2838 Lakeside Dr · Poplar Bluff, MO 63901

$149,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,232 sqft · Other public records · 83 Days on market

Built 1974 0.26 ac lot $122/sqft · 26% above area Est $239k · 37% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

2838 Lakeside Dr., Poplar Bluff, Mo 63901 $149,900 3 bed/2.5 bath could be a four bed very easy. Full finished basement. A few cosmetic issues. In a very good area located on the North side of Poplar Bluff. Minutes away from schools, grocery stores, and hospitals. 1232sf +/- on main floor, 1248sf +/- in the basement.

Key facts

• 0.26 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1974

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath other listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $60 ($722/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $123k (18.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $123k (18.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 4.4% in Poplar Bluff — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#143 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Poplar Bluff R-I (town): math 38% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #127 of 324 in MO (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 274 active listings in the ZIP; 63 units permitted in Butler County in 2024 (48 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Butler County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $122,593 (18.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.72%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $239,475
• List price: $149,900
• Delta: -37.40%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-20,520
• Equity at exit: $22,351

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-13,180
• Equity at exit: $12,961

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63901

• Home prices YoY: -22.4%
• Active inventory: 274
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,226 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$60 /mo · $718/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$257
• Net cashflow: $60

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,150

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 90%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-03-04
   listed $149,900 Active 320-char remark

   Show marketing remark (320 chars)

   2838 Lakeside Dr., Poplar Bluff, Mo 63901 $149,900 3 bed/2.5 bath could be a four bed very easy. Full finished basement. A few cosmetic issues. In a very good area located on the North side of Poplar Bluff. Minutes away from schools, grocery stores, and hospitals. 1232sf +/- on main floor, 1248sf +/- in the basement.

2. 2006-01-03
   soldstatus
3. 1998-03-01
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $718 · $60/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,454 · $121/mo
• Expected delta: +$736/yr (+$61/mo · 102.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,711
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$718
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,177
• − Management: −$1,177
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable loss: −$1,867
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$448
• After-tax cash flow: $1,170/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Poplar Bluff R-I
• NCES district ID: 2925450
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $35,761
• Composite: 35.17/100
• National rank: #5001
• State rank: #127 of 324 in MO

Livability — Poplar Bluff

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #143
• US rank: #8135

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Poplar Bluff, MO
• City population: 34,920
• Population (ZIP): 34,920

Population outlook (Butler County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 42,648 people
• By 2030: 42,329 · -0.7%
• By 2040: 41,498 · -2.7%
• By 2050: 40,308 · -5.5%
• By 2075: 36,168 · -15.2%
• By 2100: 28,893 · -32.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 6% Black 5% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Butler

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.8) · D 17.7% · R 81.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.4pp toward R · 2008: -37.4pp · 2024: -63.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.8 2020: R+62.3 2016: R+61.6 2012: R+46.7 2008: R+37.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -50.64%
• Current HPI: 175.3008
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-04 Listed $149,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-01-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1998-03-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2024): $718 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.