Lucia Plan · Crosby, TX 77532

$273,990

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,233 sqft · SingleFamily · 222 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This new two-story home offers plenty of space to live and grow. An open-concept floorplan on the first level combines the kitchen, living and dining areas to maximize interior space, with a nearby covered patio for outdoor fun and leisure. The luxurious owner's suite is nestled into a private rear corner, complete with a spa-inspired bathroom and generous walk-in closet. A versatile loft shares the second floor with three additional bedrooms.

Key facts

• Playgrounds
• Major roadways
• Parks

Tags

• OPEN AIR RECREATION CENTER
• WALKING TRAILS
• PLAYGROUNDS
• PARKS
• SCENIC LAKES
• MAJOR ROADWAYS

🏗️ New construction. The $273,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $296,789.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $274k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-80 ($-955/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $250k (8.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $241k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.8% in Crosby — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,121 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Crosby ISD (rural): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #369 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Crosby Middle (math 36% / reading 37%, grade F, #786 of 1,662 statewide, top 48%, 1,549 students, 60% FRL); Crosby H S (math 44% / reading 45%, grade F, #652 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 1,937 students, 54% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 1723 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($92k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 222 days — a 12% lower offer ($241k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $241,111 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 222 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.97%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.15%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $296,789
• List price: $273,990
• Delta: -7.68%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1735 Primrose Pointe Dr	0.20mi	4/3.0	2,207 (-1%)	2mo	$304,990	$138	85
1730 Primrose Pointe Dr	0.17mi	4/2.0	2,060 (-8%)	1mo	$256,990	$125	72
18327 Orchid Manor St	0.23mi	4/3.0	2,410 (+8%)	3mo	$298,090	$124	72
1554 Gardenia Blossom Ln	0.20mi	4/2.5	2,039 (-9%)	3mo	$224,990	$110	70
1755 Primrose Pointe Dr	0.20mi	4/2.0	2,060 (-8%)	3mo	$291,090	$141	69
18602 Tulip Creek Dr	0.28mi	4/2.0	2,039 (-9%)	0mo	$220,990	$108	66
1538 Gardenia Grove Ln	0.23mi	4/2.5	1,968 (-12%)	3mo	$257,490	$131	63
1710 Indigo Chase Dr	0.12mi	4/2.0	1,900 (-15%)	3mo	$249,990	$132	61
1734 Primrose Pointe Dr	0.16mi	4/2.0	1,900 (-15%)	2mo	$254,990	$134	60
1703 Indigo Chase Dr	0.16mi	4/2.0	1,900 (-15%)	3mo	$256,990	$135	59
1746 Primrose Pointe Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,949 (-13%)	3mo	$259,990	$133	58
18714 Deer Trace Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,122 (-5%)	0mo	$274,900	$130	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-56,886
• Equity at exit: $44,252

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-70,875
• Equity at exit: $25,661

Cash invested: $83,101 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 74 active · 64 under contract
• Months of supply: 5.4 mo (18%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $297,490 ($140/sqft)
• Median days on market: 60 d
• This list price: 22% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -4.9% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77532

• Home prices YoY: -28.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 1723
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,495 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,556
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$371 /mo · $4,452/yr
• Insurance: −$124
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$524
• Net cashflow: $-80

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,596

Max offer price $285,268

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $125	-5% $23	+0% $-80	+5% $-182	+10% $-285
Rent	-10% $-277	-5% $-178	+0% $-80	+5% $19	+10% $118
Rate	-1.0pp $70	-0.5pp $-4	base $-80	+0.5pp $-157	+1.0pp $-235

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,197
• Closing costs: $8,904
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1519 Gardenia Grove Ln Crosby, TX	3.0	2.0	1461	$1,800	$1.23	120d	1	0.26mi
18707 Antler Trails Ct Crosby, TX	4.0	2.5	2547	$2,361	$0.93	120d	1	0.55mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $273,990 Active 222 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $273,990 Active 221 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $273,990 Active 220 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $273,990 Active 219 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $273,990 Active 218 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $273,990 Active 217 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $273,990 Active 216 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $273,990 Active 215 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $273,990 Active 214 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $273,990 Active 213 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $273,990 Active 212 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $273,990 Active 211 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $273,990 Active 210 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    days on market $273,990 Active 209 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $273,990 Active 203 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $273,990 Active 202 DOM
17. 2026-09-02
    pricedays on market $273,990 Active 200 DOM
18. 2026-08-31
    days on market $271,990 Active 198 DOM
19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $271,990 Active 196 DOM
20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $271,990 Active 195 DOM
21. 2026-08-27
    days on market $271,990 Active 194 DOM
22. 2026-08-25
    days on market $271,990 Active 192 DOM
23. 2026-08-24
    days on market $271,990 Active 191 DOM
24. 2026-08-23
    days on market $271,990 Active 190 DOM
25. 2026-08-22
    days on market $271,990 Active 189 DOM
26. 2026-08-21
    days on market $271,990 Active 188 DOM
27. 2026-08-20
    days on market $271,990 Active 187 DOM
28. 2026-08-19
    days on market $271,990 Active 186 DOM
29. 2026-08-18
    price $271,990 Active 185 DOM
30. 2026-08-18
    days on market $269,990 Active 185 DOM
31. 2026-08-17
    days on market $269,990 Active 184 DOM
32. 2026-08-16
    days on market $269,990 Active 183 DOM
33. 2026-08-15
    days on market $269,990 Active 182 DOM
34. 2026-08-14
    days on market $269,990 Active 181 DOM
35. 2026-08-13
    days on market $269,990 Active 180 DOM
36. 2026-08-12
    days on market $269,990 Active 179 DOM
37. 2026-08-11
    price $269,990 Active 178 DOM
38. 2026-08-11
    days on market $266,990 Active 178 DOM
39. 2026-08-10
    days on market $266,990 Active 177 DOM
40. 2026-08-09
    days on market $266,990 Active 176 DOM
41. 2026-08-08
    days on market $266,990 Active 175 DOM
42. 2026-08-06
    days on market $266,990 Active 173 DOM
43. 2026-08-05
    price $266,990 Active 172 DOM
44. 2026-08-05
    days on market $271,990 Active 172 DOM
45. 2026-08-04
    days on market $271,990 Active 171 DOM
46. 2026-08-03
    days on market $271,990 Active 170 DOM
47. 2026-07-31
    days on market $271,990 Active 167 DOM
48. 2026-07-30
    pricedays on market $271,990 Active 166 DOM
49. 2026-07-30
    days on market $291,990 Active 165 DOM
50. 2026-07-28
    days on market $291,990 Active 164 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,946
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,625
• − Property taxes: −$4,452
• − Insurance: −$1,484
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,396
• − Management: −$2,396
• − Depreciation: −$8,634
• Taxable loss: −$6,040
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,450
• After-tax cash flow: $494/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This new two-story home offers a good condition with modern finishes and a spacious floor plan. It is move-in ready and has the potential for minor updates to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 44/100

Zoned Schools

High Crosby H S F TX #652/1,632 Nat'l #6,890/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crosby ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815750
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $61,079
• Composite: 35.14/100
• National rank: #5012
• State rank: #369 of 826 in TX

D Composite livability gradescore 59/100

Livability — Crosby

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1121
• US rank: #19783

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 5,571,493 people
• City population: 33,780
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 33,780
• Household income: $92,201
• Rent vs Own: 13.9% rent · 86.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 16% Black 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 21%

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Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.63%
• Current HPI: 264.0126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.48%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-02-14 Listed $321,990 Zillow