419 Mary St · Maricopa, CA 93252

$135,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 892 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 95 Days on market

Built 1925 5,662 sqft lot $151/sqft · 10% below area Est $150k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.5/30.0
• ARV discount +11.9/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• Appreciation +3.8/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.6/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

What a great active investment or personal home for your buyers. Unbeatable price! Shows as a 2/1 but extra room for office or bedroom so basically 3/1 as well as accessory building out back with unfinished bath. Some sweat equity needed but what a great reward once you're done! Tenant is in place on a month-to-month lease at $1100/mo.

Key facts

• 5,662 sq ft lot
• Built 1925
• Listed 95 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $440 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $135k).
• Recommended offer: $123k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#1,049 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Maricopa Unified (rural): math 10% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #1,302 of 1,400 in CA (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 27 active listings in the ZIP; 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.4%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-2.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 95 days — a 9% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $90k; list at $135k implies a 50% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→11/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $122,850 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 95 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.98%
• DSCR: 1.62
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $149,668
• List price: $135,000
• Delta: -9.80%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
417 Broadway	0.05mi	3/1.0 (+1)	976 (+9%)	10mo	$185,000	$190	69
421 Broadway	0.06mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,014 (+14%)	2mo	$140,000	$138	68
432 S Kern St	0.20mi	2/2.0	948 (+6%)	12mo	$226,300	$239	66

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.38% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.26×
• Total profit: $9,698
• Equity at exit: $23,878

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.26×
• Total profit: $47,643
• Equity at exit: $18,215

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93252

• Home prices YoY: -1.7%
• Active inventory: 27
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,684 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax from tax record: −$126 /mo · $1,513/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$354
• Net cashflow: $440

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,127

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 69%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $135,000 Active 95 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $135,000 Active 94 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $135,000 Active 93 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $135,000 Active 92 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $135,000 Active 90 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $135,000 Active 89 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $135,000 Active 87 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $135,000 Active 86 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $135,000 Active 85 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $135,000 Active 84 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $135,000 Active 81 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $135,000 Active 80 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $135,000 Active 79 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $135,000 Active 78 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $135,000 Active 77 DOM
16. 2026-03-14
    listed $135,000 Active 337-char remark

    Show marketing remark (337 chars)

    What a great active investment or personal home for your buyers. Unbeatable price! Shows as a 2/1 but extra room for office or bedroom so basically 3/1 as well as accessory building out back with unfinished bath. Some sweat equity needed but what a great reward once you're done! Tenant is in place on a month-to-month lease at $1100/mo.

17. 2023-05-05
    soldstatus $90,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,513 · $126/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,513 · $126/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 5 d/yr ≥101°F today · 11 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 16 unhealthy d/yr today · 21 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,214
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$1,513
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,617
• − Management: −$1,617
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable income: $3,302
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$792
• After-tax cash flow: $4,493/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Maricopa Unified
• NCES district ID: 0623820
• Math proficiency: 10% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $37,246
• Composite: 15.98/100
• National rank: #14303
• State rank: #1302 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Maricopa

• Score: 51/100
• State rank: #1049
• US rank: #25155

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime C+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Maricopa, CA
• Population (ZIP): 1,429

Population outlook (Kern County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 947,286 people
• By 2030: 978,984 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,045,018 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 1,105,232 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 1,229,538 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 1,238,059 · +30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 14% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31%
• Common ancestry: Scottish 3% Iranian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 21% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kern

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.2% · R 59.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.8pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+10.2 2016: R+15.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+17.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.38%
• Current HPI: 141.0367
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+50.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-14 Listed $135,000 GEMLS
• 2023-05-05 Sold (Public Records) $90,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,513 · +0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.