12059 Crooked Creek Ln · Santa Fe, TX 77510

$375,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,950 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 22 Days on market

Built 2023 5,715 sqft lot $192/sqft · 6% above area Est $354k · 6% over $58/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• ARV discount +4.8/15.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

MOVE IN READY!! Step inside this stunning single-story home and experience its grand, welcoming feel—perfect for entertaining. Featuring 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, and a private study with a closet and built-in shelving for extra storage, this home blends comfort and functionality. The kitchen shines with white quartz countertops, upgraded JCraft cabinetry offering abundant storage, a large island, and a 5-burner stainless gas range—ideal for any home chef. Enjoy outdoor living on the covered patio with a gas line, while added features like brick on all four sides, full gutters, 2" faux wood blinds, and under-cabinet lighting complete this beautifully designed home.

Key facts

• Covered patio
• Large island
• Private study

Tags

• PRIVATE STUDY
• WHITE QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• UPGRADED JCRAFT CABINETRY
• LARGE ISLAND
• 5-BURNER STAINLESS GAS RANGE
• COVERED PATIO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $375k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $19k ($230k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($28k rent vs $375k).
• Recommended offer: $369k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 67.8% vs local median 4.5% in Santa Fe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#550 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Santa Fe ISD (suburban): math 38% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #385 of 826 in TX (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 233 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $105k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($369k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $369,375 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 7.45% ✓
• Cap rate: 67.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 219.49%
• DSCR: 10.77
• GRM: 1.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $353,658
• List price: $375,000
• Delta: 6.03%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12026 Crooked Creek Ln	0.09mi	3/2.0	2,009 (+3%)	2mo	$345,096	$172	89
12131 Wooden Mill Ln N	0.11mi	3/2.0	2,009 (+3%)	7mo	$330,000	$164	84
3826 Garden Hill Ln	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,904 (-2%)	7mo	$332,990	$175	84
3811 Garden Hill Ln	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,901 (-2%)	11mo	$359,990	$189	82
4018 Avenue L	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,948 (-0%)	3mo	$359,000	$184	78
3911 Redbud Ct	0.27mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,009 (+3%)	8mo	$360,000	$179	70
12122 Blossom Dr	0.23mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,051 (+5%)	4mo	$342,990	$167	68
12106 Maple Ct	0.17mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,051 (+5%)	8mo	$342,990	$167	68
3818 Garden Hill Ln	0.12mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,140 (+10%)	4mo	$346,990	$162	66
12027 Crooked Creek Ln	0.08mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,140 (+10%)	9mo	$350,990	$164	63
3859 Mulberry Farms Dr	0.22mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,140 (+10%)	2mo	$387,840	$181	63
12008 7th St	0.44mi	3/2.5	1,866 (-4%)	9mo	$352,000	$189	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 12.08×
• Total profit: $1,163,031
• Equity at exit: $55,914

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 25.67×
• Total profit: $2,590,199
• Equity at exit: $32,423

Cash invested: $105,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77510

• Home prices YoY: -15.3%
• Active inventory: 233
• Price-to-rent: 1.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $27,923 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,967
• Tax from tax record: −$673 /mo · $8,076/yr
• Insurance: −$156
• HOA: −$58
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$5,864
• Net cashflow: $19,206

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,612

Max offer price $375,000

Occupancy floor 26%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $93,750
• Closing costs: $11,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4120 Avenue O #10 Santa Fe, TX	3.0	2.0	1280	$74,621	$58.30	43d	1	0.89mi
11844 13th St Santa Fe, TX	3.0	2.0	1472	$1,750	$1.19	21d	1	1.09mi
13342 Pecan Trails Dr Santa Fe, TX	4.0	3.0	2150	$2,700	$1.26	43d	1	1.42mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $58 · $696/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-13
   status Pending 690-char remark

   Show marketing remark (690 chars)

   MOVE IN READY!! Step inside this stunning single-story home and experience its grand, welcoming feel—perfect for entertaining. Featuring 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, and a private study with a closet and built-in shelving for extra storage, this home blends comfort and functionality. The kitchen shines with white quartz countertops, upgraded JCraft cabinetry offering abundant storage, a large island, and a 5-burner stainless gas range—ideal for any home chef. Enjoy outdoor living on the covered patio with a gas line, while added features like brick on all four sides, full gutters, 2" faux wood blinds, and under-cabinet lighting complete this beautifully designed home.

2. 2026-05-08
   price $375,000 690-char remark

   Show marketing remark (690 chars)

   MOVE IN READY!! Step inside this stunning single-story home and experience its grand, welcoming feel—perfect for entertaining. Featuring 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, and a private study with a closet and built-in shelving for extra storage, this home blends comfort and functionality. The kitchen shines with white quartz countertops, upgraded JCraft cabinetry offering abundant storage, a large island, and a 5-burner stainless gas range—ideal for any home chef. Enjoy outdoor living on the covered patio with a gas line, while added features like brick on all four sides, full gutters, 2" faux wood blinds, and under-cabinet lighting complete this beautifully designed home.

3. 2026-04-21
   listed $375,965 Active 690-char remark

   Show marketing remark (690 chars)

   MOVE IN READY!! Step inside this stunning single-story home and experience its grand, welcoming feel—perfect for entertaining. Featuring 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, and a private study with a closet and built-in shelving for extra storage, this home blends comfort and functionality. The kitchen shines with white quartz countertops, upgraded JCraft cabinetry offering abundant storage, a large island, and a 5-burner stainless gas range—ideal for any home chef. Enjoy outdoor living on the covered patio with a gas line, while added features like brick on all four sides, full gutters, 2" faux wood blinds, and under-cabinet lighting complete this beautifully designed home.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $8,076 · $673/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,076 · $673/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $335,079
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,006
• − Property taxes: −$8,076
• − Insurance: −$1,875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$26,806
• − Management: −$26,806
• − HOA: −$696
• − Depreciation: −$10,909
• Taxable income: $238,905
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$57,337
• After-tax cash flow: $173,130/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Fe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4839270
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $66,769
• Composite: 34.86/100
• National rank: #5091
• State rank: #385 of 826 in TX

Livability — Santa Fe

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #550
• US rank: #10637

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Santa Fe, TX
• Population (ZIP): 13,938

Population outlook (Galveston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 390,640 people
• By 2030: 425,226 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 493,765 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 559,698 · +43.3%
• By 2075: 719,260 · +84.1%
• By 2100: 819,628 · +109.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 17% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 3% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 10% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Galveston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.7% · R 63.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -54.15%
• Current HPI: 299.2228
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-0.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $375,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-21 Listed $375,965 HARMLS

Property tax history

-5.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,076 · -5.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.