404 Lee St · Smithville, TX 78957

$220,000

2 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,316 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 93 Days on market

Built 1954 6,708 sqft lot $167/sqft · 16% below area Est $262k · 16% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.7/15.0
• Cash flow +11.4/30.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Check out this remodeled 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom house with a detached efficiency apartment. Both have been updated and are ready to move in. The apartment has a kitchenette and a full bathroom. It could be a guest house, a rental, an office, or even an extra bedroom - there are so many possibilities! The main house has an open kitchen/living area. The primary bedroom is in the back of the house, has an ensuite, and a door to the back porch. The laundry room is spacious. You won’t have to worry about major maintenance for a while, because the main house has a new metal roof, a new hot water heater, and new appliances. Even the apartment has a new refrigerator. The backyard has alley access and a storage building. Schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• Ensuite
• New metal roof
• New hot water heater

Tags

• DETACHED EFFICIENCY APARTMENT
• OPEN KITCHEN LIVING AREA
• ENSUITE
• NEW METAL ROOF
• NEW HOT WATER HEATER
• NEW APPLIANCES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-75 ($-902/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $207k (6.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $179k (18.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $179k (18.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.0% in Smithville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#577 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Smithville ISD (town): math 42% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #333 of 826 in TX (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 250 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 62% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,841 units permitted in Bastrop County in 2024 (150 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bastrop County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 93 days — a 9% lower offer ($200k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 92% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $179,162 (18.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 93 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.88%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.46%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $262,205
• List price: $220,000
• Delta: -16.10%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
300 Walker St	0.12mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,400 (+6%)	6mo	$180,000	$129	70
407 Lee St	0.03mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,366 (+4%)	14mo	$285,000	$209	68
304 Washington St	0.09mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,200 (-9%)	4mo	$165,000	$138	65
406 San Jacinto St	0.39mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,260 (-4%)	5mo	$259,000	$206	62
406 Ross St	0.51mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,311 (-0%)	6mo	$289,999	$221	61
207 4th Ave	0.60mi	2/2.0	1,338 (+2%)	20mo	$339,900	$254	49
301 Mills St	0.62mi	2/2.0	1,426 (+8%)	13mo	$330,000	$231	43
201 Short St	0.53mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,254 (-5%)	19mo	$329,500	$263	42
605 Olive St	0.68mi	2/2.0	1,419 (+8%)	16mo	$349,900	$247	37
304 Mills St	0.66mi	2/1.0	1,199 (-9%)	18mo	$149,900	$125	31
602 Olive St	0.68mi	2/1.0	1,150 (-13%)	13mo	$235,000	$204	29
503 Pine St	0.64mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,513 (+15%)	10mo	$320,000	$212	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-40,426
• Equity at exit: $32,803

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-41,329
• Equity at exit: $19,022

Cash invested: $61,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78957

• Home prices YoY: -22.3%
• Active inventory: 250
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,792 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax from tax record: −$245 /mo · $2,942/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$376
• Net cashflow: $-75

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,887

Max offer price $206,727

Occupancy floor 99%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,000
• Closing costs: $6,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
403 Taylor St Smithville, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,800	$1.50	20d	1	0.51mi
304 Olive St Smithville, TX	2.0	2.0	1521	$1,995	$1.31	44d	1	0.52mi
403 Fawcett St Smithville, TX	2.0	1.0	1528	$1,700	$1.11	44d	1	0.56mi
809 Burleson St Smithville, TX	2.0	1.0	1074	$1,350	$1.26	44d	1	0.89mi
801 Bishop St Smithville, TX	2.0	1.0	1050	$1,550	$1.48	44d	1	0.98mi
505 Colorado St Smithville, TX	3.0	2.0	1114	$1,990	$1.79	8d	1	1.00mi
305 Anderson St Unit A Smithville, TX	2.0	2.0	1216	$1,460	$1.20	18d	1	1.17mi
109 Les Ln Smithville, TX	3.0	2.0	1822	$2,600	$1.43	44d	1	1.22mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-02-23
   listed $238,000 Active 755-char remark

   Show marketing remark (755 chars)

   Check out this remodeled 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom house with a detached efficiency apartment. Both have been updated and are ready to move in. The apartment has a kitchenette and a full bathroom. It could be a guest house, a rental, an office, or even an extra bedroom - there are so many possibilities! The main house has an open kitchen/living area. The primary bedroom is in the back of the house, has an ensuite, and a door to the back porch. The laundry room is spacious. You won’t have to worry about major maintenance for a while, because the main house has a new metal roof, a new hot water heater, and new appliances. Even the apartment has a new refrigerator. The backyard has alley access and a storage building. Schedule your showing today!

2. 1980-08-01
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,942 · $245/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,026 · $336/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,084/yr (+$90/mo · 36.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 92% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,499
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,323
• − Property taxes: −$2,942
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,720
• − Management: −$1,720
• − Depreciation: −$6,400
• Taxable loss: −$4,706
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,129
• After-tax cash flow: $228/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Smithville ISD
• NCES district ID: 4840550
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,794
• Composite: 36.04/100
• National rank: #4776
• State rank: #333 of 826 in TX

Livability — Smithville

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #577
• US rank: #11003

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Smithville, TX
• Population (ZIP): 10,282

Population outlook (Bastrop County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 94,260 people
• By 2030: 101,355 · +7.5%
• By 2040: 115,578 · +22.6%
• By 2050: 129,464 · +37.3%
• By 2075: 168,068 · +78.3%
• By 2100: 194,857 · +106.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 19% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Iranian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 13%

Political lean MEDSL · Bastrop

• 2024 margin: R (+18.4) · D 40.2% · R 58.6% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: -8.2pp · 2024: -18.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.4 2020: R+13.8 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+17.0 2008: R+8.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -79.22%
• Current HPI: 275.3765
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-23 Listed $238,000 Unlock MLS
• 1980-08-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+10.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,942 · +6.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.