2533 Woodlake Dr · Abilene, TX 79606

$349,500

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,459 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 180 Days on market

Built 1981 0.27 ac lot Est $425k · 18% under ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Just minutes from Dyess AFB and Hendricks Medical Center South, this home boasts 4 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, large eat in kitchen, two living areas and a formal dining room. The large covered patio and in ground pool is perfect for entertaining. All this home needs is your personal touch!

Key facts

• Large covered patio
• In ground pool
• 0.27 acre lot

Tags

• LARGE COVERED PATIO
• IN GROUND POOL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $350k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $457 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $350k).
• Recommended offer: $308k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#142 in TX, #4,037 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D, commute F.
• Abilene ISD (urban): math 32% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #575 of 826 in TX (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ward El (math 38% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,651 of 4,322 statewide, top 39%, 494 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+40.7%/yr); 288 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 508 units permitted in Taylor County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,703/mo this rent would consume 56% of the median local household income ($79k/yr) (locally 1181% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Taylor County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $98k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 180 days — a 12% lower offer ($308k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $307,560 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 180 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.60%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $425,407
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5518 Chimney Rock Rd	0.06mi	4/4.0	2,436 (-1%)	2mo	$319,900	$131	90
42 Riviera Cir	0.14mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,429 (-1%)	5mo	$425,000	$175	82
5501 Chimney Rock Rd	0.10mi	4/3.0	2,628 (+7%)	6mo	$399,900	$152	79
2558 Meadow Lake Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,598 (+6%)	2mo	$325,000	$125	75
5057 Quail Ter	0.51mi	4/3.5	2,398 (-2%)	1mo	$400,000	$167	70
2409 Lynbrook Dr	0.42mi	4/2.0	2,334 (-5%)	2mo	$460,000	$197	66
37 Pinehurst St	0.64mi	4/2.0	2,433 (-1%)	2mo	$375,000	$154	63
33 Tamarisk Cir	0.53mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,427 (-1%)	5mo	$420,000	$173	60
6 Augusta Dr	0.33mi	4/2.5	2,805 (+14%)	1mo	$399,900	$143	59
11 Hoylake Dr	0.46mi	4/3.0	2,739 (+11%)	1mo	$485,000	$177	59
94 Glen Abbey St	0.74mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,310 (-6%)	5mo	$409,000	$177	44
9 Tamarisk Cir	0.64mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,139 (-13%)	5mo	$385,000	$180	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-7,866
• Equity at exit: $52,112

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.23×
• Total profit: $120,067
• Equity at exit: $30,218

Cash invested: $97,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79606

• Rents YoY: 40.7%
• Active inventory: 288
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,703 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,833
• Tax from tax record: −$490 /mo · $5,881/yr
• Insurance: −$146
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$778
• Net cashflow: $457

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,125

Max offer price $349,500

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,375
• Closing costs: $10,485
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5733 Legacy Dr Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1843	$5,000	$2.71	4d	1	0.53mi
5400 Ridgeline Dr Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	2571	$6,000	$2.33	24d	1	0.75mi
2418 Helena Cir Abilene, TX	4.0	2.5	2478	$3,700	$1.49	10d	1	0.78mi
2510 Gilmer Ave Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1974	$2,995	$1.52	43d	1	0.84mi
3134 Winterhawk Dr Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1800	$2,795	$1.55	7d	1	0.85mi
3826 Crest Way Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1721	$2,695	$1.57	43d	1	1.11mi
4617 Catclaw Dr Abilene, TX	4.0	2.0	2263	$2,500	$1.10	13d	1	1.29mi
6901 Glen Abbey St Abilene, TX	4.0	2.0	1648	$3,795	$2.30	21d	1	1.29mi
7061 Tin Cup Dr Abilene, TX	4.0	2.0	1648	$3,495	$2.12	11d	1	1.43mi
3626 Yamini Dr Abilene, TX	4.0	2.0	1788	$2,799	$1.57	21d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-01-21
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-07
   historical Active Option Contract
3. 2025-08-13
   price $349,500
4. 2025-07-25
   listed $364,900 Active
5. 2007-06-18
   soldstatus
6. 1987-12-21
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,881 · $490/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,396 · $533/mo
• Expected delta: +$515/yr (+$43/mo · 8.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 13% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $44,439
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,577
• − Property taxes: −$5,881
• − Insurance: −$1,748
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,555
• − Management: −$3,555
• − Depreciation: −$10,167
• Taxable loss: −$45
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$11
• After-tax cash flow: $5,495/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Abilene ISD
• NCES district ID: 4807440
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $39,782
• Composite: 27.71/100
• National rank: #6909
• State rank: #575 of 826 in TX

Livability — Abilene

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #142
• US rank: #4037

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Abilene, TX
• County: Taylor County · 136,672 people
• City population: 136,672
• Metro: Abilene, TX
• Population (ZIP): 29,182
• Household income: $79,196
• Rent vs Own: 47.0% rent · 53.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1181.0

Population outlook (Taylor County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 145,270 people
• By 2030: 150,050 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 159,417 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 168,883 · +16.3%
• By 2075: 194,436 · +33.8%
• By 2100: 203,163 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 11% Black 6% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 10% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Taylor

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+49.8) · D 24.6% · R 74.4% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.2pp toward R · 2008: -45.6pp · 2024: -49.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+49.8 2020: R+45.3 2016: R+51.1 2012: R+53.6 2008: R+45.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -167.33%
• Current HPI: 179.2555
• Rent YoY: ▲ 40.73%
• Metro: Abilene, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.2% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-21 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-01-07 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2025-08-13 Price Changed $349,500 NTREIS
• 2025-07-25 Listed $364,900 NTREIS
• 2007-06-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1987-12-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,881 · -1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.