527 51st St · Lubbock, TX 79404

$110,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,068 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 63 Days on market

Built 1949 7,625 sqft lot $103/sqft · at area comps Est $114k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.6/30.0
• ARV discount +9.0/15.0
• Appreciation +6.6/10.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This home offers 3 spacious bedrooms and 1 full bathroom, ideal for first-time buyers or investors. Located in an established neighborhood, the house sits on a large lot with plenty of yard space — perfect for outdoor gatherings or pets. Foundation is Crawl Space, offering durability and easy access. Conveniently located just minutes from I-27, schools, parks, and local amenities. Title work has already been started with a top-rated title company. Don't miss this affordable opportunity in the heart of Lubbock!

Key facts

• 7,625 sq ft lot
• Built 1949
• Listed 63 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $47 ($564/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $103k (6.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $103k (6.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, crime F.
• Lubbock ISD (urban): math 36% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #481 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 91 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($761 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.2% local appreciation)).
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($103k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1949 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $102,631 (6.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1949 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.83%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $113,766
• List price: $110,000
• Delta: -3.31%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
507 49th St	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,114 (+4%)	2mo	$99,900	$90	79
402 51st St	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,036 (-3%)	11mo	$129,999	$125	72
302 52nd St	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,102 (+3%)	9mo	$76,999	$70	70
1218 48th St	0.39mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,040 (-3%)	13mo	$139,000	$134	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.22% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.57×
• Total profit: $17,569
• Equity at exit: $50,850

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.84×
• Total profit: $56,785
• Equity at exit: $79,464

Cash invested: $30,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79404

• Home prices YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 91
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,026 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax from tax record: −$141 /mo · $1,693/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$216
• Net cashflow: $47

Break-even live

Break-even rent $967

Max offer price $110,000

Occupancy floor 90%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,500
• Closing costs: $3,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
812 48th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1282	$1,250	$0.98	21d	1	0.20mi
705 47th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	821	$750	$0.91	21d	1	0.23mi
713 47th St Unit B Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	800	$750	$0.94	21d	1	0.23mi
703 47th St Unit B Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	821	$750	$0.91	21d	1	0.23mi
1101 52nd St Apt C Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	721	$850	$1.18	21d	1	0.24mi
313 52nd St Lubbock, TX	4.0	1.0	1044	$975	$0.93	21d	1	0.25mi
5512 Avenue G Unit G Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1117	$1,000	$0.90	44d	1	0.32mi
520 46th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1200	$850	$0.71	14d	1	0.34mi
4606 Avenue C Unit C Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1142	$999	$0.87	14d	1	0.35mi
529 45th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1100	$875	$0.80	14d	1	0.36mi
519 45th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1100	$850	$0.77	14d	1	0.36mi
1307 53rd St Unit 1307 C Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	755	$695	$0.92	44d	1	0.40mi
531 44th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,090	$0.84	14d	1	0.42mi
1316 53rd St Apt D Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	755	$695	$0.92	44d	1	0.43mi
1317 52nd St Unit C Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	755	$650	$0.86	21d	1	0.44mi
1119 46th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	704	$595	$0.85	21d	1	0.45mi
1107 45th St Unit B Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	728	$850	$1.17	44d	1	0.46mi
5614 Avenue A Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1129	$695	$0.62	21d	1	0.47mi
220 44th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	980	$910	$0.93	14d	1	0.54mi
519 42nd St Apt A Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1092	$895	$0.82	14d	1	0.55mi
512 39th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	876	$849	$0.97	14d	1	0.76mi
1610 58th St Unit B Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	952	$950	$1.00	44d	1	0.77mi
1612 58th St Unit B Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	952	$950	$1.00	44d	1	0.78mi
1614 58th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	952	$950	$1.00	44d	1	0.79mi
1307 61st St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1073	$1,150	$1.07	14d	1	0.79mi
1618 58th St Unit B Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	952	$950	$1.00	44d	1	0.81mi
419 38th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1206	$950	$0.79	44d	1	0.81mi
1312 40th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	940	$795	$0.85	21d	1	0.81mi
1717 47th St Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	830	$775	$0.93	21d	1	0.84mi
1710 45th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	714	$595	$0.83	14d	1	0.87mi
332 37th St Unit 2 Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	725	$700	$0.97	21d	1	0.93mi
330 37th St Unit 2 Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	750	$750	$1.00	14d	1	0.93mi
1303 65th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	850	$595	$0.70	21d	1	0.96mi
1341 65th Dr Unit C Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.5	1000	$695	$0.69	21d	1	0.99mi
1712 42nd St Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	899	$695	$0.77	21d	1	0.99mi
1204 36th St Unit b Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	872	$835	$0.96	14d	1	0.99mi
211 36th St Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	750	$775	$1.03	44d	1	1.00mi
209 36th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	750	$750	$1.00	44d	1	1.00mi
6130 Avenue P Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1387	$1,100	$0.79	44d	1	1.02mi
1920 45th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,200	$1.00	21d	1	1.02mi

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $110,000 Active 63 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   price $110,000 Active 62 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $115,000 Active 62 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $115,000 Active 61 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $115,000 Active 60 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $115,000 Active 58 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $115,000 Active 57 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $115,000 Active 55 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $115,000 Active 54 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $115,000 Active 53 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $115,000 Active 52 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $115,000 Active 49 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $115,000 Active 48 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $115,000 Active 47 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $115,000 Active 46 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $115,000 Active 45 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $115,000 Active 44 DOM
18. 2026-04-14
    listed $120,000 Active
19. 2026-02-18
    soldstatus Closed 521-char remark

    Show marketing remark (521 chars)

    This home offers 3 spacious bedrooms and 1 full bathroom, ideal for first-time buyers or investors. Located in an established neighborhood, the house sits on a large lot with plenty of yard space — perfect for outdoor gatherings or pets. Foundation is Crawl Space, offering durability and easy access. Conveniently located just minutes from I-27, schools, parks, and local amenities. Title work has already been started with a top-rated title company. Don't miss this affordable opportunity in the heart of Lubbock!

20. 2026-01-01
    status Pending 521-char remark

    Show marketing remark (521 chars)

    This home offers 3 spacious bedrooms and 1 full bathroom, ideal for first-time buyers or investors. Located in an established neighborhood, the house sits on a large lot with plenty of yard space — perfect for outdoor gatherings or pets. Foundation is Crawl Space, offering durability and easy access. Conveniently located just minutes from I-27, schools, parks, and local amenities. Title work has already been started with a top-rated title company. Don't miss this affordable opportunity in the heart of Lubbock!

21. 2025-12-15
    status Active 521-char remark

    Show marketing remark (521 chars)

    This home offers 3 spacious bedrooms and 1 full bathroom, ideal for first-time buyers or investors. Located in an established neighborhood, the house sits on a large lot with plenty of yard space — perfect for outdoor gatherings or pets. Foundation is Crawl Space, offering durability and easy access. Conveniently located just minutes from I-27, schools, parks, and local amenities. Title work has already been started with a top-rated title company. Don't miss this affordable opportunity in the heart of Lubbock!

22. 2025-09-17
    status Pending 521-char remark

    Show marketing remark (521 chars)

    This home offers 3 spacious bedrooms and 1 full bathroom, ideal for first-time buyers or investors. Located in an established neighborhood, the house sits on a large lot with plenty of yard space — perfect for outdoor gatherings or pets. Foundation is Crawl Space, offering durability and easy access. Conveniently located just minutes from I-27, schools, parks, and local amenities. Title work has already been started with a top-rated title company. Don't miss this affordable opportunity in the heart of Lubbock!

23. 2025-09-16
    historical 521-char remark

    Show marketing remark (521 chars)

    This home offers 3 spacious bedrooms and 1 full bathroom, ideal for first-time buyers or investors. Located in an established neighborhood, the house sits on a large lot with plenty of yard space — perfect for outdoor gatherings or pets. Foundation is Crawl Space, offering durability and easy access. Conveniently located just minutes from I-27, schools, parks, and local amenities. Title work has already been started with a top-rated title company. Don't miss this affordable opportunity in the heart of Lubbock!

24. 2025-08-20
    status Pending 521-char remark

    Show marketing remark (521 chars)

    This home offers 3 spacious bedrooms and 1 full bathroom, ideal for first-time buyers or investors. Located in an established neighborhood, the house sits on a large lot with plenty of yard space — perfect for outdoor gatherings or pets. Foundation is Crawl Space, offering durability and easy access. Conveniently located just minutes from I-27, schools, parks, and local amenities. Title work has already been started with a top-rated title company. Don't miss this affordable opportunity in the heart of Lubbock!

25. 2025-08-13
    price $44,900 521-char remark

    Show marketing remark (521 chars)

    This home offers 3 spacious bedrooms and 1 full bathroom, ideal for first-time buyers or investors. Located in an established neighborhood, the house sits on a large lot with plenty of yard space — perfect for outdoor gatherings or pets. Foundation is Crawl Space, offering durability and easy access. Conveniently located just minutes from I-27, schools, parks, and local amenities. Title work has already been started with a top-rated title company. Don't miss this affordable opportunity in the heart of Lubbock!

26. 2025-07-30
    listed $54,900 Active 521-char remark

    Show marketing remark (521 chars)

    This home offers 3 spacious bedrooms and 1 full bathroom, ideal for first-time buyers or investors. Located in an established neighborhood, the house sits on a large lot with plenty of yard space — perfect for outdoor gatherings or pets. Foundation is Crawl Space, offering durability and easy access. Conveniently located just minutes from I-27, schools, parks, and local amenities. Title work has already been started with a top-rated title company. Don't miss this affordable opportunity in the heart of Lubbock!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,693 · $141/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,013 · $168/mo
• Expected delta: +$320/yr (+$27/mo · 18.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,316
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,162
• − Property taxes: −$1,693
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$985
• − Management: −$985
• − Depreciation: −$3,200
• Taxable loss: −$1,260
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$302
• After-tax cash flow: $866/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lubbock ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828500
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $39,820
• Composite: 31.44/100
• National rank: #5984
• State rank: #481 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lubbock, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 283,030
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 8,529
• Household income: $51,630
• Rent vs Own: 31.0% rent · 69.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 366.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% Black 22% White 20% Two or more races 17% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 46%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 0%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 36%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.22%
• Current HPI: 163.854
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+118.6% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Listed $120,000 LARMLS
• 2026-02-18 Sold (MLS) — LARMLS
• 2026-01-01 Pending — LARMLS
• 2025-12-15 Relisted — LARMLS
• 2025-09-17 Pending — LARMLS
• 2025-09-16 Delisted — LARMLS
• 2025-08-20 Pending — LARMLS
• 2025-08-13 Price Changed $44,900 LARMLS
• 2025-07-30 Listed $54,900 LARMLS

Property tax history

+7.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,693 · +16.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.