256 Hammond Hill Rd · Dover Plains, NY 12522

$499,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,900 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 44 Days on market

Built 1970 3.00 ac lot $263/sqft · at area comps Est $487k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.6/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +6.4/15.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Looking for a serene, quiet home to call your own? This property is just that! Located at the top of a long, private driveway and sitting on three acres. This house offers an open floor plan, with four bedrooms, two full baths and a front deck perfect for entertaining. Right off of Route 343, close to Rte 22 and a five mile drive to the Metro North. This home offers endless possibilities, a must see! Additional Information: HeatingFuel:Oil Above Ground,ParkingFeatures:1 Car Detached,

Key facts

• 3 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1970

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 6 parking spaces total; Detached garage (2 spaces); Driveway
• Utilities: Central Hudson electric service; Septic tank; Cable available and connected; Electricity available and connected; Phone available; Water available and connected
• Home design: Single family residence
• Construction: Block construction; Partial attic; Crawl space basement
• Exterior features: Block construction; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Oven; Refrigerator; Kitchen island; Eat-in kitchen; Chef's kitchen
• Bedrooms: Includes a bedroom on the first floor
• Flooring: Hardwood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Hydro air heating; Oil heating; Central air conditioning; 2 fireplaces
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bathroom; Built-in features; Cathedral ceilings; Chef's kitchen; Eat-in kitchen; Kitchen island; Open floorplan; Open kitchen; Primary bathroom; Recessed lighting; Washer/dryer hookup
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $499k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $390 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $471k (5.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $471k (5.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#818 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A, cost of living B; Watch: commute C-, housing D+, amenities F.
• Dover Union Free School District (rural): math 44% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #433 of 590 in NY (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Dover Elementary School (math 33% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,509 of 2,108 statewide, top 72%, 296 students, 71% FRL); Dover Middle School (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #418 of 729 statewide, top 59%, 301 students, 68% FRL); Dover High School (math 92% / reading 74%, grade A, #435 of 1,100 statewide, top 40%, 467 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools average 66% FRL vs 38% district-wide (29 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 38 active listings in the ZIP; 620 units permitted in Dutchess County in 2024 (242 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $53k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $50k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Dutchess County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $140k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$86k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($484k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $395k; 26% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $471,288 (5.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.35%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $486,898
• List price: $499,000
• Delta: 2.49%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.12×
• Total profit: $296,584
• Equity at exit: $449,539

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.4%
• Equity multiple: 7.11×
• Total profit: $853,877
• Equity at exit: $969,447

Cash invested: $139,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12522

• Home prices YoY: 17.7%
• Active inventory: 38
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,713 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,617
• Tax from tax record: −$509 /mo · $6,106/yr
• Insurance: −$208
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$990
• Net cashflow: $390

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,220

Max offer price $499,000

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $672	-5% $531	+0% $390	+5% $248	+10% $107
Rent	-10% $17	-5% $203	+0% $390	+5% $576	+10% $762
Rate	-1.0pp $641	-0.5pp $517	base $390	+0.5pp $260	+1.0pp $129

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $124,750
• Closing costs: $14,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $499,000 Active 44 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $499,000 Active 42 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $499,000 Active 41 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $499,000 Active 40 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $499,000 Active 39 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $499,000 Active 37 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $499,000 Active 36 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $499,000 Active 33 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $499,000 Active 32 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $499,000 Active 31 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $499,000 Active 30 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $499,000 Active 27 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $499,000 Active 26 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $499,000 Active 25 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $499,000 Active 24 DOM
16. 2026-05-19
    price $499,000 3154-char remark
17. 2026-05-07
    listed $529,000 Active 3154-char remark
18. 2024-02-02
    historical
19. 2023-10-06
    soldstatus $395,000 Closed

    Show marketing remark (488 chars)

    Looking for a serene, quiet home to call your own? This property is just that! Located at the top of a long, private driveway and sitting on three acres. This house offers an open floor plan, with four bedrooms, two full baths and a front deck perfect for entertaining. Right off of Route 343, close to Rte 22 and a five mile drive to the Metro North. This home offers endless possibilities, a must see! Additional Information: HeatingFuel:Oil Above Ground,ParkingFeatures:1 Car Detached,

20. 2023-07-31
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (488 chars)

    Looking for a serene, quiet home to call your own? This property is just that! Located at the top of a long, private driveway and sitting on three acres. This house offers an open floor plan, with four bedrooms, two full baths and a front deck perfect for entertaining. Right off of Route 343, close to Rte 22 and a five mile drive to the Metro North. This home offers endless possibilities, a must see! Additional Information: HeatingFuel:Oil Above Ground,ParkingFeatures:1 Car Detached,

21. 2023-06-01
    listed $399,900 Active

    Show marketing remark (488 chars)

    Looking for a serene, quiet home to call your own? This property is just that! Located at the top of a long, private driveway and sitting on three acres. This house offers an open floor plan, with four bedrooms, two full baths and a front deck perfect for entertaining. Right off of Route 343, close to Rte 22 and a five mile drive to the Metro North. This home offers endless possibilities, a must see! Additional Information: HeatingFuel:Oil Above Ground,ParkingFeatures:1 Car Detached,

22. 2016-03-16
    historical Withdrawn
23. 2016-03-16
    historical
24. 2015-12-08
    price
25. 2015-09-28
    listed Active
26. 2015-09-28
    listed $325,000
27. 2015-09-28
    listed $325,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,106 · $509/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,270 · $606/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,164/yr (+$97/mo · 19.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 4 d/yr ≥94°F today · 9 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 13% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $56,555
• − Mortgage interest: −$27,952
• − Property taxes: −$6,106
• − Insurance: −$2,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,524
• − Management: −$4,524
• − Depreciation: −$14,516
• Taxable loss: −$3,563
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$855
• After-tax cash flow: $5,531/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dover Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3609210
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $58,267
• Composite: 40.25/100
• National rank: #3768
• State rank: #433 of 590 in NY

Livability — Dover Plains

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #818
• US rank: #15806

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C- Cost of living B Crime A Employment D- Housing D+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,074

Population outlook (Dutchess County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 291,768 people
• By 2030: 287,131 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 274,881 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 259,971 · -10.9%
• By 2075: 235,366 · -19.3%
• By 2100: 208,786 · -28.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 10% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Scandinavian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 4% Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Dutchess

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.4) · D 52.7% · R 47.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.2pp toward R · 2008: 8.6pp · 2024: 5.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.4 2020: D+9.6 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+6.6 2008: D+8.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 39.50%
• Current HPI: 262.8121
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+53.5% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $499,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-07 Listed $529,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-02-02 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-10-06 Sold (MLS) $395,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-07-31 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-06-01 Listed $399,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-03-16 Delisted — HGMLS
• 2016-03-16 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-12-08 Price Changed — HGMLS
• 2015-09-28 Listed — HGMLS
• 2015-09-28 Listed $325,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-09-28 Listed $325,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,106 · +1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.