4176 Mapleleaf Dr · Fort McKinley, OH 45416

$99,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 960 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 40 Days on market

Built 1958 7,841 sqft lot $104/sqft · at area comps Est $96k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.5/30.0
• DSCR +9.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.1/10.0
• ARV discount +5.6/15.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautifully updated ranch style home! * New paint. * Brand new carpet in master bedroom. * Brand new vinyl plank flooring in other two bedrooms. * Updated bathroom. * New tub. * New sink. * New vanity. * New flooring. * Dimensional roof shingles replaced August 2020. * Additional cabinets and counter top installed in kitchen. * Insulated vinyl windows. * Furnace approx 5 years old. * Front covered patio 18 x 9. * Rear covered patio 17 x 12. * Spacious two car detached garage has lots of shelves and storage cabinets. Fenced back yard with double wide gate access. Property taxes shown are homestead amount.

Key facts

• Hardwood flooring
• Tile in kitchen
• Rear covered patio

Tags

• HARDWOOD FLOORING
• TILE IN KITCHEN
• LARGE FRONT COVERED PATIO
• REAR COVERED PATIO
• DETACHED POLE BARN
• FENCED BACKYARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Offered for sale

Exterior

• Parking: Barn
• Home design: Single-story home
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Residential lot (approximately 0.18 acres, 125 x 64)

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on main level (12 x 8); Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Main level bedroom (10 x 8); Main level bedroom (12 x 12)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Total of 5 rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $264 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $97k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Dayton City (urban): math 12% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #641 of 656 in OH (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 29 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 907 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (416 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($46k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $96,903 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.33%
• DSCR: 1.50
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $95,814
• List price: $99,900
• Delta: 4.26%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4081 Lobata Pl	0.14mi	3/1.0	960 (0%)	5mo	$93,000	$97	89
4370 Saylor St	0.22mi	3/1.0	960 (0%)	3mo	$86,750	$90	87
4247 Otis Dr	0.26mi	3/1.0	984 (+2%)	2mo	$120,000	$122	82
4082 Saylor St	0.16mi	3/1.0	1,032 (+8%)	7mo	$103,000	$100	75
3656 Detroit Ave	0.48mi	2/1.0 (-1)	967 (+1%)	3mo	$102,000	$105	69
4431 Wolf Rd	0.50mi	3/1.0	1,008 (+5%)	5mo	$112,900	$112	64
3539 Detroit Ave	0.42mi	3/1.5	1,023 (+7%)	5mo	$102,000	$100	63
4293 Thompson Dr	0.43mi	3/1.0	1,056 (+10%)	2mo	$58,850	$56	62
4333 Marlowe St	0.62mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,008 (+5%)	1mo	$150,000	$149	57
3538 Pittsburg Ave	0.51mi	2/1.0 (-1)	864 (-10%)	3mo	$109,900	$127	52
3678 Wilmore St	0.72mi	3/1.5	864 (-10%)	3mo	$131,900	$153	45
4214 Philadelphia Dr	0.72mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,056 (+10%)	4mo	$115,000	$109	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.02×
• Total profit: $650
• Equity at exit: $14,895

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.80×
• Total profit: $22,303
• Equity at exit: $8,638

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 45416

• Home prices YoY: -26.1%
• Active inventory: 29
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,212 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$128 /mo · $1,530/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$254
• Net cashflow: $264

Break-even live

Break-even rent $877

Max offer price $99,900

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $321	-5% $292	+0% $264	+5% $236	+10% $208
Rent	-10% $168	-5% $216	+0% $264	+5% $312	+10% $360
Rate	-1.0pp $314	-0.5pp $289	base $264	+0.5pp $238	+1.0pp $212

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 24 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4161 Mapleleaf Dr Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	960	$1,250	$1.30	3d	1	0.01mi
3858 Haney Rd Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	850	$825	$0.97	3d	1	0.31mi
4425 Thompson Dr Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	864	$1,150	$1.33	3d	1	0.43mi
4003 Whitestone Ct Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1096	$1,275	$1.16	44d	1	0.47mi
3711 Pittsburg Ave Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	800	$875	$1.09	44d	1	0.52mi
4132 Natchez Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	1.5	991	$1,250	$1.26	4d	1	0.74mi
4527 Channing Ln Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	946	$1,600	$1.69	44d	1	0.94mi
4365 Parkway Dr Trotwood, OH	2.0	1.0	600	$800	$1.33	44d	1	1.01mi
2609 Fairport Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,025	$1.02	3d	1	1.03mi
5610 N Main St Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	950	$1,100	$1.16	3d	1	1.04mi
2501 Fairport Ave Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	605	$850	$1.40	44d	1	1.06mi
4278 Catalpa Dr Unit 4 Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	800	$795	$0.99	44d	1	1.15mi
2408 Falmouth Ave Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	806	$950	$1.18	24d	1	1.18mi
62 W Nottingham Rd Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	765	$750	$0.98	24d	1	1.21mi
5200 Greencroft Dr Dayton, OH	2.0	2.0	1116	$1,200	$1.08	3d	1	1.23mi
5200 Greencroft Dr Dayton, OH	2.0	2.0	1115	$1,200	$1.08	22d	1	1.23mi
110 Cromwell Pl Unit 5 Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,099	$1.10	20d	1	1.26mi
110 Cromwell Pl Unit 2 Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	1000	$995	$0.99	22d	1	1.26mi
110 Cromwell Pl Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	1050	$1,100	$1.05	3d	1	1.26mi
519 Heather Dr Unit 1C Dayton, OH	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,095	$1.00	4d	1	1.28mi
132 Burgess Ave Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	900	$1,130	$1.26	3d	1	1.37mi
148 Burgess Ave Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	900	$1,200	$1.33	44d	1	1.38mi
69 Waverly Ave Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	900	$850	$0.94	4d	1	1.39mi
4303 Drowfield Dr Dayton, OH	2.0	1.5	1100	$1,500	$1.36	15d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $99,900 Pending 40 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,900 ActiveUnderContract 40 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,900 ActiveUnderContract 39 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,900 ActiveUnderContract 38 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $99,900 ActiveUnderContract 36 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,900 ActiveUnderContract 35 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $99,900 ActiveUnderContract 33 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,900 ActiveUnderContract 32 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,900 ActiveUnderContract 31 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $99,900 ActiveUnderContract 30 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $99,900 ActiveUnderContract 27 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,900 ActiveUnderContract 26 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,900 ActiveUnderContract 25 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,900 ActiveUnderContract 24 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,900 ActiveUnderContract 23 DOM
16. 2026-05-18
    historical ActiveUnderContract 617-char remark
17. 2026-05-04
    listed $99,900 Active 617-char remark
18. 2024-01-02
    soldstatus $25,157,500
19. 2020-11-17
    soldstatus $68,500
20. 2020-10-06
    soldstatus $68,500 Closed 618-char remark

    Show marketing remark (618 chars)

    Beautifully updated ranch style home! * New paint. * Brand new carpet in master bedroom. * Brand new vinyl plank flooring in other two bedrooms. * Updated bathroom. * New tub. * New sink. * New vanity. * New flooring. * Dimensional roof shingles replaced August 2020. * Additional cabinets and counter top installed in kitchen. * Insulated vinyl windows. * Furnace approx 5 years old. * Front covered patio 18 x 9. * Rear covered patio 17 x 12. * Spacious two car detached garage has lots of shelves and storage cabinets. Fenced back yard with double wide gate access. Property taxes shown are homestead amount.

21. 2020-10-06
    soldstatus $68,500 Sold 618-char remark

    Show marketing remark (618 chars)

    Beautifully updated ranch style home! * New paint. * Brand new carpet in master bedroom. * Brand new vinyl plank flooring in other two bedrooms. * Updated bathroom. * New tub. * New sink. * New vanity. * New flooring. * Dimensional roof shingles replaced August 2020. * Additional cabinets and counter top installed in kitchen. * Insulated vinyl windows. * Furnace approx 5 years old. * Front covered patio 18 x 9. * Rear covered patio 17 x 12. * Spacious two car detached garage has lots of shelves and storage cabinets. Fenced back yard with double wide gate access. Property taxes shown are homestead amount.

22. 2020-09-24
    historical Active/Pending 618-char remark

    Show marketing remark (618 chars)

    Beautifully updated ranch style home! * New paint. * Brand new carpet in master bedroom. * Brand new vinyl plank flooring in other two bedrooms. * Updated bathroom. * New tub. * New sink. * New vanity. * New flooring. * Dimensional roof shingles replaced August 2020. * Additional cabinets and counter top installed in kitchen. * Insulated vinyl windows. * Furnace approx 5 years old. * Front covered patio 18 x 9. * Rear covered patio 17 x 12. * Spacious two car detached garage has lots of shelves and storage cabinets. Fenced back yard with double wide gate access. Property taxes shown are homestead amount.

23. 2020-09-18
    listed $75,900 Active 618-char remark

    Show marketing remark (618 chars)

    Beautifully updated ranch style home! * New paint. * Brand new carpet in master bedroom. * Brand new vinyl plank flooring in other two bedrooms. * Updated bathroom. * New tub. * New sink. * New vanity. * New flooring. * Dimensional roof shingles replaced August 2020. * Additional cabinets and counter top installed in kitchen. * Insulated vinyl windows. * Furnace approx 5 years old. * Front covered patio 18 x 9. * Rear covered patio 17 x 12. * Spacious two car detached garage has lots of shelves and storage cabinets. Fenced back yard with double wide gate access. Property taxes shown are homestead amount.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,530 · $128/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,544 · $129/mo
• Expected delta: +$14/yr (+$1/mo · 0.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,538
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$1,530
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,163
• − Management: −$1,163
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable income: $1,680
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$403
• After-tax cash flow: $2,765/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dayton City
• NCES district ID: 3904384
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $28,688
• Composite: 12.94/100
• National rank: #9579
• State rank: #641 of 656 in OH

Livability — Fort McKinley

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fort McKinley, OH
• County: Montgomery County · 459,541 people
• Metro: Dayton-Kettering, OH
• Population (ZIP): 5,640
• Household income: $46,174
• Rent vs Own: 33.7% rent · 66.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 172.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 523,241 people
• By 2030: 514,948 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 493,378 · -5.7%
• By 2050: 469,639 · -10.2%
• By 2075: 418,360 · -20.0%
• By 2100: 353,315 · -32.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 62% White 18% Two or more races 15% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2%
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.8% · R 49.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.8pp toward R · 2008: 6.2pp · 2024: 0.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+1.2 2012: D+3.1 2008: D+6.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -61.27%
• Current HPI: 173.5938
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dayton-Kettering, OH
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+31.6% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Pending — Dayton MLS
• 2026-05-18 Contingent — Dayton MLS
• 2026-05-04 Listed $99,900 Dayton MLS
• 2024-01-02 Sold (Public Records) $25,157,500 Public Records
• 2020-11-17 Sold (Public Records) $68,500 Public Records
• 2020-10-06 Sold (MLS) $68,500 Dayton MLS
• 2020-10-06 Sold (MLS) $68,500 Dayton MLS
• 2020-09-24 Contingent — Dayton MLS
• 2020-09-18 Listed $75,900 Dayton MLS

Property tax history

+9.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,530 · -0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.