3615 S Lundy Ave · Tucson, AZ 85713

$299,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,736 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 118 Days on market

Built 1969 6,534 sqft lot $173/sqft · at area comps Est $313k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.1/30.0
• ARV discount +9.4/15.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks MLS

Fantastic du-plex with steady rental activity, clean units, and space for parking. Each unit is a 2 bedroom/1 bath accompanied with a generous living space at the entry. Floorplan flows to kitchen. Each unit has their own backyard space, laundry, and side yard for parking for at least 2 cars - each unit. Located minutes from I-10 - this multi unit is ready to go.

Key facts

• Parking
• Side yard
• Clean units

Tags

• CLEAN UNITS
• BACKYARD SPACE
• LAUNDRY
• SIDE YARD
• PARKING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $100 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $242k (19.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $242k (19.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 3.7% in Tucson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#17 in AZ, #4,502 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, employment D-.
• Tucson Unified District (4403) (urban): math 14% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #190 of 249 in AZ (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Hollinger K-8 School (math 20% / reading 22%, grade F, #722 of 1,109 statewide, top 66%, 687 students, 78% FRL); Utterback Middle School (math 6% / reading 17%, grade F, #180 of 218 statewide, top 83%, 263 students, 80% FRL); Pueblo High School (math 12% / reading 17%, grade F, #267 of 381 statewide, top 72%, 1,831 students, 65% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 267 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,418/mo this rent would consume 55% of the median local household income ($53k/yr) (locally 1517% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 118 days — a 9% lower offer ($273k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $241,800 (19.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 118 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.43%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $313,296
• List price: $299,900
• Delta: -4.28%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3613-3615 S Belmar Ave	0.13mi	4/2.0	1,608 (-7%)	3mo	$337,500	$210	79
528 W Columbia St	0.54mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,621 (-7%)	4mo	$310,000	$191	51
501 W Pennsylvania Dr	0.70mi	5/3.0 (+1)	1,882 (+8%)	2mo	$420,000	$223	42
3820 S 3rd Ave	0.64mi	4/4.0	1,956 (+13%)	0mo	$379,000	$194	40
3819 S 16th Ave	0.49mi	5/3.0 (+1)	1,882 (+8%)	20mo	$425,000	$226	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-48,930
• Equity at exit: $44,716

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-60,507
• Equity at exit: $25,930

Cash invested: $83,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85713

• Home prices YoY: -24.5%
• Rents YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 267
• Price-to-rent: 20.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,418 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$112 /mo · $1,346/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$508
• Net cashflow: $100

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,291

Max offer price $299,900

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $270	-5% $185	+0% $100	+5% $16	+10% $-69
Rent	-10% $-91	-5% $5	+0% $100	+5% $196	+10% $291
Rate	-1.0pp $251	-0.5pp $177	base $100	+0.5pp $23	+1.0pp $-56

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	1	$2,418
Total (2 units)			$2,418

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,975
• Closing costs: $8,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3420 S Clark Ave Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,495	$1.36	13d	1	0.25mi
4213 S Lundy Ave Tucson, AZ	3.0	1.0	1368	$1,600	$1.17	25d	1	0.50mi
251 W 38th St Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1050	$1,800	$1.71	16d	1	0.61mi
251 W 38th St Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1050	$1,700	$1.62	46d	1	0.61mi
251 W 38th St Tucson, AZ	4.0	2.0	1880	$2,400	$1.28	5d	1	0.61mi
4050 S Kostka Ave Tucson, AZ	3.0	1.0	1568	$1,895	$1.21	3d	1	0.96mi
1074 W Pennsylvania St Tucson, AZ	4.0	2.0	1276	$1,395	$1.09	16d	1	0.97mi
202 E 32nd St Tucson, AZ	3.0	1.0	1251	$1,599	$1.28	4d	1	1.16mi
202 E 32nd St Tucson, AZ	3.0	1.0	1251	$1,599	$1.28	25d	1	1.16mi
2640 S Cottonwood Ln Unit 13 Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,395	$1.16	45d	1	1.18mi
808 E 35th St Unit 1 Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1079	$1,475	$1.37	18d	1	1.27mi
808 E 35th St Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1079	$1,525	$1.41	25d	1	1.27mi
838 E 35th St Tucson, AZ	4.0	2.0	1770	$1,865	$1.05	13d	1	1.30mi
2805 S Park Ave Tucson, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	1236	$2,350	$1.90	3d	6	1.32mi
4608 S Fremont Ave Tucson, AZ	4.0	2.0	1800	$1,850	$1.03	45d	1	1.45mi
425 W 26th St Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,450	$1.16	45d	1	1.47mi
135 W 26th St Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1700	$2,450	$1.44	45d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $299,900 Active 118 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,900 Active 115 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,900 Active 114 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,900 Active 113 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,900 Active 112 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,900 Active 110 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $299,900 Active 107 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,900 Active 106 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $299,900 Active 105 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $299,900 Active 104 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $299,900 Active 101 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $299,900 Active 100 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,900 Active 99 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,900 Active 98 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,900 Active 97 DOM
16. 2026-05-11
    status Active 366-char remark

    Show marketing remark (366 chars)

    Fantastic du-plex with steady rental activity, clean units, and space for parking. Each unit is a 2 bedroom/1 bath accompanied with a generous living space at the entry. Floorplan flows to kitchen. Each unit has their own backyard space, laundry, and side yard for parking for at least 2 cars - each unit. Located minutes from I-10 - this multi unit is ready to go.

17. 2026-04-08
    historical Active Contingent 366-char remark

    Show marketing remark (366 chars)

    Fantastic du-plex with steady rental activity, clean units, and space for parking. Each unit is a 2 bedroom/1 bath accompanied with a generous living space at the entry. Floorplan flows to kitchen. Each unit has their own backyard space, laundry, and side yard for parking for at least 2 cars - each unit. Located minutes from I-10 - this multi unit is ready to go.

18. 2026-03-11
    status Active 366-char remark

    Show marketing remark (366 chars)

    Fantastic du-plex with steady rental activity, clean units, and space for parking. Each unit is a 2 bedroom/1 bath accompanied with a generous living space at the entry. Floorplan flows to kitchen. Each unit has their own backyard space, laundry, and side yard for parking for at least 2 cars - each unit. Located minutes from I-10 - this multi unit is ready to go.

19. 2026-03-06
    historical Active Contingent 366-char remark

    Show marketing remark (366 chars)

    Fantastic du-plex with steady rental activity, clean units, and space for parking. Each unit is a 2 bedroom/1 bath accompanied with a generous living space at the entry. Floorplan flows to kitchen. Each unit has their own backyard space, laundry, and side yard for parking for at least 2 cars - each unit. Located minutes from I-10 - this multi unit is ready to go.

20. 2026-02-23
    listed $299,900 Active 366-char remark

    Show marketing remark (366 chars)

    Fantastic du-plex with steady rental activity, clean units, and space for parking. Each unit is a 2 bedroom/1 bath accompanied with a generous living space at the entry. Floorplan flows to kitchen. Each unit has their own backyard space, laundry, and side yard for parking for at least 2 cars - each unit. Located minutes from I-10 - this multi unit is ready to go.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,346 · $112/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,979 · $165/mo
• Expected delta: +$634/yr (+$53/mo · 47.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,016
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,799
• − Property taxes: −$1,346
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,321
• − Management: −$2,321
• − Depreciation: −$8,724
• Taxable loss: −$3,995
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$959
• After-tax cash flow: $2,164/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tucson Unified District (4403)
• NCES district ID: 0408800
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $40,962
• Composite: 15.78/100
• National rank: #9270
• State rank: #190 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Tucson

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #17
• US rank: #4502

Category grades

Amenities B Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tucson, AZ
• County: Pima County · 1,012,107 people
• City population: 839,336
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 46,439
• Household income: $53,152
• Rent vs Own: 37.2% rent · 62.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1517.0

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 70% Two or more races 30% White 21% Native American 5% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 67%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Lithuanian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 49% English-only · Spanish 49%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -107.07%
• Current HPI: 329.8338
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.21%
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Relisted — MLSSAZ
• 2026-04-08 Contingent — MLSSAZ
• 2026-03-11 Relisted — MLSSAZ
• 2026-03-06 Contingent — MLSSAZ
• 2026-02-23 Listed $299,900 MLSSAZ

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,346 · +4.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.