

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.0) · D 37.0% · R 62.0% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -7.2pp · 2024: -25.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.0 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+28.6 2012: R+17.6 2008: R+7.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -125.28%
• Current HPI: 204.8709
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.01%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Listed $284,990 Zillow