22 Beilke Rd · Millerton, NY 12546

$125,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,000 sqft · Other · 353 Days on market

Built 1860 9,583 sqft lot $62/sqft · 74% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investor’s Dream in Millerton – Prime Location with Endless Potential! Nestled just outside the charming Village of Millerton, this single-family residence offers a rare opportunity for investors, builders, or handy homeowners. In need of TLC, this property is brimming with potential and ready to be transformed into the perfect country getaway or income-generating asset. Enjoy the serenity of a peaceful setting with the Harlem Valley Rail Trail running directly behind the property—ideal for walking, biking, and exploring nature. Conveniently located just 5 minutes to the village, where you’ll find beloved local restaurants, boutique shops, and cafes. Only 15 minutes to the Metro-North train for an easy NYC commute or weekend escape. This is a must-see for those with vision—bring your tools and imagination to unlock the full potential of this ideally situated home. *Sold As-Is* *Highly Motivated Seller*

Key facts

• Boutique shops
• Easy nyc commute
• Local restaurants

Tags

• HARLEM VALLEY RAIL TRAIL
• LOCAL RESTAURANTS
• BOUTIQUE SHOPS
• EASY NYC COMMUTE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $110k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#594 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, employment A-; Watch: crime D, schools F, amenities F.
• Northeast Central School District (rural): math 47% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #592 of 755 in NY (top 78%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 41 active listings in the ZIP; 620 units permitted in Dutchess County in 2024 (242 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Dutchess County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 353 days — a 12% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $5k; list at $125k implies a 2281% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1860 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $110,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 353 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1860 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.86% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 37.40%
• DSCR: 2.66
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $484,634
• List price: $125,000
• Delta: -74.21%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 13 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 53.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.93×
• Total profit: $137,508
• Equity at exit: $112,610

10-year hold

• IRR: 46.6%
• Equity multiple: 11.01×
• Total profit: $350,234
• Equity at exit: $242,848

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12546

• Home prices YoY: 27.9%
• Active inventory: 41
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,324 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$38 /mo · $452/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$488
• Net cashflow: $1,091

Break-even live

Break-even rent $943

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 48%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,161	-5% $1,126	+0% $1,091	+5% $1,055	+10% $1,020
Rent	-10% $907	-5% $999	+0% $1,091	+5% $1,183	+10% $1,274
Rate	-1.0pp $1,154	-0.5pp $1,122	base $1,091	+0.5pp $1,058	+1.0pp $1,025

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $125,000 Active 353 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 351 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 350 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 349 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 348 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 346 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $125,000 Active 345 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 342 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $125,000 Active 341 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $125,000 Active 340 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $125,000 Active 339 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $125,000 Active 336 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 335 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 334 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 333 DOM
16. 2026-04-02
    status Active 945-char remark

    Show marketing remark (945 chars)

    Investor’s Dream in Millerton – Prime Location with Endless Potential! Nestled just outside the charming Village of Millerton, this single-family residence offers a rare opportunity for investors, builders, or handy homeowners. In need of TLC, this property is brimming with potential and ready to be transformed into the perfect country getaway or income-generating asset. Enjoy the serenity of a peaceful setting with the Harlem Valley Rail Trail running directly behind the property—ideal for walking, biking, and exploring nature. Conveniently located just 5 minutes to the village, where you’ll find beloved local restaurants, boutique shops, and cafes. Only 15 minutes to the Metro-North train for an easy NYC commute or weekend escape. This is a must-see for those with vision—bring your tools and imagination to unlock the full potential of this ideally situated home. *Sold As-Is* *Highly Motivated Seller*

17. 2026-03-31
    historical 945-char remark

    Show marketing remark (945 chars)

    Investor’s Dream in Millerton – Prime Location with Endless Potential! Nestled just outside the charming Village of Millerton, this single-family residence offers a rare opportunity for investors, builders, or handy homeowners. In need of TLC, this property is brimming with potential and ready to be transformed into the perfect country getaway or income-generating asset. Enjoy the serenity of a peaceful setting with the Harlem Valley Rail Trail running directly behind the property—ideal for walking, biking, and exploring nature. Conveniently located just 5 minutes to the village, where you’ll find beloved local restaurants, boutique shops, and cafes. Only 15 minutes to the Metro-North train for an easy NYC commute or weekend escape. This is a must-see for those with vision—bring your tools and imagination to unlock the full potential of this ideally situated home. *Sold As-Is* *Highly Motivated Seller*

18. 2025-11-24
    price $125,000 945-char remark

    Show marketing remark (945 chars)

    Investor’s Dream in Millerton – Prime Location with Endless Potential! Nestled just outside the charming Village of Millerton, this single-family residence offers a rare opportunity for investors, builders, or handy homeowners. In need of TLC, this property is brimming with potential and ready to be transformed into the perfect country getaway or income-generating asset. Enjoy the serenity of a peaceful setting with the Harlem Valley Rail Trail running directly behind the property—ideal for walking, biking, and exploring nature. Conveniently located just 5 minutes to the village, where you’ll find beloved local restaurants, boutique shops, and cafes. Only 15 minutes to the Metro-North train for an easy NYC commute or weekend escape. This is a must-see for those with vision—bring your tools and imagination to unlock the full potential of this ideally situated home. *Sold As-Is* *Highly Motivated Seller*

19. 2025-06-29
    listed $140,000 Active 945-char remark

    Show marketing remark (945 chars)

    Investor’s Dream in Millerton – Prime Location with Endless Potential! Nestled just outside the charming Village of Millerton, this single-family residence offers a rare opportunity for investors, builders, or handy homeowners. In need of TLC, this property is brimming with potential and ready to be transformed into the perfect country getaway or income-generating asset. Enjoy the serenity of a peaceful setting with the Harlem Valley Rail Trail running directly behind the property—ideal for walking, biking, and exploring nature. Conveniently located just 5 minutes to the village, where you’ll find beloved local restaurants, boutique shops, and cafes. Only 15 minutes to the Metro-North train for an easy NYC commute or weekend escape. This is a must-see for those with vision—bring your tools and imagination to unlock the full potential of this ideally situated home. *Sold As-Is* *Highly Motivated Seller*

20. 2024-02-06
    historical
21. 2023-08-04
    listed $169,000 Active
22. 2023-07-26
    price $158,000
23. 2023-05-30
    price $160,000
24. 2023-04-28
    price $159,999
25. 2023-03-08
    price $169,999
26. 2023-02-19
    listed $185,000 Active
27. 2023-01-23
    historical
28. 2022-09-15
    listed $185,000 Active
29. 1999-11-29
    soldstatus $5,250

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $452 · $38/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,282 · $107/mo
• Expected delta: +$830/yr (+$69/mo · 183.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 15% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,888
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$452
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,231
• − Management: −$2,231
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $11,711
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,811
• After-tax cash flow: $10,278/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Northeast Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3630390
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $58,965
• Composite: 39.37/100
• National rank: #8150
• State rank: #592 of 755 in NY

Livability — Millerton

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #594
• US rank: #10777

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime D Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,710

Population outlook (Dutchess County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 291,768 people
• By 2030: 287,131 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 274,881 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 259,971 · -10.9%
• By 2075: 235,366 · -19.3%
• By 2100: 208,786 · -28.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 6% Black 4% Native American 4% Asian 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Romanian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 17% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dutchess

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.4) · D 52.7% · R 47.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.2pp toward R · 2008: 8.6pp · 2024: 5.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.4 2020: D+9.6 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+6.6 2008: D+8.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 88.31%
• Current HPI: 405.1321
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+2281.0% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-02 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-31 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-24 Price Changed $125,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-29 Listed $140,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-02-06 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-08-04 Listed $169,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-07-26 Price Changed $158,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-05-30 Price Changed $160,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-04-28 Price Changed $159,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-03-08 Price Changed $169,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-02-19 Listed $185,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-01-23 Listing Removed — Smart MLS
• 2022-09-15 Listed $185,000 Smart MLS
• 1999-11-29 Sold (Public Records) $5,250 Public Records

Property tax history

-2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $452 · +3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.