617 Hemlock Rd · St. George, VT 05495

$69,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 924 sqft · Manufactured public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1982 Est $65k · 8% over $449/mo HOA · 18% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• ARV discount +3.9/15.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Location, location, location! Welcome to the friendly and safe St. George Villa Park just minutes from Williston's Taft Corners. Boasting 3 Bedrooms and an updated bath with walk in shower, this spacious layout is perfect for any needs! As you enter enter into the property you're greeted by the large living room complete with wood fireplace and across the room you'll find an eat in kitchen with ample countertop, propane stove and backsplash, with ample pantry space. The primary bedroom is found at the rear of the home with tons of closet space, and you'll find a large bedroom at the front of the property as well, also with great closet space. There is laminate flooring throughout most of

Key facts

• Updated bath
• Eat in kitchen
• Large living room

Tags

• UPDATED BATH
• WALK IN SHOWER
• LARGE LIVING ROOM
• WOOD FIREPLACE
• EAT IN KITCHEN
• AMPLE COUNTERTOP

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in St. George Villa mobile park (park-approved); Road frontage via association
• HOA & community: Monthly association/park fee of 449; Fee covers sewer, trash, water, and park rent; Association provides trash removal

Exterior

• Parking: Dirt and gravel driveway
• Utilities: Community and drilled well water; Community or shared septic; Circuit breaker electrical service; Cable internet available; Other utilities
• Home design: Manufactured/mobile single-wide home; Blue exterior; Existing structure
• Construction: Built in 1982; Vinyl siding; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Level lot; Near golf course; Near shopping; Neighborhood setting; Near hospital; Near schools

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Gas stove
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Kerosene heating; Wood heating; Hot air heating
• Interior features: 5 total rooms; Carpet, laminate, and vinyl flooring

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $70k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Market conditions: 77 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 898 units permitted in Chittenden County in 2024 (554 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $483 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chittenden County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $16k; list at $70k implies a 329% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $69,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.50% ✓
• Cap rate: 24.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 63.81%
• DSCR: 3.84
• GRM: 2.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $64,680
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
165 Hemlock Rd	0.08mi	2/1.0 (-1)	896 (-3%)	3mo	$70,000	$78	84
113 Birch Rd	0.13mi	2/1.0 (-1)	924 (0%)	8mo	$65,000	$70	82
509 Hemlock Rd	0.10mi	2/1.0 (-1)	924 (0%)	20mo	$58,000	$63	74

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 63.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.82×
• Total profit: $55,247
• Equity at exit: $10,422

10-year hold

• IRR: 67.6%
• Equity multiple: 7.88×
• Total profit: $134,630
• Equity at exit: $6,044

Cash invested: $19,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Vermont: 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause in Burlington (2022); strong habitability.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 05495

• Home prices YoY: -24.4%
• Active inventory: 77
• Price-to-rent: 2.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,446 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$47 /mo · $559/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$449
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$514
• Net cashflow: $1,041

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,128

Max offer price $69,900

Occupancy floor 52%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,080	-5% $1,061	+0% $1,041	+5% $1,021	+10% $1,001
Rent	-10% $848	-5% $944	+0% $1,041	+5% $1,137	+10% $1,234
Rate	-1.0pp $1,076	-0.5pp $1,059	base $1,041	+0.5pp $1,023	+1.0pp $1,004

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,475
• Closing costs: $2,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $449 · $5,388/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-18
   remarks 699-char remark
2. 2026-06-18
   listed $69,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $559 · $47/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $943 · $79/mo
• Expected delta: +$385/yr (+$32/mo · 68.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 6 d/yr ≥91°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,346
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,915
• − Property taxes: −$559
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,348
• − Management: −$2,348
• − HOA: −$5,388
• − Depreciation: −$2,033
• Taxable income: $12,406
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,977
• After-tax cash flow: $9,511/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — St. George

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. George, VT
• County: Chittenden County · 110,603 people
• Metro: Burlington-South Burlington, VT
• Population (ZIP): 10,956
• Household income: $107,054
• Rent vs Own: 23.9% rent · 76.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 228.0

Population outlook (Chittenden County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 170,769 people
• By 2030: 174,716 · +2.3%
• By 2040: 180,337 · +5.6%
• By 2050: 183,768 · +7.6%
• By 2075: 194,646 · +14.0%
• By 2100: 194,933 · +14.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 12% Romanian 5% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Spanish 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chittenden

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+53.6) · D 75.4% · R 21.7% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +8.9pp toward D · 2008: 44.8pp · 2024: 53.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+53.6 2020: D+54.5 2016: D+46.8 2012: D+41.9 2008: D+44.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -110.21%
• Current HPI: 341.4119
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Burlington-South Burlington, VT
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+210.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Listed $69,900 PrimeMLS
• 2016-01-28 Sold (Public Records) $16,300 Public Records
• 2009-07-15 Sold (Public Records) $22,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.3%/yr

Latest (2024): $559 · +4.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.