623 W 15th St · Okmulgee, OK 74447

$39,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 930 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 180 Days on market

Built 1920 7,000 sqft lot Est $47k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.2/10.0

Listing remarks

Ready to start your investment portfolio? This 2 Bed/ 1 bath is a nice option. Needs a little TLC but is priced great for a quick return.

Key facts

• 7,000 sq ft lot
• Built 1920
• Listed 180 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Dirt driveway
• Security: No safety shelter
• Utilities: Electricity available; Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-story; Faces south; Crawlspace foundation
• Construction: Wood frame construction; Asphalt/fiberglass roof
• Exterior features: Covered porch; Dirt driveway

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Stove
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Floor furnace (gas); Window unit(s) for cooling
• Interior features: Laminate counters; Gas range connection; Gas oven connection; Vinyl and wood frame windows; No additional interior features listed
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $577 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $35k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 23.8% vs local median 7.6% in Okmulgee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#300 in OK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Okmulgee (town): math 3% / reading 7% proficiency, ranked #264 of 270 in OK (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 146 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 12 units permitted in Okmulgee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $273 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Okmulgee County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 180 days — a 12% lower offer ($35k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $25k; list at $40k implies a 58% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $34,760 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 180 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.62% ✓
• Cap rate: 23.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 62.57%
• DSCR: 3.78
• GRM: 3.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $47,430
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
133 N Bryan Ave	0.75mi	2/1.0	912 (-2%)	12mo	$55,000	$60	52
810 S Taft Ave	0.24mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,040 (+12%)	13mo	$139,000	$134	51
407 E 20th St	0.66mi	2/1.0	888 (-4%)	18mo	$45,000	$51	47
701 W 9th St	0.47mi	3/1.0 (+1)	860 (-8%)	17mo	$20,000	$23	46
518 S Morton Ave	0.45mi	2/1.0	1,064 (+14%)	20mo	$15,000	$14	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 61.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.74×
• Total profit: $30,324
• Equity at exit: $5,890

10-year hold

• IRR: 66.1%
• Equity multiple: 7.66×
• Total profit: $73,681
• Equity at exit: $3,415

Cash invested: $11,060 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Oklahoma: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; strongly landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 74447

• Home prices YoY: -3.6%
• Active inventory: 146
• Price-to-rent: 3.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,034 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$207
• Tax from tax record: −$17 /mo · $199/yr
• Insurance: −$16
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$217
• Net cashflow: $577

Break-even live

Break-even rent $304

Max offer price $39,500

Occupancy floor 39%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $599	-5% $588	+0% $577	+5% $565	+10% $554
Rent	-10% $495	-5% $536	+0% $577	+5% $618	+10% $658
Rate	-1.0pp $597	-0.5pp $587	base $577	+0.5pp $566	+1.0pp $556

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,875
• Closing costs: $1,185
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1104 W 8th St Okmulgee, OK	2.0	1.0	1084	$850	$0.78	3d	1	0.56mi
324 E 6th St Unit 214 Okmulgee, OK	2.0	1.0	891	$1,200	$1.35	24d	1	0.85mi
324 E 6th St Unit 204 Okmulgee, OK	2.0	1.0	770	$1,150	$1.49	24d	1	0.85mi
324 E 6th St Unit 116 Okmulgee, OK	2.0	1.0	776	$1,060	$1.37	24d	1	0.85mi
324 E 6th St Unit 109 Okmulgee, OK	2.0	1.0	676	$985	$1.46	24d	1	0.85mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-04
   days on market $39,500 Active 180 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $39,500 Active 179 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $39,500 Active 178 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $39,500 Active 177 DOM
5. 2025-12-05
   listed $39,500 Active
6. 2008-05-14
   soldstatus $25,000
7. 2005-04-19
   soldstatus $20,000
8. 2005-04-18
   soldstatus $13,000
9. 2003-06-27
   soldstatus $14,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OK · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $199 · $17/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $356 · $30/mo
• Expected delta: +$156/yr (+$13/mo · 78.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 7% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,408
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,213
• − Property taxes: −$199
• − Insurance: −$198
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$993
• − Management: −$993
• − Depreciation: −$1,149
• Taxable income: $6,665
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,599
• After-tax cash flow: $5,321/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Okmulgee
• NCES district ID: 4022800
• Math proficiency: 3% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 7% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $31,078
• Composite: 3.66/100
• National rank: #10069
• State rank: #264 of 270 in OK

Livability — Okmulgee

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #300
• US rank: #17773

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Okmulgee, OK
• Population (ZIP): 15,500

Population outlook (Okmulgee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 37,543 people
• By 2030: 36,528 · -2.7%
• By 2040: 34,430 · -8.3%
• By 2050: 32,498 · -13.4%
• By 2075: 28,814 · -23.3%
• By 2100: 25,193 · -32.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Native American 15% Two or more races 15% Black 13% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Okmulgee

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.7) · D 27.7% · R 70.4% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.7pp toward R · 2008: -17.0pp · 2024: -42.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.7 2020: R+37.1 2016: R+32.7 2012: R+17.5 2008: R+17.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -9.69%
• Current HPI: 257.2856
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.55%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OK)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	3	$48B

Price history

+182.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-05 Listed $39,500 MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2008-05-14 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records
• 2005-04-19 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records
• 2005-04-18 Sold (Public Records) $13,000 Public Records
• 2003-06-27 Sold (Public Records) $14,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $199 · +6.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.