2824 Bates St · Lubbock, TX 79415

$65,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 924 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 37 Days on market

Built 1953 4,969 sqft lot $70/sqft · 32% above area Est $49k · 32% over ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.2/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to this cute rental property! If you are looking for a remodeled, plug and play rental, this one is for you! This home has recent paint, flooring, kitchen updates, bathroom updates, and exterior finishes! With 2 bedrooms, and a great sized bathroom for this size of home, this one has been an easy rent and repeat property as tenants turn over. Check this one out ASAP!

Key facts

• Remodeled rental
• Recent paint
• Kitchen updates

Tags

• REMODELED RENTAL
• RECENT PAINT
• KITCHEN UPDATES
• BATHROOM UPDATES
• EXTERIOR FINISHES

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Off-street parking; On-street parking
• Security: Carbon monoxide detector(s); Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Natural gas connected/available
• Home design: Single family residence; Single-story
• Construction: Asbestos construction materials; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Built as a single-family home
• Exterior features: Fenced yard; Landscaped lot; Composition roof

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Wall furnace heating; Ceiling fans for cooling; Multiple cooling units
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Window coverings

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $65k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $259 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($922 rent vs $65k).
• Recommended offer: $63k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F.
• Lubbock ISD (urban): math 36% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #481 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Mcwhorter El (math 28% / reading 27%, grade F, #2,768 of 4,322 statewide, top 65%, 535 students, 94% FRL); Cavazos Middle (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,301 of 1,662 statewide, top 79%, 479 students, 97% FRL); Lubbock H S (math 45% / reading 52%, grade D, #560 of 1,632 statewide, top 35%, 1,839 students, 55% FRL) — zoned schools average 82% FRL vs 60% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 110 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($36k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $449 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($63k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $63,050 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.42% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.09%
• DSCR: 1.76
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $49,077
• List price: $65,000
• Delta: 32.45%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.33×
• Total profit: $5,999
• Equity at exit: $9,692

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.46×
• Total profit: $26,584
• Equity at exit: $5,620

Cash invested: $18,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79415

• Home prices YoY: -20.1%
• Active inventory: 110
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $922 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax from tax record: −$101 /mo · $1,212/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$194
• Net cashflow: $259

Break-even live

Break-even rent $594

Max offer price $65,000

Occupancy floor 67%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,250
• Closing costs: $1,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2906 Cornell St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	920	$875	$0.95	13d	1	0.17mi
2814 1st Pl Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	676	$695	$1.03	43d	1	0.27mi
2814 1st Pl Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	676	$695	$1.03	21d	1	0.28mi
2805 1st Pl Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	730	$895	$1.23	21d	1	0.31mi
2613 Auburn St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	978	$875	$0.89	43d	1	0.32mi
3207 Amherst St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1020	$1,200	$1.18	43d	1	0.35mi
2803 2nd St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	784	$800	$1.02	43d	1	0.37mi
3207 Duke St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	647	$695	$1.07	43d	1	0.42mi
3207 Duke St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	647	$595	$0.92	21d	1	0.42mi
2512 1st St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1050	$900	$0.86	13d	1	0.48mi
2715 Fordham St Unit 7 Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,150	$1.05	43d	1	0.48mi
3315 Amherst St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	950	$875	$0.92	21d	1	0.50mi
3307 Erskine St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1120	$1,000	$0.89	21d	1	0.60mi
701 N Indiana Ave Lubbock, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	675	$850	$1.26	21d	1	0.80mi
3318 Itasca St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.5	1068	$950	$0.89	13d	1	0.82mi
114 Avenue V Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	728	$750	$1.03	43d	1	0.89mi
105 North Avenue U Unit U Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	672	$750	$1.12	43d	1	0.99mi
301 Avenue U Lubbock, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	625	$875	$1.40	13d	4	1.12mi
3701 Clovis Rd Lubbock, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	833	$1,400	$1.68	13d	19	1.37mi
2315 13th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	825	$995	$1.21	43d	1	1.39mi
2316 15th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	960	$795	$0.83	21d	1	1.47mi
2317 15th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$1,000	$1.11	43d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $65,000 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $65,000 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $65,000 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $65,000 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $65,000 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $65,000 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $65,000 Active 29 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $65,000 Active 28 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $65,000 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $65,000 Active 26 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $65,000 Active 23 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $65,000 Active 22 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $65,000 Active 21 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $65,000 Active 20 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $65,000 Active 19 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $65,000 Active 18 DOM
17. 2026-05-12
    listed $65,000 Active 383-char remark
18. 2025-01-16
    price $72,500
19. 2024-11-12
    soldstatus
20. 2024-09-26
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,212 · $101/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,212 · $101/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,060
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,641
• − Property taxes: −$1,212
• − Insurance: −$325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$885
• − Management: −$885
• − Depreciation: −$1,891
• Taxable income: $2,221
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$533
• After-tax cash flow: $2,577/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lubbock ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828500
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $39,820
• Composite: 31.44/100
• National rank: #5984
• State rank: #481 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lubbock, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 283,030
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 15,794
• Household income: $36,468
• Rent vs Own: 62.9% rent · 37.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1287.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 59% White 26% Two or more races 19% Black 7% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 49%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Serbian 1% Estonian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 57% English-only · Spanish 36% Other Indo-European 4% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -41.79%
• Current HPI: 165.7933
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-10.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $65,000 LARMLS
• 2025-01-16 Price Changed $72,500 LARMLS
• 2024-11-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-09-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,212 · -2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.