Chatham XL Plan · Johnston, IA 50131

$310,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,922 sqft · SingleFamily · 956 Days on market

$12/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.9/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Cash flow +2.7/30.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Destiny Homes presents its Chatham XL plan. The Chatham XL plan features 4 bedrooms, 2.5 baths and approximately 1,900 sqft of living space. This 2 story home has everything a home should; including ample entertaining space within the open concept kitchen/great room/dining, quartz countertops, kitchen island and pantry. The primary ensuite with walk-in closet, plus 3 additional bedrooms, loft area + huge bonus room, bathroom and laundry room are located on the upper level. All Launch series homes are Energy Star rated & have a 2 year builder warranty. Striking the perfect balance between quality and efficiency, your path to homeownership starts right now! Ask about $2,000 in closing costs provided by preferred lender.

Key facts

• 3 parking spots
• Listed 956 days

🏗️ New construction. The $310,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $483,389.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $310k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-20k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $248k (20.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $218k (29.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $218k (29.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#59 in IA, #1,344 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Johnston Community School District (suburban): math 78% / reading 78% proficiency, ranked #24 of 289 in IA (top 8%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Horizon Elementary (math 71% / reading 67%, grade A-, #263 of 616 statewide, top 43%, 647 students, 36% FRL); Summit Middle School (math 80% / reading 77%, grade A+, #44 of 246 statewide, top 19%, 1,112 students, 27% FRL); Johnston Senior High School (math 76% / reading 79%, grade A-, #56 of 336 statewide, top 17%, 1,790 students, 23% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 382 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,953 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (540 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 956 days — a 12% lower offer ($273k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $218,482 (29.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 956 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.45% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -14.42%
• DSCR: 0.36
• GRM: 18.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $483,389
• List price: $310,000
• Delta: -35.87%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6739 Bright St	0.11mi	4/3.0	1,915 (-0%)	9mo	$745,000	$389	85
6713 NW 99th St	0.28mi	4/2.5	1,988 (+3%)	8mo	$537,500	$270	75
6728 NW 106th St	0.32mi	4/2.5	2,053 (+7%)	2mo	$374,340	$182	72
10123 NW 68th Ave	0.18mi	4/4.0	2,146 (+12%)	2mo	$539,900	$252	65
10022 NW 68th Ave	0.19mi	4/4.0	2,146 (+12%)	6mo	$569,900	$266	60
10525 Powell Ave	0.28mi	4/3.0	1,684 (-12%)	6mo	$390,000	$232	59
10598 NW 72nd Ln	0.46mi	4/3.0	1,669 (-13%)	4mo	$467,000	$280	52
10695 NW 72nd Ln	0.51mi	5/3.0 (+1)	1,810 (-6%)	11mo	$615,000	$340	50
6725 NW 93rd St	0.60mi	4/3.0	2,108 (+10%)	6mo	$590,000	$280	48
6419 NW 97th St	0.69mi	4/2.5	2,129 (+11%)	4mo	$431,300	$203	47
10100 Catalina Dr	0.68mi	4/2.5	1,742 (-9%)	7mo	$337,000	$193	47
9905 Mcwilliams Dr	0.72mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,758 (-8%)	10mo	$345,000	$196	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.47% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -45.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.37×
• Total profit: $-185,201
• Equity at exit: $72,075

10-year hold

• IRR: -93.4%
• Equity multiple: -1.27×
• Total profit: $-307,688
• Equity at exit: $41,795

Cash invested: $135,349 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Iowa: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; mostly landlord-friendly statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 50131

• Home prices YoY: -26.0%
• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 382
• Price-to-rent: 11.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,185 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,535
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$604 /mo · $7,251/yr
• Insurance: −$201
• HOA: −$12
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$459
• Net cashflow: $-1,627

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,244

Max offer price $248,020

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,293	-5% $-1,460	+0% $-1,627	+5% $-1,794	+10% $-1,961
Rent	-10% $-1,799	-5% $-1,713	+0% $-1,627	+5% $-1,540	+10% $-1,454
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,383	-0.5pp $-1,504	base $-1,627	+0.5pp $-1,752	+1.0pp $-1,879

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $120,847
• Closing costs: $14,502
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6954 Marigold Ct Johnston, IA	4.0	2.5	1709	$1,995	$1.17	25d	1	0.15mi
6957 Poppy Ct Johnston, IA	4.0	2.5	1356	$2,195	$1.62	45d	1	0.17mi
6957 Poppy Ct Johnston, IA	4.0	2.5	1709	$1,995	$1.17	16d	1	0.17mi
10340 Powell Ave Johnston, IA	5.0	3.0	2620	$3,200	$1.22	16d	1	0.17mi
6923 Bluebell Ct Johnston, IA	3.0	2.5	1565	$1,925	$1.23	16d	1	0.20mi
10425 Dorset Dr Unit 11 Johnston, IA	3.0	2.0	1295	$1,495	$1.15	45d	1	0.96mi
10457 Dorset Dr Unit 11 Johnston, IA	3.0	2.0	1295	$1,495	$1.15	45d	1	0.97mi
1360 NE Primrose Ln Grimes, IA	3.0	1.0–2.5	893	$1,700	$1.90	15d	37	1.13mi
1704 NE Gateway Ct Grimes, IA	3.0	1.0–2.0	945	$1,899	$2.01	15d	50	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $12 · $144/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $310,000 Active 956 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $310,000 Active 953 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $310,000 Active 952 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $310,000 Active 951 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $310,000 Active 950 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $310,000 Active 948 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $310,000 Active 947 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $310,000 Active 945 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $310,000 Active 944 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $310,000 Active 943 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $310,000 Active 942 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $310,000 Active 939 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $310,000 Active 938 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $310,000 Active 937 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $310,000 Active 936 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $310,000 Active 935 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $310,000 Active 934 DOM
18. 2023-11-08
    listed $310,000 Active 733-char remark

    Show marketing remark (733 chars)

    Destiny Homes presents its Chatham XL plan. The Chatham XL plan features 4 bedrooms, 2.5 baths and approximately 1,900 sqft of living space. This 2 story home has everything a home should; including ample entertaining space within the open concept kitchen/great room/dining, quartz countertops, kitchen island and pantry. The primary ensuite with walk-in closet, plus 3 additional bedrooms, loft area + huge bonus room, bathroom and laundry room are located on the upper level. All Launch series homes are Energy Star rated & have a 2 year builder warranty. Striking the perfect balance between quality and efficiency, your path to homeownership starts right now! Ask about $2,000 in closing costs provided by preferred lender.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,218
• − Mortgage interest: −$27,077
• − Property taxes: −$7,251
• − Insurance: −$2,417
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,097
• − Management: −$2,097
• − HOA: −$144
• − Depreciation: −$14,062
• Taxable loss: −$28,928
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,943
• After-tax cash flow: $-12,576/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Johnston Community School District
• NCES district ID: 1915450
• Math proficiency: 78% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 78% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $85,758
• Composite: 69.43/100
• National rank: #309
• State rank: #24 of 289 in IA

Livability — Johnston

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #59
• US rank: #1344

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Johnston, IA
• County: Polk County · 453,298 people
• City population: 24,583
• Metro: Des Moines-West Des Moines, IA
• Population (ZIP): 24,583
• Household income: $106,551
• Rent vs Own: 28.9% rent · 71.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 685.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 548,042 people
• By 2030: 588,557 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 670,629 · +22.4%
• By 2050: 752,830 · +37.4%
• By 2075: 955,069 · +74.3%
• By 2100: 1,115,436 · +103.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Black 9% Asian 7% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% American 3% Swiss 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · China, Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Chinese 2% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: D (+10.9) · D 54.8% · R 43.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.7pp toward R · 2008: 14.6pp · 2024: 10.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.9 2020: D+15.2 2016: D+11.5 2012: D+14.2 2008: D+14.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.38%
• Current HPI: 203.3508
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.47%
• Metro: Des Moines-West Des Moines, IA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.48%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$16B
▸Retail / Convenience	1	$15B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2023-11-08 Listed $310,000 Zillow