74 Blue Water Rd · Rena Lara, MS 38720

$45,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 616 sqft · Other public records · 105 Days on market

Built 1960 1.00 ac lot ↓ 40% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

74 Blue Water Road Alligator, MS 38670 Make your lake house dreams a reality with this affordable waterfront fixer upper! 4 Bedroom | 3 Bath | Approx. 1,800 Sq Ft | Manufactured Home Located behind the levee, this property overlooks the beautiful Desoto Lake. Down a winding gravel drive and through the shade of trees, the setting feels private and peaceful while still offering lake and river life! A public boat ramp nearby provides access to Desoto Lake and the mighty Mississippi River — perfect for boating, fishing, and outdoor adventures. Home Features: -Living room with fireplace -Separate den -4 bedrooms -3 bathrooms -Laundry room -Kitchen with dishwasher, stove, & microwave -Vaulted ceiling -Sheetrock walls with crown molding -Central heat & air -Linoleum & carpet flooring -Asphalt shingle roof -Septic tank -Community water -Gas & propane hookups -Multiple French doors open to a deck that runs the full length of the home and overlooks the lake — a perfect spot to witness sunset after a day on the water. -A large covered front porch offers another relaxing outdoor space to enjoy the quiet surroundings. Own your own getaway on Desoto Lake — perfect for a hunting or fishing retreat, weekend escape, or lake house. Extras to Note: Being sold AS-IS. Property is located on Levee Board land — contract must be approved by the board. Flood Insurance required

Key facts

• 1 acre lot
• Built 1960
• Listed 105 days

Tags

• OVERLOOKS DESOTO LAKE
• PUBLIC BOAT RAMP NEARBY
• MULTIPLE FRENCH DOORS
• LARGE COVERED FRONT PORCH
• RELAXING OUTDOOR SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath other listed at $45k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $399 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($864 rent vs $45k).
• Recommended offer: $41k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Coahoma County School District (rural): math 16% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #103 of 130 in MS (top 79%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 97% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 4 active listings in the ZIP; 26 units permitted in Coahoma County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($311 loan paydown + $952 appreciation (2.1% local appreciation)).
• Coahoma County population projected at -36% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (2.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 105 days — a 9% lower offer ($41k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $40,950 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 105 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.92% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 37.99%
• DSCR: 2.69
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.11% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 42.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.28×
• Total profit: $28,753
• Equity at exit: $18,031

10-year hold

• IRR: 42.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.51×
• Total profit: $69,425
• Equity at exit: $26,183

Cash invested: $12,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 38720

• Home prices YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 4
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $864 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$236
• Tax from tax record: −$29 /mo · $347/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$181
• Net cashflow: $399

Break-even live

Break-even rent $359

Max offer price $45,000

Occupancy floor 49%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,250
• Closing costs: $1,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-02-10
   listed $45,000 Active 1496-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1496 chars)

   74 Blue Water Road Alligator, MS 38670 Make your lake house dreams a reality with this affordable waterfront fixer upper! 4 Bedroom | 3 Bath | Approx. 1,800 Sq Ft | Manufactured Home Located behind the levee, this property overlooks the beautiful Desoto Lake. Down a winding gravel drive and through the shade of trees, the setting feels private and peaceful while still offering lake and river life! A public boat ramp nearby provides access to Desoto Lake and the mighty Mississippi River — perfect for boating, fishing, and outdoor adventures. Home Features: -Living room with fireplace -Separate den -4 bedrooms -3 bathrooms -Laundry room -Kitchen with dishwasher, stove, & microwave -Vaulted ceiling -Sheetrock walls with crown molding -Central heat & air -Linoleum & carpet flooring -Asphalt shingle roof -Septic tank -Community water -Gas & propane hookups -Multiple French doors open to a deck that runs the full length of the home and overlooks the lake — a perfect spot to witness sunset after a day on the water. -A large covered front porch offers another relaxing outdoor space to enjoy the quiet surroundings. Own your own getaway on Desoto Lake — perfect for a hunting or fishing retreat, weekend escape, or lake house. Extras to Note: Being sold AS-IS. Property is located on Levee Board land — contract must be approved by the board. Flood Insurance required

2. 2025-03-06
   historical
3. 2025-01-27
   price $65,000
4. 2024-12-29
   status Active
5. 2024-12-28
   historical
6. 2024-06-28
   listed $75,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $347 · $29/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $356 · $30/mo
• Expected delta: +$9/yr (+$1/mo · 2.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,368
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,521
• − Property taxes: −$347
• − Insurance: −$225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$829
• − Management: −$829
• − Depreciation: −$1,309
• Taxable income: $4,307
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,034
• After-tax cash flow: $3,753/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Coahoma County School District
• NCES district ID: 2801110
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $27,590
• Composite: 13.28/100
• National rank: #9544
• State rank: #103 of 130 in MS

Livability — Rena Lara

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 549

Population outlook (Coahoma County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 21,158 people
• By 2030: 19,442 · -8.1%
• By 2040: 16,248 · -23.2%
• By 2050: 13,486 · -36.3%
• By 2075: 8,777 · -58.5%
• By 2100: 6,568 · -69.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Black 30% Two or more races 13% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 13% Lithuanian 1% Scotch-Irish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Coahoma

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.8) · D 69.4% · R 29.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.5pp toward R · 2008: 44.3pp · 2024: 39.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.8 2020: D+42.9 2016: D+44.4 2012: D+50.3 2008: D+44.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.11%
• Current HPI: 92.5453
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-40.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-10 Listed $45,000 MLSU
• 2025-03-06 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2025-01-27 Price Changed $65,000 MLSU
• 2024-12-29 Relisted — MLSU
• 2024-12-28 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2024-06-28 Listed $75,000 MLSU

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $347 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.