490 Shin Pond Rd · Patten, ME 04765

$175,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,404 sqft · MultiFamily · 14 Days on market

Built 1994 45 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.7/30.0
• DSCR +8.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.1/10.0
• Appreciation +5.5/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks

This tax acquired property is in need of extensive repairs and clean-up. There is a nice concrete basement under the mobile home. The garage is well built, placed on a concrete slab and also in need of clean-up and repairs. The 45+/- acre lot has 450 feet of frontage on Shin Pond Road and has not been harvested in about 15-20 years.

Key facts

• Well built garage
• 450 feet of frontage
• 45 acre lot

Tags

• CONCRETE BASEMENT
• WELL BUILT GARAGE
• 450 FEET OF FRONTAGE
• 45 ACRE LOT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $418 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• RSU 89 (rural): math 30% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #136 of 185 in ME (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 17 active listings in the ZIP; 440 units permitted in Penobscot County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (1.0% local appreciation)).
• Penobscot County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $175,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.24%
• DSCR: 1.46
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.01% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.61×
• Total profit: $30,088
• Equity at exit: $59,857

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.91×
• Total profit: $93,762
• Equity at exit: $79,634

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Maine: 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Portland has rent control referendum (2020); strong habitability; security deposit caps.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 04765

• Home prices YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 17
• Price-to-rent: 13.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,126 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$271 /mo · $3,247/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$446
• Net cashflow: $418

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,596

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 75%

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	3	1.5	$2,126
Total (2 units)			$2,126

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-14
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-31
   listed $175,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast ME · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,247 · $271/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,247 · $271/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥87°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 12% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,512
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$3,247
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,041
• − Management: −$2,041
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable income: $2,414
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$579
• After-tax cash flow: $4,440/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: RSU 89
• NCES district ID: 2314838
• Math proficiency: 30% —
• Reading proficiency: 45% —
• Median HH income: $36,317
• Composite: 33.62/100
• National rank: #10477
• State rank: #136 of 185 in ME

Livability — Patten

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,452

Population outlook (Penobscot County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 149,928 people
• By 2030: 146,386 · -2.4%
• By 2040: 135,952 · -9.3%
• By 2050: 123,864 · -17.4%
• By 2075: 97,825 · -34.8%
• By 2100: 77,196 · -48.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (98%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 98% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 11% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Penobscot

• 2024 margin: R (+10.9) · D 43.6% · R 54.5% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: 5.0pp · 2024: -10.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.9 2020: R+8.3 2016: R+10.9 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+5.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.01%
• Current HPI: 108.8434
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Pending — MREIS
• 2026-03-31 Listed $175,000 MREIS

Property tax history

+5.6%/yr

Latest (2024): $3,247 · +23.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.