9694 Carron Rd · Bloomsdale, MO 63627

$97,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,336 sqft · Other public records · 358 Days on market

Built 1987 1.65 ac lot $42/sqft · 68% below area ↓ 22% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.6/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This home is sitting back off the road and extremely private but is in need of repair. This could be your next flip or a perfect fixer upper to call home. Home offers 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms on 1.5+ acres. Make your appointment today to come check out all the potential this home has to offer!

Key facts

• 1.65 acre lot
• Built 1987
• Listed 358 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $98k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $352 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $98k).
• Recommended offer: $86k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#478 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: schools C-, crime D+, amenities F.
• Ste. Genevieve County R-II (town): math 46% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #59 of 324 in MO (top 18%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 6 active listings in the ZIP; 8 units permitted in Ste. Genevieve County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $674 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ste. Genevieve County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 358 days — a 12% lower offer ($86k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $85,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 358 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.48%
• DSCR: 1.69
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $262,535
• List price: $97,500
• Delta: -62.86%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.24×
• Total profit: $6,626
• Equity at exit: $14,538

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.27×
• Total profit: $34,628
• Equity at exit: $8,430

Cash invested: $27,300 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63627

• Home prices YoY: -13.9%
• Active inventory: 6
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,247 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$511
• Tax from tax record: −$81 /mo · $971/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$262
• Net cashflow: $352

Break-even live

Break-even rent $801

Max offer price $97,500

Occupancy floor 67%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $407	-5% $380	+0% $352	+5% $325	+10% $297
Rent	-10% $254	-5% $303	+0% $352	+5% $401	+10% $451
Rate	-1.0pp $401	-0.5pp $377	base $352	+0.5pp $327	+1.0pp $301

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,375
• Closing costs: $2,925
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $97,500 Active 358 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $97,500 Active 356 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $97,500 Active 355 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $97,500 Active 354 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $97,500 Active 353 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $97,500 Active 351 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $97,500 Active 350 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $97,500 Active 347 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $97,500 Active 346 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $97,500 Active 345 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $97,500 Active 344 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $97,500 Active 341 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $97,500 Active 340 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $97,500 Active 339 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $97,500 Active 338 DOM
16. 2026-05-19
    price $97,500 296-char remark

    Show marketing remark (296 chars)

    This home is sitting back off the road and extremely private but is in need of repair. This could be your next flip or a perfect fixer upper to call home. Home offers 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms on 1.5+ acres. Make your appointment today to come check out all the potential this home has to offer!

17. 2026-03-19
    status Active 296-char remark

    Show marketing remark (296 chars)

    This home is sitting back off the road and extremely private but is in need of repair. This could be your next flip or a perfect fixer upper to call home. Home offers 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms on 1.5+ acres. Make your appointment today to come check out all the potential this home has to offer!

18. 2025-12-12
    status Active 296-char remark

    Show marketing remark (296 chars)

    This home is sitting back off the road and extremely private but is in need of repair. This could be your next flip or a perfect fixer upper to call home. Home offers 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms on 1.5+ acres. Make your appointment today to come check out all the potential this home has to offer!

19. 2025-08-12
    price $99,900 296-char remark

    Show marketing remark (296 chars)

    This home is sitting back off the road and extremely private but is in need of repair. This could be your next flip or a perfect fixer upper to call home. Home offers 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms on 1.5+ acres. Make your appointment today to come check out all the potential this home has to offer!

20. 2025-07-01
    price $109,900 296-char remark

    Show marketing remark (296 chars)

    This home is sitting back off the road and extremely private but is in need of repair. This could be your next flip or a perfect fixer upper to call home. Home offers 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms on 1.5+ acres. Make your appointment today to come check out all the potential this home has to offer!

21. 2025-06-17
    listed $118,000 Active 296-char remark

    Show marketing remark (296 chars)

    This home is sitting back off the road and extremely private but is in need of repair. This could be your next flip or a perfect fixer upper to call home. Home offers 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms on 1.5+ acres. Make your appointment today to come check out all the potential this home has to offer!

22. 2025-04-05
    status Pending
23. 2025-03-03
    listed $125,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $971 · $81/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $971 · $81/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,963
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,462
• − Property taxes: −$971
• − Insurance: −$488
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,197
• − Management: −$1,197
• − Depreciation: −$2,836
• Taxable income: $2,812
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$675
• After-tax cash flow: $3,551/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ste. Genevieve County R-II
• NCES district ID: 2929370
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,013
• Composite: 40.83/100
• National rank: #3632
• State rank: #59 of 324 in MO

Livability — Bloomsdale

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #478
• US rank: #18866

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,856

Population outlook (Ste. Genevieve County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,453 people
• By 2030: 17,119 · -1.9%
• By 2040: 16,361 · -6.3%
• By 2050: 15,719 · -9.9%
• By 2075: 14,849 · -14.9%
• By 2100: 13,504 · -22.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 2% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 11% Lithuanian 10% Romanian 1%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ste. Genevieve

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.0) · D 26.9% · R 71.9% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -59.2pp toward R · 2008: 14.1pp · 2024: -45.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.0 2020: R+41.3 2016: R+34.9 2012: R+3.0 2008: D+14.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -30.44%
• Current HPI: 189.0245
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-22.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $97,500 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-19 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-12 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-12 Price Changed $99,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-01 Price Changed $109,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-17 Listed $118,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-05 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-03 Listed $125,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $971 · +21.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.