16891 Needlepoint Dr · Grangerland, TX 77302

$224,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,582 sqft · Land · 22 Days on market

Built 2025 6,299 sqft lot $54/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.0/30.0
• DSCR +9.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Bridgeport brings everything together in one comfortable, convenient single-story floor plan. Centered around an airy, open kitchen that overlooks a dining room and a great room, the main living area is spacious and inviting. The lavish primary suite boasts a private bath with a walk-in shower, dual vanities, and a walk-in closet. Adjacent, you’ll find three additional bedrooms, offering ample space for rest and relaxation.

Key facts

• 6,299 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2025

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $697 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $225k).
• Recommended offer: $222k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.0% vs local median 5.1% in Grangerland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 1111 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($85k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.3% rent growth), your $63k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($222k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $221,526 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.29%
• DSCR: 1.59
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.14×
• Total profit: $8,715
• Equity at exit: $33,533

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.08×
• Total profit: $67,868
• Equity at exit: $19,445

Cash invested: $62,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77302

• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 1111
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,654 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,179
• Tax from tax record: −$73 /mo · $872/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$54
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$557
• Net cashflow: $697

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,772

Max offer price $224,900

Occupancy floor 69%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $825	-5% $761	+0% $697	+5% $634	+10% $570
Rent	-10% $488	-5% $592	+0% $697	+5% $802	+10% $907
Rate	-1.0pp $811	-0.5pp $754	base $697	+0.5pp $639	+1.0pp $580

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,225
• Closing costs: $6,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16703 Twisted Pine Dr Conroe, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1671	$2,230	$1.33	2d	13	0.18mi
15271 Country West Dr Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1568	$1,350	$0.86	44d	1	0.99mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $54 · $648/yr

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-05-08
   status Pending 437-char remark

   Show marketing remark (437 chars)

   The Bridgeport brings everything together in one comfortable, convenient single-story floor plan. Centered around an airy, open kitchen that overlooks a dining room and a great room, the main living area is spacious and inviting. The lavish primary suite boasts a private bath with a walk-in shower, dual vanities, and a walk-in closet. Adjacent, you’ll find three additional bedrooms, offering ample space for rest and relaxation.

2. 2026-05-05
   price $224,900 437-char remark

   Show marketing remark (437 chars)

   The Bridgeport brings everything together in one comfortable, convenient single-story floor plan. Centered around an airy, open kitchen that overlooks a dining room and a great room, the main living area is spacious and inviting. The lavish primary suite boasts a private bath with a walk-in shower, dual vanities, and a walk-in closet. Adjacent, you’ll find three additional bedrooms, offering ample space for rest and relaxation.

3. 2026-04-16
   listed $244,900 Active 437-char remark

   Show marketing remark (437 chars)

   The Bridgeport brings everything together in one comfortable, convenient single-story floor plan. Centered around an airy, open kitchen that overlooks a dining room and a great room, the main living area is spacious and inviting. The lavish primary suite boasts a private bath with a walk-in shower, dual vanities, and a walk-in closet. Adjacent, you’ll find three additional bedrooms, offering ample space for rest and relaxation.

4. 2026-04-16
   historical

   Show marketing remark (437 chars)

   The Bridgeport brings everything together in one comfortable, convenient single-story floor plan. Centered around an airy, open kitchen that overlooks a dining room and a great room, the main living area is spacious and inviting. The lavish primary suite boasts a private bath with a walk-in shower, dual vanities, and a walk-in closet. Adjacent, you’ll find three additional bedrooms, offering ample space for rest and relaxation.

5. 2026-03-09
   status Active
6. 2026-03-09
   price $244,900
7. 2025-10-07
   status Pending
8. 2025-09-04
   price $234,900
9. 2025-07-19
   price $239,900
10. 2025-06-25
    price $244,900
11. 2025-04-18
    listed $254,900 Active
12. 2025-04-18
    historical
13. 2025-02-07
    listed $254,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $872 · $73/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,116 · $343/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,244/yr (+$270/mo · 372.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,853
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,598
• − Property taxes: −$872
• − Insurance: −$1,124
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,548
• − Management: −$2,548
• − HOA: −$648
• − Depreciation: −$6,543
• Taxable income: $4,972
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,193
• After-tax cash flow: $7,174/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Grangerland

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,546
• Household income: $84,673
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 205.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 19% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 20% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -187.56%
• Current HPI: 262.1879
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-11.8% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $224,900 HARMLS
• 2026-04-16 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-16 Listed $244,900 HARMLS
• 2026-03-09 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-03-09 Price Changed $244,900 HARMLS
• 2025-10-07 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-09-04 Price Changed $234,900 HARMLS
• 2025-07-19 Price Changed $239,900 HARMLS
• 2025-06-25 Price Changed $244,900 HARMLS
• 2025-04-18 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-04-18 Listed $254,900 HARMLS
• 2025-02-07 Listed $254,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

-12.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $872 · -0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.