420 49th St E #64 · Memphis, FL 34221

$175,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · Manufactured public records · 196 Days on market

Built 2019 4,090 sqft lot Est $138k · 27% over $200/mo HOA · 9% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.3/30.0
• DSCR +8.4/10.0
• 1% rule +7.7/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Rare opportunity to purchase a share/lot at Skyway Village Estates Cooperative. Close to clubhouse, lake, and recreational facilities, which includes heated pool, shuffleboard and clubhouse. Very low monthly fee of $122/month includes water, sewer and lawn care. Lot has been cleared of previous unit, but does have a pad and driveway. Chose your own mobile /manufactured home to be installed on this rarely-available lot.

Key facts

• Premium upgrades
• Open layout
• Hurricane rated

Tags

• PREMIUM UPGRADES
• HURRICANE RATED
• OPEN LAYOUT
• R30 ROOF INSULATION
• LOW-E INSULATED WINDOWS
• LED RECESSED LIGHTING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $400 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• Recommended offer: $154k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 4.5% in Memphis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#745 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-3.0%/yr); 1160 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($78k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 196 days — a 12% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $65k (27%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $26k; list at $175k implies a 586% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $154,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 196 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.80%
• DSCR: 1.44
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $137,592
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
420 49th St E #48	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,296 (-14%)	2mo	$110,000	$85	74
5619 Bayshore Rd #466	0.51mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,364 (-10%)	1mo	$123,500	$91	54
5619 Bayshore Rd #421	0.47mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-11%)	5mo	$150,000	$112	50
5619 Bayshore Rd #469	0.52mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-11%)	5mo	$112,000	$83	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-9,283
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.00×
• Total profit: $6
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34221

• Rents YoY: -3.0%
• Active inventory: 1160
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,227 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$169 /mo · $2,029/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$200
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$468
• Net cashflow: $400

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,721

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $499	-5% $450	+0% $400	+5% $350	+10% $301
Rent	-10% $224	-5% $312	+0% $400	+5% $488	+10% $576
Rate	-1.0pp $488	-0.5pp $445	base $400	+0.5pp $355	+1.0pp $309

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
105 2nd Ave E Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1569	$1,895	$1.21	13d	1	0.18mi
105 2nd Ave E Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1569	$1,895	$1.21	24d	1	0.18mi
110 49th Ct E Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1655	$1,850	$1.12	4d	1	0.22mi
4721 1st Ave E #4721 Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1460	$2,000	$1.37	24d	1	0.38mi
4620 1st Ave E #4620 Palmetto, FL	3.0	3.0	1959	$1,950	$1.00	24d	1	0.40mi
4633 1st Ave E Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.5	1586	$1,875	$1.18	4d	1	0.41mi
4207 5th Ave W Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1744	$3,000	$1.72	24d	1	0.84mi
3222 6th Ave W Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1414	$2,185	$1.55	24d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $200 · $2,400/yr
• Likely covers: watersewerlandscapingpool

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-02-04
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-31
   historical
3. 2026-01-03
   price $175,000
4. 2025-11-22
   price $185,000
5. 2025-10-10
   price $195,000
6. 2025-09-30
   price $204,900
7. 2025-08-22
   price $224,900
8. 2025-08-05
   price $229,900
9. 2025-07-19
   listed $240,000 Active
10. 2018-09-18
    soldstatus $25,500 Sold 422-char remark

    Show marketing remark (422 chars)

    Rare opportunity to purchase a share/lot at Skyway Village Estates Cooperative. Close to clubhouse, lake, and recreational facilities, which includes heated pool, shuffleboard and clubhouse. Very low monthly fee of $122/month includes water, sewer and lawn care. Lot has been cleared of previous unit, but does have a pad and driveway. Chose your own mobile /manufactured home to be installed on this rarely-available lot.

11. 2018-08-23
    status Pending 422-char remark

    Show marketing remark (422 chars)

    Rare opportunity to purchase a share/lot at Skyway Village Estates Cooperative. Close to clubhouse, lake, and recreational facilities, which includes heated pool, shuffleboard and clubhouse. Very low monthly fee of $122/month includes water, sewer and lawn care. Lot has been cleared of previous unit, but does have a pad and driveway. Chose your own mobile /manufactured home to be installed on this rarely-available lot.

12. 2018-04-28
    listed $25,000 Active 422-char remark

    Show marketing remark (422 chars)

    Rare opportunity to purchase a share/lot at Skyway Village Estates Cooperative. Close to clubhouse, lake, and recreational facilities, which includes heated pool, shuffleboard and clubhouse. Very low monthly fee of $122/month includes water, sewer and lawn care. Lot has been cleared of previous unit, but does have a pad and driveway. Chose your own mobile /manufactured home to be installed on this rarely-available lot.

13. 2014-10-20
    soldstatus $38,000 Sold 350-char remark

    Show marketing remark (350 chars)

    Exceptionally nice 3 bedroom, 2 bath (master bath has walk-in shower). Nice furniture, very clean and well-maintained. Ample room for the visitors up North. Beautiful drapes and sheers with mini blinds. Oversized shed with w/ d. Loads of storage space. Skyway is a very nice community with a new clubhouse, fenced pool and 2 lakes for your enjoyment.

14. 2014-10-19
    status Pending 350-char remark

    Show marketing remark (350 chars)

    Exceptionally nice 3 bedroom, 2 bath (master bath has walk-in shower). Nice furniture, very clean and well-maintained. Ample room for the visitors up North. Beautiful drapes and sheers with mini blinds. Oversized shed with w/ d. Loads of storage space. Skyway is a very nice community with a new clubhouse, fenced pool and 2 lakes for your enjoyment.

15. 2014-09-23
    listed $43,500 Active 350-char remark

    Show marketing remark (350 chars)

    Exceptionally nice 3 bedroom, 2 bath (master bath has walk-in shower). Nice furniture, very clean and well-maintained. Ample room for the visitors up North. Beautiful drapes and sheers with mini blinds. Oversized shed with w/ d. Loads of storage space. Skyway is a very nice community with a new clubhouse, fenced pool and 2 lakes for your enjoyment.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,029 · $169/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,029 · $169/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 23% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,730
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$2,029
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,138
• − Management: −$2,138
• − HOA: −$2,400
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable income: $2,256
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$541
• After-tax cash flow: $4,259/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Memphis

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #745
• US rank: #16072

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 14,819
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 56,208
• Household income: $77,712
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1193.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 22% Black 14% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -383.53%
• Current HPI: 302.1458
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.98%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+302.3% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-04 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-31 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-03 Price Changed $175,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-22 Price Changed $185,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-10 Price Changed $195,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-30 Price Changed $204,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-22 Price Changed $224,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-05 Price Changed $229,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-19 Listed $240,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-09-18 Sold (MLS) $25,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-08-23 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-04-28 Listed $25,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-10-20 Sold (MLS) $38,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-10-19 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-09-23 Listed $43,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+8.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,029 · +6.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.