1156 Espejo Molina Rd · Rio Bravo, TX 78046

$110,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 860 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 147 Days on market

Built 1987 9,919 sqft lot $128/sqft · 101% above area Est $86k · 28% over ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.8/30.0
• DSCR +9.8/10.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming and versatile property with endless potential! This unique setup features a cozy main structure with an additional detached building(Non-main), offering flexibility for rental income or guest space. Both structures sit on a spacious lot with ample outdoor space, perfect for customization or future improvements. The homes feature reliable siding and a simple, functional layout ready for your personal touch. Whether you’re an investor or looking for a property with multi-use options.

Key facts

• Detached building
• Multi-use options
• Outdoor space

Tags

• DETACHED BUILDING
• RENTAL INCOME
• OUTDOOR SPACE
• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• MULTI-USE OPTIONS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $337 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $110k).
• Recommended offer: $97k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#1,341 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, schools F, amenities F.
• United ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #568 of 826 in TX (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 482 active listings in the ZIP; 1,448 units permitted in Webb County in 2024 (245 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $761 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Webb County population projected at +23% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 147 days — a 12% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; major wind risk, 72% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $96,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 147 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.13%
• DSCR: 1.58
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $85,935
• List price: $110,000
• Delta: 28.00%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.12×
• Total profit: $3,657
• Equity at exit: $16,401

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.00×
• Total profit: $30,889
• Equity at exit: $9,511

Cash invested: $30,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78046

• Home prices YoY: -13.0%
• Active inventory: 482
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,378 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax from tax record: −$129 /mo · $1,550/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$289
• Net cashflow: $337

Break-even live

Break-even rent $952

Max offer price $110,000

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,500
• Closing costs: $3,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $110,000 Active 147 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $110,000 Active 146 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $110,000 Active 145 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $110,000 Active 144 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $110,000 Active 143 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $110,000 Active 141 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $110,000 Active 140 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $110,000 Active 138 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $110,000 Active 137 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $110,000 Active 136 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $110,000 Active 135 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $110,000 Active 131 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $110,000 Active 130 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $110,000 Active 129 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $110,000 Active 128 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $110,000 Active 127 DOM
17. 2026-04-01
    price $110,000 503-char remark

    Show marketing remark (503 chars)

    Charming and versatile property with endless potential! This unique setup features a cozy main structure with an additional detached building(Non-main), offering flexibility for rental income or guest space. Both structures sit on a spacious lot with ample outdoor space, perfect for customization or future improvements. The homes feature reliable siding and a simple, functional layout ready for your personal touch. Whether you’re an investor or looking for a property with multi-use options.

18. 2026-01-23
    listed $115,000 Active 503-char remark

    Show marketing remark (503 chars)

    Charming and versatile property with endless potential! This unique setup features a cozy main structure with an additional detached building(Non-main), offering flexibility for rental income or guest space. Both structures sit on a spacious lot with ample outdoor space, perfect for customization or future improvements. The homes feature reliable siding and a simple, functional layout ready for your personal touch. Whether you’re an investor or looking for a property with multi-use options.

19. 2012-09-20
    soldstatus
20. 2009-08-12
    soldstatus
21. 2003-01-10
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,550 · $129/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,013 · $168/mo
• Expected delta: +$463/yr (+$39/mo · 29.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 51% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥110°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 72% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,540
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,162
• − Property taxes: −$1,550
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,323
• − Management: −$1,323
• − Depreciation: −$3,200
• Taxable income: $2,432
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$584
• After-tax cash flow: $3,461/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: United ISD
• NCES district ID: 4843650
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -36.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $47,780
• Composite: 28.02/100
• National rank: #6848
• State rank: #568 of 826 in TX

Livability — Rio Bravo

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #1341
• US rank: #23136

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rio Bravo, TX
• Population (ZIP): 71,965

Population outlook (Webb County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 301,387 people
• By 2030: 316,307 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 345,636 · +14.7%
• By 2050: 370,647 · +23.0%
• By 2075: 413,907 · +37.3%
• By 2100: 416,458 · +38.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 97% Two or more races 53% White 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 92%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 9% English-only · Spanish 91%

Political lean MEDSL · Webb

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.5% · R 50.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -45.6pp toward R · 2008: 43.4pp · 2024: -2.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.2 2020: D+23.3 2016: D+51.6 2012: D+54.0 2008: D+43.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -29.36%
• Current HPI: 196.8153
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $110,000 LAOR
• 2026-01-23 Listed $115,000 LAOR
• 2012-09-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2009-08-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2003-01-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,550 · -2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.