2834 Virginia Ave · Baltimore, MD 21215

$33,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,350 sqft · Townhouse public records · 22 Days on market

Built 1960

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This property is being sold As Is. The Buyer(s) are responsible for any and all repairs, inspections, certification and C/O. All bid are to be submitted to www. HUDHOMESTORE.com.

Key facts

• Built 1960
• Listed 22 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $33k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $33k).
• Recommended offer: $33k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 50.6% vs local median 6.0% in Baltimore — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in MD, #3,396 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Baltimore City Public Schools (urban): math 7% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #24 of 24 in MD (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.4%/yr); 351 active listings in the ZIP; 35 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 54% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,273 units permitted in Baltimore city in 2024 (1,104 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($52k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $228 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $990 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baltimore County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.4% rent growth), your $9k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($33k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $32,505 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 5.55% ✓
• Cap rate: 50.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 158.20%
• DSCR: 8.04
• GRM: 1.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $187,650
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2361 Sundew Ter #2361	0.33mi	3/2.5	1,298 (-4%)	3mo	$181,000	$139	72
3026 Virginia Ave	0.27mi	3/1.0	1,442 (+7%)	3mo	$75,000	$52	71
2312 Pennyroyal Ter	0.42mi	3/2.5	1,305 (-3%)	3mo	$185,000	$142	69
4912 Palmer Ave	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,400 (+4%)	1mo	$60,000	$43	67
4911 Queensberry Ave	0.47mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,390 (+3%)	2mo	$155,000	$112	66
2523 Boarman Ave	0.38mi	3/1.0	1,450 (+7%)	3mo	$82,500	$57	65
2531 Boarman Ave	0.39mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,479 (+10%)	4mo	$254,000	$172	53
4903 Chalgrove Ave	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,536 (+14%)	2mo	$187,000	$122	53
2227 Clove Ter	0.40mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,150 (-15%)	4mo	$153,500	$133	46
4023 Reisterstown Rd	0.73mi	4/4.0 (+1)	1,400 (+4%)	2mo	$250,000	$179	43
3223 Spaulding Ave	0.73mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,500 (+11%)	0mo	$219,900	$147	40
3716 Beehler Ave	0.71mi	4/4.0 (+1)	1,445 (+7%)	3mo	$265,000	$183	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.41% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 8.70×
• Total profit: $71,184
• Equity at exit: $4,920

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 18.06×
• Total profit: $157,620
• Equity at exit: $2,853

Cash invested: $9,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City Baltimore: 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+58

Just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21215

• Rents YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 351
• Price-to-rent: 1.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,831 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$173
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$41 /mo · $495/yr
• Insurance: −$14
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$384
• Net cashflow: $1,218

Break-even live

Break-even rent $289

Max offer price $33,000

Occupancy floor 28%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,250
• Closing costs: $990
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 35 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2824 Edgecombe Cir S Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	950	$1,475	$1.55	21d	1	0.17mi
4714 Greenspring Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	890	$1,295	$1.46	43d	1	0.17mi
2915 Oakford Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1102	$1,600	$1.45	17d	1	0.26mi
2454 W Cold Spring Ln Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,650	$1.38	23d	1	0.30mi
2530 Edgecombe Cir N Baltimore, MD	2.0–3.0	1.0	920	$1,325	$1.44	2d	4	0.32mi
2619 Loyola Northway Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,995	$1.43	23d	1	0.41mi
2415 Loyola Southway Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1200	$2,033	$1.69	43d	1	0.55mi
5115 Pembridge Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1088	$2,150	$1.98	43d	1	0.58mi
4230 Towanda Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,800	$1.29	17d	1	0.64mi
4828 Beaufort Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.5	1200	$1,850	$1.54	23d	1	0.68mi
2001 W Cold Spring Ln Baltimore, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1154	$3,505	$3.04	1d	31	0.72mi
3735 Manchester Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,350	$1.35	4d	1	0.73mi
3822 Pall Mall Rd Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1320	$1,875	$1.42	43d	1	0.81mi
5000 Litchfield Ave #1 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,100	$1.00	43d	1	0.85mi
5301 Maple Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	960	$1,700	$1.77	43d	1	0.89mi
3784 Columbus Dr Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1250	$2,200	$1.76	23d	1	0.90mi
5340 Maple Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,950	$1.62	43d	1	0.95mi
4320 Roland Heights Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.5	1800	$3,300	$1.83	17d	1	0.97mi
4322 Roland Heights Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	3.0	1800	$3,000	$1.67	43d	1	0.97mi
4319 Medfield Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.5	1800	$3,100	$1.72	43d	1	1.01mi
2080 Rockrose Ave Unit 2080-201 Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	1080	$2,100	$1.94	23d	1	1.06mi
2432 Everton Rd Unit 2435 A Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.5	1000	$1,500	$1.50	23d	1	1.10mi
3632 Parkdale Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1400	$3,000	$2.14	43d	1	1.13mi
3204 Sequoia Ave Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.5	1791	$2,600	$1.45	43d	1	1.15mi
2310 Sulgrave Ave Unit 3 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	978	$1,700	$1.74	43d	1	1.18mi
2078 Druid Park Dr Baltimore, MD	2.0	3.0	1500	$2,500	$1.67	43d	1	1.18mi
2078 Druid Park Dr Unit 4 Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.5	1500	$2,500	$1.67	43d	1	1.19mi
4429 Newport Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1248	$2,400	$1.92	43d	1	1.19mi
5343 Nelson Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,215	$1.22	23d	1	1.21mi
103 Cross Keys Rd Unit R103D2 Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	1157	$2,000	$1.73	23d	1	1.30mi
3508 Grantley Rd Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1250	$1,350	$1.08	23d	1	1.33mi
4010 Fernhill Ave Unit 2 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,500	$1.36	43d	1	1.35mi
4119 Falls Rd Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1316	$2,500	$1.90	43d	1	1.45mi
4032 Falls Rd Unit 2 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1040	$1,650	$1.59	43d	1	1.46mi
4032 Falls Rd Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1040	$1,645	$1.58	43d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2020-02-21
   status Pending
2. 2020-01-30
   listed $33,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,968
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,849
• − Property taxes: −$495
• − Insurance: −$165
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,757
• − Management: −$1,757
• − Depreciation: −$960
• Taxable income: $14,984
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,596
• After-tax cash flow: $11,022/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baltimore City Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400090
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $42,108
• Composite: 10.08/100
• National rank: #9805
• State rank: #24 of 24 in MD

Livability — Baltimore

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #3396

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baltimore, MD
• County: Baltimore City · 558,601 people
• City population: 588,727
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 52,229
• Household income: $51,587
• Rent vs Own: 45.2% rent · 54.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 3644.0

Population outlook (Baltimore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 624,249 people
• By 2030: 621,541 · -0.4%
• By 2040: 609,756 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 597,249 · -4.3%
• By 2075: 552,236 · -11.5%
• By 2100: 513,934 · -17.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 73% White 17% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 2% Romanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baltimore

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+73.0) · D 85.2% · R 12.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: 75.5pp · 2024: 73.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+73.0 2020: D+76.6 2016: D+74.6 2012: D+76.4 2008: D+75.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -318.58%
• Current HPI: 291.4926
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2020-02-21 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-01-30 Listed $33,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,976 · +6.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.