20 Judith Way · Lakehurst, NJ 08527

$110,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 850 sqft · SingleFamily · 157 Days on market

Built 1981 $129/sqft · 9% above area Est $101k · 9% over $550/mo HOA · 21% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• ARV discount +3.5/15.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come see this TOTALLY renovated home on a quite street in a 55 and over community. Open concept custom designer kitchen/living room w/ quartz counter top and stainless steel appliances. Home has ''top of the line'' vinyl flooring through out with ceramic tile flooring in both the full bath and half bath. All plumbing, windows, asphalt shingle roof, doors, water heater and electric service are NEW. Enjoy out door living to the fullest with secluded back yard and new covered deck. Large shed adds to the quaintness of this property. New state of the art outside gas forced hot air heat and central A/C for the utmost in energy efficiency. Cathedral ceiling includes ceiling fan and recessed lighting for both kitchen and hallway. Come see this unique property and make it your own!

Key facts

• Renovated home
• Quartz counter top
• Vinyl flooring

Tags

• RENOVATED HOME
• CUSTOM DESIGNER KITCHEN
• QUARTZ COUNTER TOP
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• VINYL FLOORING
• CERAMIC TILE FLOORING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $733 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $110k).
• Recommended offer: $97k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#254 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, cost of living D, amenities F.
• Jackson Township School District (suburban): math 26% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #228 of 472 in NJ (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.7%/yr); 564 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $761 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 157 days — a 12% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 21% of rent.

Recommended offer $96,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 157 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.35% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.56%
• DSCR: 2.27
• GRM: 3.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $101,093
• List price: $110,000
• Delta: 8.81%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20 Judith Way	0.00mi	2/1.5	850 (0%)	0mo	$100,000	$118	100
42 Douglas Dr	0.18mi	2/2.0	900 (+6%)	9mo	$100,000	$111	72
143 Douglas Dr	0.12mi	2/1.0	928 (+9%)	6mo	$62,000	$67	72

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.70×
• Total profit: $21,661
• Equity at exit: $16,401

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.66×
• Total profit: $51,221
• Equity at exit: $9,511

Cash invested: $30,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08527

• Rents YoY: -1.7%
• Active inventory: 564
• Price-to-rent: 3.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,586 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$138 /mo · $1,650/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$550
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$543
• Net cashflow: $733

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,658

Max offer price $110,000

Occupancy floor 67%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $809	-5% $771	+0% $733	+5% $695	+10% $657
Rent	-10% $529	-5% $631	+0% $733	+5% $835	+10% $937
Rate	-1.0pp $788	-0.5pp $761	base $733	+0.5pp $705	+1.0pp $676

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,500
• Closing costs: $3,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $550 · $6,600/yr
• Likely covers: watergaselectric

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-04-02
   status Active 784-char remark

   Show marketing remark (784 chars)

   Come see this TOTALLY renovated home on a quite street in a 55 and over community. Open concept custom designer kitchen/living room w/ quartz counter top and stainless steel appliances. Home has ''top of the line'' vinyl flooring through out with ceramic tile flooring in both the full bath and half bath. All plumbing, windows, asphalt shingle roof, doors, water heater and electric service are NEW. Enjoy out door living to the fullest with secluded back yard and new covered deck. Large shed adds to the quaintness of this property. New state of the art outside gas forced hot air heat and central A/C for the utmost in energy efficiency. Cathedral ceiling includes ceiling fan and recessed lighting for both kitchen and hallway. Come see this unique property and make it your own!

2. 2026-03-25
   status Pending 784-char remark

   Show marketing remark (784 chars)

   Come see this TOTALLY renovated home on a quite street in a 55 and over community. Open concept custom designer kitchen/living room w/ quartz counter top and stainless steel appliances. Home has ''top of the line'' vinyl flooring through out with ceramic tile flooring in both the full bath and half bath. All plumbing, windows, asphalt shingle roof, doors, water heater and electric service are NEW. Enjoy out door living to the fullest with secluded back yard and new covered deck. Large shed adds to the quaintness of this property. New state of the art outside gas forced hot air heat and central A/C for the utmost in energy efficiency. Cathedral ceiling includes ceiling fan and recessed lighting for both kitchen and hallway. Come see this unique property and make it your own!

3. 2025-12-08
   listed $110,000 Active 784-char remark

   Show marketing remark (784 chars)

   Come see this TOTALLY renovated home on a quite street in a 55 and over community. Open concept custom designer kitchen/living room w/ quartz counter top and stainless steel appliances. Home has ''top of the line'' vinyl flooring through out with ceramic tile flooring in both the full bath and half bath. All plumbing, windows, asphalt shingle roof, doors, water heater and electric service are NEW. Enjoy out door living to the fullest with secluded back yard and new covered deck. Large shed adds to the quaintness of this property. New state of the art outside gas forced hot air heat and central A/C for the utmost in energy efficiency. Cathedral ceiling includes ceiling fan and recessed lighting for both kitchen and hallway. Come see this unique property and make it your own!

4. 2025-09-04
   price $110,000
5. 2025-07-30
   price $125,200
6. 2024-11-22
   status Active
7. 2024-11-22
   price $129,000
8. 2024-10-05
   price $134,500
9. 2024-08-01
   price $139,900
10. 2024-05-21
    price $144,900
11. 2023-11-21
    listed $149,000 Active
12. 2020-03-01
    historical
13. 2019-12-05
    price $24,900
14. 2019-11-11
    price $31,900
15. 2019-10-30
    price $39,900
16. 2019-09-23
    price $48,500
17. 2019-08-26
    listed $54,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,037
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,162
• − Property taxes: −$1,650
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,483
• − Management: −$2,483
• − HOA: −$6,600
• − Depreciation: −$3,200
• Taxable income: $7,909
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,898
• After-tax cash flow: $6,898/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jackson Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3407740
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -22.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $86,012
• Composite: 35.36/100
• National rank: #4956
• State rank: #228 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Lakehurst

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #254
• US rank: #7255

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C+ Cost of living D Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Ocean County · 439,426 people
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 58,991
• Household income: $115,487
• Rent vs Own: 12.9% rent · 87.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1031.0

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 8% Black 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Scotch-Irish 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -349.94%
• Current HPI: 338.3328
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.71%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+100.4% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-02 Relisted — MOMLS
• 2026-03-25 Pending — MOMLS
• 2025-12-08 Listed $110,000 MOMLS
• 2025-09-04 Price Changed $110,000 MOMLS
• 2025-07-30 Price Changed $125,200 MOMLS
• 2024-11-22 Relisted — MOMLS
• 2024-11-22 Price Changed $129,000 MOMLS
• 2024-10-05 Price Changed $134,500 MOMLS
• 2024-08-01 Price Changed $139,900 MOMLS
• 2024-05-21 Price Changed $144,900 MOMLS
• 2023-11-21 Listed $149,000 MOMLS
• 2020-03-01 Delisted — MOMLS
• 2019-12-05 Price Changed $24,900 MOMLS
• 2019-11-11 Price Changed $31,900 MOMLS
• 2019-10-30 Price Changed $39,900 MOMLS
• 2019-09-23 Price Changed $48,500 MOMLS
• 2019-08-26 Listed $54,900 MOMLS