1210 W Mansur Ave · Guthrie, OK 73044

$48,999

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,286 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 22 Days on market

Built 1935

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Investor special in the heart of historic Guthrie! Located near Banner Park, this 3-bedroom, 1-bath home sits in a fantastic location surrounded by the character and charm Guthrie is known for. Ready for a full remodel, this property offers endless potential as a profitable flip or an affordable fix-and-live opportunity. Bring your vision and transform this home into something special.

Key facts

• Near banner park
• Historic guthrie
• Full remodel

Tags

• HISTORIC GUTHRIE
• NEAR BANNER PARK
• FULL REMODEL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $49k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $882 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $49k).
• Recommended offer: $48k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 27.9% vs local median 3.0% in Guthrie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#15 in OK, #4,696 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Guthrie (town): math 24% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #119 of 270 in OK (top 44%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+12.2%/yr); 843 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 102 units permitted in Logan County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $339 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Logan County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1935 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $48,264 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1935 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 27.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 77.17%
• DSCR: 4.43
• GRM: 2.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $181,326
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1102 W Mansur Ave	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,256 (-2%)	6mo	$225,000	$179	83
517 N 11th Ave	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,368 (+6%)	4mo	$144,000	$105	80
1217 W Mansur Ave	0.03mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,244 (-3%)	7mo	$139,900	$112	78
1011 W Mansur Ave	0.14mi	3/1.0	1,152 (-10%)	1mo	$122,165	$106	76
316 N 11th St	0.12mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,352 (+5%)	7mo	$170,000	$126	71
1208 W Logan Ave	0.08mi	3/1.5	1,120 (-13%)	3mo	$165,000	$147	71
1423 W Logan Ave	0.18mi	3/1.0	1,152 (-10%)	7mo	$148,200	$129	69
702 N 17th St	0.41mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,320 (+3%)	3mo	$200,000	$152	65
1701 W College Ave	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,382 (+8%)	8mo	$195,000	$141	60
1817 W Mansur Ave	0.43mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,372 (+7%)	4mo	$159,900	$117	56
1823 W Noble Ave	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,120 (-13%)	1mo	$166,500	$149	51
128 SW 19th St	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,414 (+10%)	6mo	$209,400	$148	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 82.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.09×
• Total profit: $56,178
• Equity at exit: $7,306

10-year hold

• IRR: 87.1%
• Equity multiple: 12.47×
• Total profit: $157,343
• Equity at exit: $4,237

Cash invested: $13,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Oklahoma: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; strongly landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 73044

• Home prices YoY: -25.9%
• Rents YoY: 12.2%
• Active inventory: 843
• Price-to-rent: 2.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,499 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$257
• Tax from tax record: −$25 /mo · $298/yr
• Insurance: −$20
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$315
• Net cashflow: $882

Break-even live

Break-even rent $383

Max offer price $48,999

Occupancy floor 36%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,250
• Closing costs: $1,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
101 Harvest Rd Unit 114H Guthrie, OK	4.0	2.0	1525	$1,444	$0.95	1d	1	0.77mi
101 Harvest Rd Unit 109H Guthrie, OK	3.0	2.0	1312	$1,303	$0.99	1d	1	0.77mi
208 E Oklahoma Ave Guthrie, OK	2.0	2.0	1800	$1,450	$0.81	1d	1	0.96mi
2511 W Oklahoma Ave Guthrie, OK	3.0	2.0	1375	$1,200	$0.87	1d	1	0.96mi
409 E Hill Dr Guthrie, OK	3.0	2.0	1305	$1,445	$1.11	10d	1	1.18mi
520 E Springer Ave Guthrie, OK	2.0	2.0	1092	$1,300	$1.19	23d	1	1.25mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-15
   days on market $48,999 Active 22 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   days on market $48,999 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $48,999 Active 19 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $48,999 Active 16 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $48,999 Active 15 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $48,999 Active 14 DOM
7. 2026-06-05
   days on market $48,999 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $48,999 Active 10 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $48,999 Active 9 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $48,999 Active 8 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $48,999 Active 7 DOM
12. 2026-05-25
    listed $48,999 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OK · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $298 · $25/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $441 · $37/mo
• Expected delta: +$143/yr (+$12/mo · 48.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,992
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,745
• − Property taxes: −$298
• − Insurance: −$245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,439
• − Management: −$1,439
• − Depreciation: −$1,425
• Taxable income: $10,401
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,496
• After-tax cash flow: $8,091/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Guthrie
• NCES district ID: 4013560
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $45,370
• Composite: 20.79/100
• National rank: #8513
• State rank: #119 of 270 in OK

Livability — Guthrie

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #15
• US rank: #4696

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Guthrie, OK
• County: Logan County · 25,398 people
• City population: 25,398
• Metro: Oklahoma City, OK
• Population (ZIP): 25,398
• Household income: $72,288
• Rent vs Own: 20.3% rent · 79.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 397.0

Population outlook (Logan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 55,683 people
• By 2030: 60,011 · +7.8%
• By 2040: 68,071 · +22.2%
• By 2050: 75,815 · +36.2%
• By 2075: 94,749 · +70.2%
• By 2100: 108,057 · +94.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 8% Black 6% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Logan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+49.0) · D 24.4% · R 73.5% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: -37.4pp · 2024: -49.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+49.0 2020: R+47.1 2016: R+49.5 2012: R+44.8 2008: R+37.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -86.90%
• Current HPI: 247.9481
• Rent YoY: ▲ 12.22%
• Metro: Oklahoma City, OK
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.55%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OK)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	3	$48B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-25 Listed $48,999 FSBO.com

Property tax history

+5.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $298 · +49.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.