822 E Commerce St · Mexia, TX 76667

$85,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,908 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1964 9,365 sqft lot Est $151k · 44% under ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great opportunity for investment! Owner has installed new roof on both buildings, and new electrical meters to both the main residence as well as the converted garage space. This three bedroom one bath craftsman style home has 1908 square feet, includes sunroom and utility room. You will love the hardwood floors! The property sits on . 22 acres and the large backyard is chain-linked fenced a with gorgeous pecan trees in front and back. OWNER FINANCING AVAILABLE!

Key facts

• Utility room
• Large backyard
• Sunroom

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• NEW ELECTRICAL METERS
• SUNROOM
• UTILITY ROOM
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• LARGE BACKYARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property offered with cash or owner financing available; Listing is active and for sale
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Electricity available; Curbs and sidewalk
• Home design: Single-family residence; One-story; Accessory unit included
• Construction: Built in 1964; Brick, siding and wood construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Covered porch(es); Covered patio/porch; Chain link fencing; Grassed yard; Few trees on the lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen with built-in cabinets; No listed appliances
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Hardwood flooring; Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: Built-in features and pantry; Paneling; One living area; One dining area; Total of 6 rooms; Accessory unit present (432 sq ft)
• Laundry & utility: Utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $330 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
• Cap rate 10.9% vs local median 3.6% in Mexia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#458 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Mexia ISD (town): math 22% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #696 of 826 in TX (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 69% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: A B Mcbay El (527 students, 86% FRL) — zoned schools average 86% FRL vs 69% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 129 active listings in the ZIP; 17 units permitted in Limestone County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Limestone County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.5% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 65% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $85,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.58% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.63%
• DSCR: 1.74
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $150,732
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
908 E Titus St	0.21mi	3/2.0	2,040 (+7%)	1mo	$57,500	$28	78
600 N Bailey St	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,817 (-5%)	14mo	$170,000	$94	62
812 E Sumpter St	0.31mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,956 (+2%)	18mo	$55,000	$28	61
910 Varella	0.63mi	3/2.0	2,004 (+5%)	3mo	$159,000	$79	59
1125 E Palestine St	0.48mi	3/2.0	2,114 (+11%)	1mo	$120,000	$57	59
1120 Tamarisk Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0	2,088 (+9%)	4mo	$199,900	$96	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.31×
• Total profit: $7,342
• Equity at exit: $12,674

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.42×
• Total profit: $33,884
• Equity at exit: $7,349

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76667

• Home prices YoY: -8.9%
• Active inventory: 129
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,343 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$250 /mo · $2,998/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$282
• Net cashflow: $330

Break-even live

Break-even rent $925

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 70%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-03
   days on market $85,000 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $85,000 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $85,000 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $85,000 Active 3 DOM
5. 2026-05-27
   listed $85,000 Active
6. 2026-02-20
   historical
7. 2025-11-15
   listed $99,000 Active
8. 2008-01-09
   soldstatus
9. 2007-04-23
   soldstatus
10. 2006-11-16
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,998 · $250/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,998 · $250/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 65% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,113
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$2,998
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,289
• − Management: −$1,289
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $2,879
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$691
• After-tax cash flow: $3,267/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mexia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830420
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $37,464
• Composite: 22.48/100
• National rank: #8101
• State rank: #696 of 826 in TX

Livability — Mexia

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #458
• US rank: #9265

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mexia, TX
• Population (ZIP): 10,494

Population outlook (Limestone County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 23,396 people
• By 2030: 23,214 · -0.8%
• By 2040: 22,829 · -2.4%
• By 2050: 22,516 · -3.8%
• By 2075: 22,088 · -5.6%
• By 2100: 20,354 · -13.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 24% Black 21%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 23%

Political lean MEDSL · Limestone

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+56.9) · D 21.2% · R 78.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.4pp toward R · 2008: -33.5pp · 2024: -56.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+56.9 2020: R+50.3 2016: R+52.3 2012: R+40.7 2008: R+33.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -15.91%
• Current HPI: 161.8191
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-14.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Listed $85,000 NTREIS
• 2026-02-20 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-11-15 Listed $99,000 NTREIS
• 2008-01-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2007-04-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-11-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+10.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,998 · +28.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.