22 Carolyn St · Colonial Park, PA 17112

$249,900

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,944 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1953 9,583 sqft lot Est $313k · 20% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Colonial Park area brick cape cod with three bedrooms, eat in kitchen with dining area, spacious living room and updated bath with walk in shower with sliding glass door. Thermal replacement windows throughout, six-year-old architectural shingled roof, partially finished basement with Harman wood pellet stove capable of heating the whole home. Updated HVAC unit with Central air conditioning, updated 200 Amp electric service, composite rear deck with vinyl railings. Hardwood floors under carpets. Plenty of off-street parking. Home in need of cosmetics but the heavy lifting has already been done for you. Priced to sell! Time for you to make your move!

Key facts

• 9,583 sq ft lot
• 4 parking spots
• Built 1953

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-281 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $200k (19.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $176k (29.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $176k (29.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.7% in Colonial Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#464 in PA, #4,237 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Central Dauphin SD (suburban): math 30% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #305 of 539 in PA (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mountain View El Sch (math 42% / reading 57%, grade D, #654 of 1,518 statewide, top 47%, 395 students, 99% FRL); Linglestown Ms (math 21% / reading 57%, grade F, #272 of 512 statewide, top 53%, 808 students, 99% FRL); Central Dauphin Shs (math 71% / reading 24%, grade D, #164 of 437 statewide, top 38%, 1,975 students, 33% FRL) — zoned schools average 77% FRL vs 33% district-wide (44 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 311 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 540 units permitted in Dauphin County in 2024 (194 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $175,895 (29.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.94%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.82%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 11.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $312,984
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
22 Carolyn St	0.00mi	3/1.0 (+1)	2,204 (+13%)	1mo	$255,000	$116	70
107 S Johnson St	0.50mi	2/1.5	1,960 (+1%)	8mo	$192,000	$98	69
144 S Lockwillow Ave	0.40mi	3/3.0 (+1)	2,079 (+7%)	0mo	$405,000	$195	59
115 Suffolk Rd	0.24mi	3/2.5 (+1)	2,142 (+10%)	6mo	$345,000	$161	58
4620 Harwich Rd	0.47mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,836 (-6%)	6mo	$329,900	$180	57
4617 Tarryton Rd	0.53mi	3/2.5 (+1)	2,038 (+5%)	2mo	$320,000	$157	56
4919 Bretney Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,720 (-12%)	1mo	$330,000	$192	45
131 Litchfield Rd	0.48mi	3/2.5 (+1)	2,158 (+11%)	9mo	$359,500	$167	43
5108 Ridgeview Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0 (+1)	2,164 (+11%)	8mo	$300,000	$139	42
5112 Ridgeview Dr	0.54mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,692 (-13%)	7mo	$300,000	$177	38
4912 Sunset Dr	0.72mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,689 (-13%)	2mo	$260,000	$154	36
5102 Irene Dr	0.74mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,745 (-10%)	7mo	$265,000	$152	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.64% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-60,785
• Equity at exit: $37,261

10-year hold

• IRR: -27.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.22×
• Total profit: $-85,504
• Equity at exit: $21,607

Cash invested: $69,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17112

• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 311
• Price-to-rent: 11.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,759 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$256 /mo · $3,073/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$369
• Net cashflow: $-281

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,115

Max offer price $200,231

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,475
• Closing costs: $7,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6101 Blue Valley Ave Harrisburg, PA	3.0	2.0	2352	$1,995	$0.85	23d	1	1.34mi
4112 Beechwood Ln Harrisburg, PA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1007	$1,542	$1.53	13d	8	1.44mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-18
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-16
   listed $249,900 Active
3. 2026-04-11
   historical $249,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,073 · $256/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,511 · $293/mo
• Expected delta: +$438/yr (+$36/mo · 14.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,107
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,998
• − Property taxes: −$3,073
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,689
• − Management: −$1,689
• − Depreciation: −$7,270
• Taxable loss: −$7,861
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,887
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,487/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Central Dauphin SD
• NCES district ID: 4205400
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $62,792
• Composite: 36.46/100
• National rank: #4664
• State rank: #305 of 539 in PA

Livability — Colonial Park

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #464
• US rank: #4237

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Colonial Park, PA
• County: Dauphin County · 247,857 people
• Metro: Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA
• Population (ZIP): 38,502
• Household income: $103,876
• Rent vs Own: 16.9% rent · 83.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 412.0

Population outlook (Dauphin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 281,628 people
• By 2030: 283,549 · +0.7%
• By 2040: 285,385 · +1.3%
• By 2050: 286,188 · +1.6%
• By 2075: 291,053 · +3.3%
• By 2100: 282,374 · +0.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Black 8% Asian 7% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Iranian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · India, Canada, China
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Other Indo-European 3% Spanish 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dauphin

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.9) · D 52.4% · R 46.5% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.1pp toward R · 2008: 9.1pp · 2024: 5.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.9 2020: D+8.5 2016: D+2.8 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+9.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -207.10%
• Current HPI: 244.5366
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.64%
• Metro: Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-18 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-16 Listed $249,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-11 Coming Soon $249,900 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,073 · +5.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.