2528 E Oliver St · Baltimore, MD 21213

$50,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 658 sqft · Townhouse public records · 180 Days on market

Built 1900 1,900 sqft lot $76/sqft · 40% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +4.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* * Seller financing * * available AND seller can add $30k in reno money. $5k down payment required. This is ready for renovation. There are sold comps nearby for your sale appraisal or rental refi. SOLD comps: 1515 N Montford Ave SOLD $190k on 6/13/15 * * 1438 N Milton Ave SOLD $170k on 2/21/25.

Key facts

• Built 1900
• Listed 179 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $739 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $44k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 24.0% vs local median 6.0% in Baltimore — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in MD, #3,396 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Baltimore City Public Schools (urban): math 7% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #24 of 24 in MD (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 319 active listings in the ZIP; 31 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,273 units permitted in Baltimore city in 2024 (1,104 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($51k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $62 of equity ($346 loan paydown + $-284 appreciation (-0.6% local appreciation)).
• Baltimore County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-0.6% appreciation + 5.2% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 180 days — a 12% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $21k; list at $50k implies a 143% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $44,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 180 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.75% ✓
• Cap rate: 24.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 63.31%
• DSCR: 3.82
• GRM: 3.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $143,757
• List price: $50,000
• Delta: -65.22%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2305 Ashland Ave	0.53mi	3/1.0 (+1)	616 (-6%)	4mo	$78,000	$127	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.57% appreciation · 5.25% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 67.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.39×
• Total profit: $47,461
• Equity at exit: $13,115

10-year hold

• IRR: 70.2%
• Equity multiple: 9.62×
• Total profit: $120,749
• Equity at exit: $14,683

Cash invested: $14,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City Baltimore: 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+58

Just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21213

• Home prices YoY: -0.1%
• Rents YoY: 5.2%
• Active inventory: 319
• Price-to-rent: 3.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,373 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax from tax record: −$63 /mo · $752/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$288
• Net cashflow: $739

Break-even live

Break-even rent $438

Max offer price $50,000

Occupancy floor 41%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $767	-5% $753	+0% $739	+5% $725	+10% $710
Rent	-10% $630	-5% $684	+0% $739	+5% $793	+10% $847
Rate	-1.0pp $764	-0.5pp $751	base $739	+0.5pp $726	+1.0pp $713

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,500
• Closing costs: $1,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 31 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1323 N Kenwood Ave Unit 2 Baltimore, MD	1.0	1.0	600	$950	$1.58	44d	1	0.22mi
2221 E Preston St Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	658	$1,200	$1.82	24d	1	0.29mi
1401 N Potomac St Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	1.0	1.0	700	$1,099	$1.57	18d	1	0.35mi
1600 N Chester St Baltimore, MD	1.0	1.0	715	$636	$0.89	24d	1	0.36mi
2000 E North Ave Baltimore, MD	1.0	1.0	639	$836	$1.31	5d	4	0.55mi
723 N Patterson Park Ave Baltimore, MD	1.0	1.0	350	$1,000	$2.86	44d	1	0.62mi
500 N Rose St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	520	$1,200	$2.31	5d	1	0.75mi
1607 Hakesley Pl Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	720	$1,400	$1.94	44d	1	0.78mi
400 N Rose St #1 Baltimore, MD	1.0	1.0	588	$1,080	$1.84	44d	1	0.84mi
1209 N Caroline St Unit 2 Baltimore, MD	1.0	1.0	600	$1,300	$2.17	5d	1	0.88mi
3902 Erdman Ave Unit 2 Baltimore, MD	1.0	1.0	700	$1,175	$1.68	15d	1	0.88mi
3727 Bonview Ave Baltimore, MD	1.0	1.0	540	$1,199	$2.22	24d	1	1.01mi
3410 Belair Rd Unit 2/B Baltimore, MD	1.0	1.0	742	$1,225	$1.65	5d	1	1.15mi
107 S Collington Ave Unit 2 REAR Baltimore, MD	1.0	1.0	600	$1,800	$3.00	5d	1	1.24mi
3344 E Baltimore St Unit 2 Baltimore, MD	1.0	1.0	545	$1,250	$2.29	44d	1	1.25mi
4300 Orchard Ridge Blvd Baltimore, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1021	$1,420	$1.39	44d	1	1.25mi
2045 E 31st St Baltimore, MD	1.0	1.0	650	$895	$1.38	44d	1	1.27mi
520 Somerset St Baltimore, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	634	$1,578	$2.49	44d	1	1.29mi
1901 E Lombard St Baltimore, MD	1.0	1.0	650	$1,750	$2.69	24d	1	1.29mi
1901 E Lombard St Apt 2 Baltimore, MD	1.0	1.0	650	$1,650	$2.54	2d	1	1.29mi
1901 E Lombard St Apt 3 Baltimore, MD	1.0	1.0	650	$1,750	$2.69	5d	1	1.29mi
1901 E Lombard St Apt 4 Baltimore, MD	1.0	1.0	650	$1,750	$2.69	22d	1	1.29mi
1901 E Lombard St Baltimore, MD	1.0	1.0	660	$1,800	$2.73	22d	1	1.29mi
1901 E Lombard St Apt 3 Baltimore, MD	1.0	1.0	650	$1,750	$2.69	15d	1	1.29mi
1901 E Lombard St Baltimore, MD	1.0	1.0	702	$1,750	$2.49	44d	1	1.29mi
831 E Chase St Baltimore, MD	1.0	1.0	650	$850	$1.31	4d	1	1.31mi
420 Aisquith St Baltimore, MD	1.0	1.0	721	$1,226	$1.70	44d	1	1.34mi
821 E Eager St Unit 21-3F Baltimore, MD	1.0	1.0	700	$999	$1.43	5d	1	1.35mi
305 S Collington Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.5	722	$2,895	$4.01	18d	1	1.43mi
1100 Greenmount Ave Baltimore, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	839	$1,954	$2.33	3d	1	1.44mi
201 S Conkling St Baltimore, MD	1.0	1.0	740	$1,500	$2.03	3d	2	1.48mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-04
   days on market $50,000 Active 180 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $50,000 Active 179 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $50,000 Active 178 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $50,000 Active 177 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $50,000 Active 176 DOM
6. 2026-02-14
   price $50,000 303-char remark

   Show marketing remark (303 chars)

   * * Seller financing * * available AND seller can add $30k in reno money. $5k down payment required. This is ready for renovation. There are sold comps nearby for your sale appraisal or rental refi. SOLD comps: 1515 N Montford Ave SOLD $190k on 6/13/15 * * 1438 N Milton Ave SOLD $170k on 2/21/25.

7. 2025-12-30
   price $58,000 303-char remark

   Show marketing remark (303 chars)

   * * Seller financing * * available AND seller can add $30k in reno money. $5k down payment required. This is ready for renovation. There are sold comps nearby for your sale appraisal or rental refi. SOLD comps: 1515 N Montford Ave SOLD $190k on 6/13/15 * * 1438 N Milton Ave SOLD $170k on 2/21/25.

8. 2025-12-06
   listed $69,000 Active 303-char remark

   Show marketing remark (303 chars)

   * * Seller financing * * available AND seller can add $30k in reno money. $5k down payment required. This is ready for renovation. There are sold comps nearby for your sale appraisal or rental refi. SOLD comps: 1515 N Montford Ave SOLD $190k on 6/13/15 * * 1438 N Milton Ave SOLD $170k on 2/21/25.

9. 2025-12-06
   historical $69,000 303-char remark

   Show marketing remark (303 chars)

   * * Seller financing * * available AND seller can add $30k in reno money. $5k down payment required. This is ready for renovation. There are sold comps nearby for your sale appraisal or rental refi. SOLD comps: 1515 N Montford Ave SOLD $190k on 6/13/15 * * 1438 N Milton Ave SOLD $170k on 2/21/25.

10. 1988-03-04
    soldstatus $20,600

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $752 · $63/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $752 · $63/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,471
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,801
• − Property taxes: −$752
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,318
• − Management: −$1,318
• − Depreciation: −$1,455
• Taxable income: $8,579
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,059
• After-tax cash flow: $6,805/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baltimore City Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400090
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $42,108
• Composite: 10.08/100
• National rank: #9805
• State rank: #24 of 24 in MD

Livability — Baltimore

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #3396

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baltimore, MD
• County: Baltimore City · 558,601 people
• City population: 588,727
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 28,058
• Household income: $51,344
• Rent vs Own: 48.0% rent · 52.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1868.0

Population outlook (Baltimore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 624,249 people
• By 2030: 621,541 · -0.4%
• By 2040: 609,756 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 597,249 · -4.3%
• By 2075: 552,236 · -11.5%
• By 2100: 513,934 · -17.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 86% White 6% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Baltimore

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+73.0) · D 85.2% · R 12.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: 75.5pp · 2024: 73.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+73.0 2020: D+76.6 2016: D+74.6 2012: D+76.4 2008: D+75.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.57%
• Current HPI: 427.4453
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.25%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+142.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-14 Price Changed $50,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-12-30 Price Changed $58,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-12-06 Listed $69,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-12-06 Coming Soon $69,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 1988-03-04 Sold (Public Records) $20,600 Public Records

Property tax history

+17.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $752 · +10.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.