16502 E Sandy Meadows Dr · Alvin, TX 77583

$220,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,368 sqft · Manufactured public records · 9 Days on market

Built 2024 Good condition Est $234k · 6% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.1/30.0
• ARV discount +10.2/15.0
• DSCR +7.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

2024 (18& apos; X76& apos; ) 3-2 Manuf. Home on 0.649 acre, fenced, septic with oversized 2 car garage with new comp. roof and lots of storage. Subdivision has a central water well. Large concrete slab area for Patio at rear of home. Owner wants to owner finance with $20,000.00 for 25 years at 8%. P & amp; I payment is $1,660.00 plus monthly taxes. You pay your own insurance.

Key facts

• New comp roof
• Central water well
• Built 2024

Tags

• OVERSIZED 2 CAR GARAGE
• NEW COMP ROOF
• CENTRAL WATER WELL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $220k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $355 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $212k (3.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $212k (3.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 2.7% in Alvin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#704 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Angleton ISD (suburban): math 36% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #375 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1139 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $212,362 (3.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.91%
• DSCR: 1.31
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $233,928
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16711 W Sandy Meadows Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-2%)	12mo	$230,000	$171	76

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-18,468
• Equity at exit: $32,803

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.87×
• Total profit: $-8,130
• Equity at exit: $19,022

Cash invested: $61,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77583

• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 1139
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,124 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax from tax record: −$77 /mo · $928/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$446
• Net cashflow: $355

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,674

Max offer price $220,000

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $479	-5% $417	+0% $355	+5% $293	+10% $230
Rent	-10% $187	-5% $271	+0% $355	+5% $439	+10% $523
Rate	-1.0pp $466	-0.5pp $411	base $355	+0.5pp $298	+1.0pp $240

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,000
• Closing costs: $6,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $220,000 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $220,000 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $220,000 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $220,000 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $220,000 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   remarks 378-char remark
7. 2026-06-10
   listed $220,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $928 · $77/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,026 · $336/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,098/yr (+$258/mo · 333.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,483
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,323
• − Property taxes: −$928
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,039
• − Management: −$2,039
• − Depreciation: −$6,400
• Taxable income: $654
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$157
• After-tax cash flow: $4,102/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This manufactured home is in good condition with no visible major repairs needed. It has a good exterior and landscaping, and potential for cosmetic updates to increase its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance the curb appeal and value of the home.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers or renters.
• Both Interior updates (paint, fixtures, etc.) — Fresh paint and updated fixtures can improve the home's appearance and value.
• Both Kitchen and bathroom updates — Modernizing the kitchen and bathrooms can significantly increase the home's value and appeal to a broader market.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance the curb appeal and value of the home. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers or renters. ↑
• Both Interior updates (paint, fixtures, etc.) — Fresh paint and updated fixtures can improve the home's appearance and value. ↑
• Both Kitchen and bathroom updates — Modernizing the kitchen and bathrooms can significantly increase the home's value and appeal to a broader market. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Angleton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808310
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $55,670
• Composite: 35.01/100
• National rank: #5046
• State rank: #375 of 826 in TX

Livability — Alvin

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #704
• US rank: #13148

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Brazoria County · 374,982 people
• City population: 51,892
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 52,747
• Household income: $119,287
• Rent vs Own: 9.8% rent · 90.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 251.0

Population outlook (Brazoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,414 people
• By 2030: 457,585 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 532,232 · +26.6%
• By 2050: 605,399 · +44.0%
• By 2075: 779,358 · +85.4%
• By 2100: 883,759 · +110.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 38% Black 34% White 20% Two or more races 18% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brazoria

• 2024 margin: R (+19.7) · D 39.5% · R 59.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -120.19%
• Current HPI: 198.6559
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.44%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Listed $220,000 FSBO.com

Property tax history

+52.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $928 · +1010.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.