159 Park Dr · Cecilton, MD 21919

$169,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,782 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 77 Days on market

Built 1950 9,147 sqft lot Est $328k · 48% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Water oriented home with pole barn! This 3 bedroom 2 bath home is 1782 square feet with a living room with a fireplace, large kitchen, many additional rooms, enclosed porch, and multiple decks located close to the water in Crystal Beach Manor . Call now to tour!

Key facts

• Multiple decks
• Water oriented home
• Pole barn

Tags

• WATER ORIENTED HOME
• POLE BARN
• ENCLOSED PORCH
• MULTIPLE DECKS
• CLOSE TO THE WATER

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway (gravel and dirt); Off-street parking; Free parking
• Utilities: Well water; On-site septic
• Home design: Detached property; 2 total levels; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Stucco exterior; Crawl space foundation; Above-grade and below-grade structures
• Exterior features: Backs to trees; Located on a cul-de-sac; Water view (Elk River); Water access; water-oriented property; Additional parcels included; Navigable water nearby

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on the upper level
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (1 on main level, 1 on upper level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Oil heating fuel; Electric hot water
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); 1 fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Laundry hookups

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $773 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $170k).
• Recommended offer: $160k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#283 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B; Watch: schools D-, crime F, amenities F.
• Cecil County Public Schools (rural): math 15% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #15 of 24 in MD (top 62%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 62 active listings in the ZIP; 563 units permitted in Cecil County in 2024 (330 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 77 days — a 6% lower offer ($160k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 26y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $141k; 20% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $159,706 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 77 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.43% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.50%
• DSCR: 1.87
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $327,888
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
34 Virginia	0.43mi	3/2.5	1,876 (+5%)	4mo	$410,000	$219	66
16 Virginia Ave	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,748 (-2%)	23mo	$307,000	$176	58
45 New Jersey Ave	0.58mi	3/1.5	1,728 (-3%)	15mo	$300,000	$174	53
43 New York Ave	0.54mi	3/1.0	1,548 (-13%)	13mo	$284,900	$184	38
27 Florida Ave	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,680 (-6%)	23mo	$315,000	$188	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.46×
• Total profit: $21,727
• Equity at exit: $25,333

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.73×
• Total profit: $82,399
• Equity at exit: $14,690

Cash invested: $47,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21919

• Home prices YoY: -21.2%
• Active inventory: 62
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,428 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$183 /mo · $2,198/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$510
• Net cashflow: $773

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,449

Max offer price $169,900

Occupancy floor 63%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,475
• Closing costs: $5,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 42 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $169,900 Active 77 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $169,900 Active 76 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $169,900 Active 75 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $169,900 Active 74 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $169,900 Active 72 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   price $169,900 Active 68 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $179,900 Active 68 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $179,900 Active 67 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $179,900 Active 66 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $179,900 Active 63 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $179,900 Active 62 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $179,900 Active 61 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $179,900 Active 60 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $179,900 Active 59 DOM
15. 2026-04-28
    status Pending
16. 2026-04-04
    price $179,900
17. 2026-03-03
    listed $189,900 Active
18. 2026-02-18
    soldstatus $141,000
19. 2025-10-31
    historical
20. 2025-10-10
    price $172,500
21. 2025-10-08
    status Active
22. 2025-09-30
    historical Active Under Contract
23. 2025-09-18
    price $179,900
24. 2025-09-12
    listed $199,900 Active
25. 2005-11-15
    soldstatus $191,000
26. 2005-09-28
    historical
27. 2005-09-28
    historical
28. 2005-09-26
    soldstatus $191,000
29. 2005-08-19
    listed
30. 2005-08-19
    historical
31. 2005-08-19
    historical
32. 2005-08-18
    listed $189,900
33. 2005-08-02
    listed $191,000
34. 2005-08-02
    listed $189,900
35. 2001-11-28
    soldstatus $103,500
36. 2001-11-27
    soldstatus $103,500
37. 2001-10-29
    historical
38. 2001-06-13
    listed $110,000
39. 2000-11-29
    historical
40. 2000-04-11
    listed
41. 1986-12-31
    soldstatus $28,000
42. 1980-06-17
    soldstatus $20,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,198 · $183/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,198 · $183/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,135
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,517
• − Property taxes: −$2,198
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,331
• − Management: −$2,331
• − Depreciation: −$4,943
• Taxable income: $6,966
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,672
• After-tax cash flow: $7,605/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cecil County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400240
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $66,544
• Composite: 21.51/100
• National rank: #8322
• State rank: #15 of 24 in MD

Livability — Cecilton

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #283
• US rank: #14571

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,644

Population outlook (Cecil County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 105,877 people
• By 2030: 106,905 · +1.0%
• By 2040: 107,156 · +1.2%
• By 2050: 104,170 · -1.6%
• By 2075: 95,771 · -9.5%
• By 2100: 82,381 · -22.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 2% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Subsaharan African 7% Italian 5% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cecil

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+30.9) · D 33.5% · R 64.4% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.3pp toward R · 2008: -14.6pp · 2024: -30.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+30.9 2020: R+26.6 2016: R+35.3 2012: R+20.4 2008: R+14.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -61.49%
• Current HPI: 227.9396
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+799.5% since first listed

28 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-04 Price Changed $179,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-03 Listed $189,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-18 Sold (Public Records) $141,000 Public Records
• 2025-10-31 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-10-10 Price Changed $172,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-10-08 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-09-30 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-09-18 Price Changed $179,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-09-12 Listed $199,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2005-11-15 Sold (Public Records) $191,000 Public Records
• 2005-09-28 Delisted — MRIS
• 2005-09-28 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2005-09-26 Sold (MLS) $191,000 MRIS
• 2005-08-19 Delisted — MRIS
• 2005-08-19 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2005-08-19 Listed — MRIS
• 2005-08-18 Listed $189,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2005-08-02 Listed $189,900 MRIS
• 2005-08-02 Listed $191,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2001-11-28 Sold (Public Records) $103,500 Public Records
• 2001-11-27 Sold (MLS) $103,500 MRIS
• 2001-10-29 Delisted — MRIS
• 2001-06-13 Listed $110,000 MRIS
• 2000-11-29 Delisted — MRIS
• 2000-04-11 Listed — MRIS
• 1986-12-31 Sold (Public Records) $28,000 Public Records
• 1980-06-17 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,198 · +26.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.