3128 Aubrey Ave · Granite City, IL 62040

$124,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 912 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 11 Days on market

Built 1956 6,268 sqft lot Est $112k · 11% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.4/30.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +2.4/15.0
• Schools +0.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Updated Ranch with full, unfinished basement. New Appliances, New Windows, Updated bathroom and kitchen with new luxury vinyl plank flooring and modern finishes. Level lot, partially fenced yard. Private driveway - off street parking. Plenty of storage in basement.

Key facts

• 6,268 sq ft lot
• Built 1956
• Listed 10 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Off-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service by Ameren; Electricity connected; Natural gas connected; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: Partial fencing; Level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on main level
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms, all on the main level
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Unfinished basement
• Laundry & utility: Basement provides utility space

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $71 ($850/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $124k (0.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $124k (0.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#623 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Granite City CUSD 9 (suburban): math 9% / reading 11% proficiency, ranked #570 of 620 in IL (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Granite City High School (math 10% / reading 12%, grade F, #522 of 693 statewide, top 76%, 1,805 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 59% district-wide (59 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.7%/yr); 194 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 10d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 336 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Madison County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $124,127 (0.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.43%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $112,176
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1917 Joy Ave	0.11mi	3/1.0	875 (-4%)	2mo	$118,900	$136	87
1904 Joy Ave	0.09mi	2/1.0 (-1)	875 (-4%)	0mo	$79,900	$91	84
3149 Myrtle Ave	0.19mi	3/1.0	960 (+5%)	3mo	$135,000	$141	80
2823 Marshall Ave	0.39mi	3/1.0	888 (-3%)	3mo	$49,900	$56	75
2829 Dale Ave	0.49mi	3/1.0	944 (+4%)	2mo	$129,900	$138	70
2824 Birch Ave	0.54mi	3/1.0	944 (+4%)	0mo	$105,000	$111	69
2900 Iowa St	0.55mi	2/1.0 (-1)	936 (+3%)	1mo	$114,900	$123	65
2004 Elm Ave	0.65mi	3/1.0	944 (+4%)	2mo	$124,900	$132	62
2428 Sunbury Ave	0.74mi	3/1.0	864 (-5%)	1mo	$74,900	$87	56
2807 Iowa St	0.70mi	2/1.0 (-1)	848 (-7%)	2mo	$69,500	$82	49
2535 E 28th St	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,013 (+11%)	2mo	$85,000	$84	45
3017 Ramona Dr	0.54mi	2/1.0 (-1)	780 (-14%)	3mo	$150,000	$192	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.67% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-17,317
• Equity at exit: $18,623

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-15,624
• Equity at exit: $10,799

Cash invested: $34,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62040

• Home prices YoY: -21.8%
• Rents YoY: 1.7%
• Active inventory: 194
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,241 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$655
• Tax from tax record: −$203 /mo · $2,432/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$261
• Net cashflow: $71

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,152

Max offer price $124,900

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $142	-5% $106	+0% $71	+5% $36	+10% $0
Rent	-10% $-27	-5% $22	+0% $71	+5% $120	+10% $169
Rate	-1.0pp $134	-0.5pp $103	base $71	+0.5pp $39	+1.0pp $6

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,225
• Closing costs: $3,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
303 Wilson Park Ln Granite City, IL	3.0	1.0	900	$1,200	$1.33	9d	1	0.88mi
2415 Jerden Ave Granite City, IL	3.0	1.0	970	$1,400	$1.44	6d	1	0.96mi
2715 Center St Unit B Granite City, IL	2.0	1.0	930	$1,275	$1.37	45d	1	1.09mi
4404 Wabash Ave Granite City, IL	2.0	1.0	864	$1,025	$1.19	5d	1	1.26mi
2556 Center St Granite City, IL	3.0	1.0	874	$1,500	$1.72	16d	1	1.28mi
2450 Cleveland Blvd Apt A Granite City, IL	2.0	1.0	846	$825	$0.98	19d	1	1.35mi
2317 Grand Ave Granite City, IL	2.0	1.0	1124	$750	$0.67	9d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $124,900 Active 11 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $124,900 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $124,900 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $124,900 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $124,900 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $124,900 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $124,900 Active 2 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $124,900 Coming Soon 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $124,900 Coming Soon 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $124,900 Coming Soon 3 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    remarks 265-char remark
12. 2026-06-05
    listed $124,900 Coming Soon 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,432 · $203/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,634 · $219/mo
• Expected delta: +$201/yr (+$17/mo · 8.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,895
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,996
• − Property taxes: −$2,432
• − Insurance: −$624
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,192
• − Management: −$1,192
• − Depreciation: −$3,633
• Taxable loss: −$1,175
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$282
• After-tax cash flow: $1,132/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Granite City CUSD 9
• NCES district ID: 1717280
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 11% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $45,082
• Composite: 9.15/100
• National rank: #9864
• State rank: #570 of 620 in IL

Livability — Granite City

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #623
• US rank: #12751

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Granite City, IL
• County: Madison County · 189,064 people
• City population: 40,404
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 40,404
• Household income: $60,031
• Rent vs Own: 25.0% rent · 75.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 923.0

Population outlook (Madison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 258,371 people
• By 2030: 251,523 · -2.7%
• By 2040: 233,640 · -9.6%
• By 2050: 213,042 · -17.5%
• By 2075: 165,255 · -36.0%
• By 2100: 123,953 · -52.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 9% Black 9% Two or more races 7% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Madison

• 2024 margin: R (+13.3) · D 42.5% · R 55.8% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.5pp toward R · 2008: 9.2pp · 2024: -13.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.3 2020: R+13.2 2016: R+15.6 2012: R+1.4 2008: D+9.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.88%
• Current HPI: 204.4612
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.67%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Coming Soon $124,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+10.3%/yr

Latest (2024): $2,432 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.