Kendall Plan · Texas City, TX 77568

$321,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,929 sqft · SingleFamily · 269 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Kendall floor plan is available now for an incredible price at Lago Mar! This one-story home features four large bedrooms and two bathrooms and includes a variety of amazing upgrades included in LGI Homes' CompleteHome Plus interior package like energy-efficient kitchen appliances, gorgeous granite countertops and stunning wood cabinetry. The open concept layout is highlighted by a chef-ready kitchen that overlooks the dining and living areas. The Kendall floor plan features a large master bedroom suite that is situated on the opposite side of the home from the additional three bedrooms. Lago Mar boasts a 12-acre Crystal Lagoon with a splash pad and a Recreation Center with a gym, playground, and a pool.

Key facts

• Crystal lagoon
• Chef-ready kitchen
• Splash pad

Tags

• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• WOOD CABINETRY
• CHEF-READY KITCHEN
• RECREATION CENTER
• SPLASH PAD
• CRYSTAL LAGOON

🏗️ New construction. The $321,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $336,843.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $322k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $217 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $322k).
• Recommended offer: $283k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 4.3% in Texas City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#907 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Dickinson ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #366 of 826 in TX (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+4.0%/yr); 661 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,222/mo this rent would consume 52% of the median local household income ($75k/yr) (locally 700% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 269 days — a 12% lower offer ($283k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $283,272 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 269 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.76%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $336,843
• List price: $321,900
• Delta: -4.44%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3026 Banyan Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,850 (-4%)	1mo	$345,900	$187	80
14117 Baikal Manor Dr	0.19mi	4/2.0	2,063 (+7%)	1mo	$312,990	$152	79
14001 Baikal Manor Dr	0.29mi	4/2.0	1,804 (-6%)	1mo	$321,990	$178	75
14006 Baikal Manor Dr	0.31mi	4/2.0	2,126 (+10%)	1mo	$325,990	$153	68
3315 Hidden Mist Dr	0.16mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,160 (+12%)	1mo	$344,990	$160	65
2917 Mariner Island Dr	0.74mi	4/2.0	1,922 (-0%)	1mo	$360,990	$188	64
14121 Baikal Manor Dr	0.18mi	4/3.0	2,214 (+15%)	1mo	$349,990	$158	63
13525 Bonita Island Way	0.68mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,900 (-2%)	1mo	$288,900	$152	60
13714 Ballast Green Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,738 (-10%)	1mo	$344,560	$198	58
13220 Harbor Point Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,819 (-6%)	1mo	$354,990	$195	53
2921 Mariner Island Dr	0.74mi	4/2.0	2,081 (+8%)	1mo	$375,990	$181	52
2211 Manila Ln	0.74mi	4/3.0	1,817 (-6%)	1mo	$295,000	$162	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.95% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-37,595
• Equity at exit: $50,224

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.98×
• Total profit: $-1,726
• Equity at exit: $29,124

Cash invested: $94,316 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77568

• Home prices YoY: -22.7%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 661
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,222 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,766
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$421 /mo · $5,053/yr
• Insurance: −$140
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$677
• Net cashflow: $217

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,947

Max offer price $336,843

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $450	-5% $334	+0% $217	+5% $101	+10% $-16
Rent	-10% $-37	-5% $90	+0% $217	+5% $344	+10% $472
Rate	-1.0pp $387	-0.5pp $303	base $217	+0.5pp $130	+1.0pp $41

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $84,211
• Closing costs: $10,105
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13817 Starboard Reach Dr Santa Fe, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–3.5	2268	$3,630	$1.60	0d	1	0.01mi
6136 Lago Mar Blvd Dickinson, TX	3.0	2.0	1417	$1,900	$1.34	45d	1	1.07mi
6130 Lago Mar Blvd Texas City, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1066	$2,199	$2.06	5d	2	1.22mi
12524 Jetty Cv Santa Fe, TX	3.0	2.0	1803	$2,506	$1.39	23d	1	1.43mi
640 Totem Trail Dr La Marque, TX	4.0	2.5	2134	$2,309	$1.08	12d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $321,900 Active 269 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $321,900 Active 266 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $321,900 Active 265 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $321,900 Active 264 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $321,900 Active 263 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $321,900 Active 261 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $321,900 Active 257 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $321,900 Active 256 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $321,900 Active 255 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $321,900 Active 252 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $321,900 Active 251 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $321,900 Active 250 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $321,900 Active 249 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $321,900 Active 248 DOM
15. 2026-04-02
    price $321,900 717-char remark

    Show marketing remark (717 chars)

    The Kendall floor plan is available now for an incredible price at Lago Mar! This one-story home features four large bedrooms and two bathrooms and includes a variety of amazing upgrades included in LGI Homes' CompleteHome Plus interior package like energy-efficient kitchen appliances, gorgeous granite countertops and stunning wood cabinetry. The open concept layout is highlighted by a chef-ready kitchen that overlooks the dining and living areas. The Kendall floor plan features a large master bedroom suite that is situated on the opposite side of the home from the additional three bedrooms. Lago Mar boasts a 12-acre Crystal Lagoon with a splash pad and a Recreation Center with a gym, playground, and a pool.

16. 2026-01-06
    price $317,900 717-char remark

    Show marketing remark (717 chars)

    The Kendall floor plan is available now for an incredible price at Lago Mar! This one-story home features four large bedrooms and two bathrooms and includes a variety of amazing upgrades included in LGI Homes' CompleteHome Plus interior package like energy-efficient kitchen appliances, gorgeous granite countertops and stunning wood cabinetry. The open concept layout is highlighted by a chef-ready kitchen that overlooks the dining and living areas. The Kendall floor plan features a large master bedroom suite that is situated on the opposite side of the home from the additional three bedrooms. Lago Mar boasts a 12-acre Crystal Lagoon with a splash pad and a Recreation Center with a gym, playground, and a pool.

17. 2025-10-04
    price $313,900 717-char remark

    Show marketing remark (717 chars)

    The Kendall floor plan is available now for an incredible price at Lago Mar! This one-story home features four large bedrooms and two bathrooms and includes a variety of amazing upgrades included in LGI Homes' CompleteHome Plus interior package like energy-efficient kitchen appliances, gorgeous granite countertops and stunning wood cabinetry. The open concept layout is highlighted by a chef-ready kitchen that overlooks the dining and living areas. The Kendall floor plan features a large master bedroom suite that is situated on the opposite side of the home from the additional three bedrooms. Lago Mar boasts a 12-acre Crystal Lagoon with a splash pad and a Recreation Center with a gym, playground, and a pool.

18. 2025-09-26
    listed $309,900 Active 717-char remark

    Show marketing remark (717 chars)

    The Kendall floor plan is available now for an incredible price at Lago Mar! This one-story home features four large bedrooms and two bathrooms and includes a variety of amazing upgrades included in LGI Homes' CompleteHome Plus interior package like energy-efficient kitchen appliances, gorgeous granite countertops and stunning wood cabinetry. The open concept layout is highlighted by a chef-ready kitchen that overlooks the dining and living areas. The Kendall floor plan features a large master bedroom suite that is situated on the opposite side of the home from the additional three bedrooms. Lago Mar boasts a 12-acre Crystal Lagoon with a splash pad and a Recreation Center with a gym, playground, and a pool.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,658
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,868
• − Property taxes: −$5,053
• − Insurance: −$1,684
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,093
• − Management: −$3,093
• − Depreciation: −$9,799
• Taxable loss: −$2,931
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$704
• After-tax cash flow: $3,309/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 10 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This Kendall floor plan home is in good condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. Minor updates to the exterior siding and carpet can further enhance its value for resale or rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and home value.
• Rental Replace carpet in bedrooms — Carpet can be worn and replacing it can make the space more appealing to renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and home value. ↑
• Rental Replace carpet in bedrooms — Carpet can be worn and replacing it can make the space more appealing to renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dickinson ISD
• NCES district ID: 4817070
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $61,318
• Composite: 35.16/100
• National rank: #5005
• State rank: #366 of 826 in TX

Livability — Texas City

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #907
• US rank: #16268

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Texas City, TX
• County: Galveston County · 357,330 people
• City population: 49,936
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 23,083
• Household income: $74,694
• Rent vs Own: 28.0% rent · 72.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 700.0

Population outlook (Galveston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 390,640 people
• By 2030: 425,226 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 493,765 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 559,698 · +43.3%
• By 2075: 719,260 · +84.1%
• By 2100: 819,628 · +109.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: White 37% Hispanic / Latino 29% Black 26% Two or more races 17% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 21% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Galveston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.7% · R 63.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -69.39%
• Current HPI: 236.0239
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+3.9% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $321,900 Zillow
• 2026-01-06 Price Changed $317,900 Zillow
• 2025-10-04 Price Changed $313,900 Zillow
• 2025-09-26 Listed $309,900 Zillow