126 S Nelson St · Mitchell, OR 97750

$89,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 714 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 13 Days on market

Built 1910 4,791 sqft lot $125/sqft · 21% above area Est $85k · 5% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.9/30.0
• Appreciation +7.4/10.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• ARV discount +5.2/15.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Nestled in Mitchell, OR is this 2 bedroom, 1 bath cottage that would make an excellent little get-away retreat, personal home or a rental. A very charming front porch adds to this house's character that has so much potential. The perfect home base as you take part in all the recreational activities Wheeler County has to offer, between the Painted Hills, John Day River and thousands of acres of forest and wilderness. Mitchell itself has some unique services as well, Fuel Brewery, cafe, coffee, store, hardware and Mitchell's K-12 school district. Property has new water line plumbing from the meter throughout the house, new exterior paint, kitchen sink, shower, water heater, laminate floor thr

Key facts

• New exterior paint
• Front porch
• Water heater

Tags

• FRONT PORCH
• NEW WATER LINE PLUMBING
• NEW EXTERIOR PAINT
• KITCHEN SINK
• SHOWER
• WATER HEATER

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Property is not currently rented
• HOA & community: No CCRs

Exterior

• Parking: Gravel parking; no garage
• Security: Carbon monoxide detector(s); Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer; Public utilities available; Utility easements present
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Residential property
• Construction: Built in 1910; Frame construction; Foundation with pillars/posts/piers, stone and other
• Exterior features: Metal roof; Wood window frames; Corner lot; Paved road access; No irrigation; Property not in a flood zone (N/A)

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen; Eating area
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: No heating specified; No cooling
• Interior features: Fiberglass stall shower; Primary bedroom on the main floor

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $89k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $140 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $85k (4.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $85k (4.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#281 in OR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D-, crime F.
• Mitchell SD 55 (rural): math 12% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #170 of 183 in OR (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 7 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($615 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (4.7% local appreciation)).
• Wheeler County population projected at -37% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $85,247 (4.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.74%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $84,635
• List price: $89,000
• Delta: 5.16%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
126 S Nelson St	0.00mi	2/1.0	820 (+15%)	1mo	$89,000	$109	75

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.7% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.12×
• Total profit: $27,871
• Equity at exit: $48,823

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.10×
• Total profit: $77,238
• Equity at exit: $82,959

Cash invested: $24,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97750

• Home prices YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 7
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $852 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$467
• Tax from tax record: −$30 /mo · $357/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$179
• Net cashflow: $140

Break-even live

Break-even rent $675

Max offer price $89,000

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $190	-5% $165	+0% $140	+5% $115	+10% $90
Rent	-10% $73	-5% $106	+0% $140	+5% $174	+10% $207
Rate	-1.0pp $185	-0.5pp $163	base $140	+0.5pp $117	+1.0pp $93

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,250
• Closing costs: $2,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-10
   status Pending 829-char remark
2. 2026-04-27
   listed $89,000 Active 829-char remark
3. 2025-12-31
   historical
4. 2025-09-10
   price $99,999
5. 2025-07-26
   price $105,000
6. 2025-07-02
   listed $112,000 Active
7. 2022-04-21
   soldstatus $80,000
8. 2013-04-12
   soldstatus $20,066

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $357 · $30/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $863 · $72/mo
• Expected delta: +$506/yr (+$42/mo · 141.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major 27% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,230
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,985
• − Property taxes: −$357
• − Insurance: −$445
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$818
• − Management: −$818
• − Depreciation: −$2,589
• Taxable income: $216
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$52
• After-tax cash flow: $1,627/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mitchell SD 55
• NCES district ID: 4108280
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $35,779
• Composite: 24.87/100
• National rank: #13002
• State rank: #170 of 183 in OR

Livability — Mitchell

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #281
• US rank: #18843

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mitchell, OR
• Population (ZIP): 458

Population outlook (Wheeler County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,195 people
• By 2030: 1,087 · -9.0%
• By 2040: 878 · -26.5%
• By 2050: 756 · -36.7%
• By 2075: 643 · -46.2%
• By 2100: 638 · -46.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Polish 9% Slovak 5% Portuguese 5%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 11%

Political lean MEDSL · Wheeler

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.0) · D 24.3% · R 71.4% · Other 4.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.3pp toward R · 2008: -26.7pp · 2024: -47.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.0 2020: R+51.2 2016: R+54.3 2012: R+33.3 2008: R+26.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.70%
• Current HPI: 181.7789
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

+343.5% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Sold (Public Records) $89,000 Public Records
• 2026-05-27 Sold (MLS) $89,000 MLSCO
• 2026-05-10 Pending — MLSCO
• 2026-04-27 Listed $89,000 MLSCO
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — MLSCO
• 2025-09-10 Price Changed $99,999 MLSCO
• 2025-07-26 Price Changed $105,000 MLSCO
• 2025-07-02 Listed $112,000 MLSCO
• 2022-04-21 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records
• 2013-04-12 Sold (Public Records) $20,066 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $357 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.