3100 S Kinney Rd #216 · Tucson Estates, AZ 85713

$49,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 444 sqft · Manufactured · 115 Days on market

Built 1994 Fair condition $111/sqft · 24% below area Est $65k · 24% under ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Schools +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 2 bed/ 1 bath home is in the Western Way RV Resort community, offering low maintenance living and access to fantastic amenities. This is a Vibrant active adult community. This 444 sq ft residence features a bright great room, a kitchen with electric range, refrigerator, and lots of cabinets. One of the bedrooms features a large mirrored closet . Outside, find low-care landscaping, a covered porch/deck, a carport, and a large storage shed. Community perks include a pool, spa, library, rec center, pickle ball, exercise facilities, billiard room and puzzle/craft room. Monthly Lot Rent of $573

Key facts

• Low-care landscaping
• Covered porch
• Electric range

Tags

• BRIGHT GREAT ROOM
• ELECTRIC RANGE
• LARGE MIRRORED CLOSET
• LOW-CARE LANDSCAPING
• COVERED PORCH
• CARPORT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $50k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $505 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $45k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.5% vs local median 4.4% in Tucson Estates — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#137 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, schools F, amenities F.
• Tucson Unified District (4403) (urban): math 14% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #190 of 249 in AZ (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 264 active listings in the ZIP; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $342 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.2% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 115 days — a 9% lower offer ($45k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $45,045 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 115 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 43.74%
• DSCR: 2.95
• GRM: 3.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $65,485
• List price: $49,500
• Delta: -24.41%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 37.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.53×
• Total profit: $21,243
• Equity at exit: $7,381

10-year hold

• IRR: 42.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.51×
• Total profit: $48,630
• Equity at exit: $4,280

Cash invested: $13,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85713

• Home prices YoY: -24.5%
• Rents YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 264
• Price-to-rent: 3.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,073 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$260
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$62 /mo · $742/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$225
• Net cashflow: $505

Break-even live

Break-even rent $433

Max offer price $49,500

Occupancy floor 48%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,375
• Closing costs: $1,485
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $49,500 Active 115 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $49,500 Active 114 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $49,500 Active 113 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $49,500 Active 112 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $49,500 Active 110 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $49,500 Active 107 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $49,500 Active 106 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $49,500 Active 105 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $49,500 Active 104 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $49,500 Active 101 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $49,500 Active 100 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $49,500 Active 99 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $49,500 Active 98 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $49,500 Active 97 DOM
15. 2026-05-12
    price $49,500 602-char remark

    Show marketing remark (602 chars)

    This 2 bed/ 1 bath home is in the Western Way RV Resort community, offering low maintenance living and access to fantastic amenities. This is a Vibrant active adult community. This 444 sq ft residence features a bright great room, a kitchen with electric range, refrigerator, and lots of cabinets. One of the bedrooms features a large mirrored closet . Outside, find low-care landscaping, a covered porch/deck, a carport, and a large storage shed. Community perks include a pool, spa, library, rec center, pickle ball, exercise facilities, billiard room and puzzle/craft room. Monthly Lot Rent of $573

16. 2026-02-23
    listed $54,000 Active 602-char remark

    Show marketing remark (602 chars)

    This 2 bed/ 1 bath home is in the Western Way RV Resort community, offering low maintenance living and access to fantastic amenities. This is a Vibrant active adult community. This 444 sq ft residence features a bright great room, a kitchen with electric range, refrigerator, and lots of cabinets. One of the bedrooms features a large mirrored closet . Outside, find low-care landscaping, a covered porch/deck, a carport, and a large storage shed. Community perks include a pool, spa, library, rec center, pickle ball, exercise facilities, billiard room and puzzle/craft room. Monthly Lot Rent of $573

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,870
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,773
• − Property taxes: −$742
• − Insurance: −$248
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,030
• − Management: −$1,030
• − Depreciation: −$1,440
• Taxable income: $5,608
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,346
• After-tax cash flow: $4,717/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This 2-bedroom, 1-bathroom manufactured home in Western Way RV Resort requires moderate repairs and maintenance to improve its condition and value. Potential buyers and renters will appreciate the low-maintenance living and access to community amenities.

Repairs flagged

• Minor exterior siding — slight wear
• Minor interior paint — some wear
• Minor landscaping — low-care landscaping

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both repair exterior siding — Improved exterior appearance boosts both resale and rental value
• Both landscaping — Aesthetic improvements increase curb appeal and attract potential buyers

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
exterior siding · slight wear	Minor	$500–3,000
interior paint · some wear	Minor	$500–3,000
landscaping · low-care landscaping	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$1,500–9,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both repair exterior siding — Improved exterior appearance boosts both resale and rental value ↑
• Both landscaping — Aesthetic improvements increase curb appeal and attract potential buyers ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tucson Unified District (4403)
• NCES district ID: 0408800
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $40,962
• Composite: 15.78/100
• National rank: #9270
• State rank: #190 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Tucson Estates

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #137
• US rank: #16650

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tucson Estates, AZ
• County: Pima County · 1,012,107 people
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 46,439
• Household income: $53,152
• Rent vs Own: 37.2% rent · 62.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1517.0

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 70% Two or more races 30% White 21% Native American 5% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 67%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Lithuanian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 49% English-only · Spanish 49%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -107.07%
• Current HPI: 329.8338
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.21%
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-8.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $49,500 MLSSAZ
• 2026-02-23 Listed $54,000 MLSSAZ