28626 Champion Oaks Dr · The Woodlands, TX 77354

$339,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,737 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 2018 0.55 ac lot Est $285k · 19% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +5.4/30.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.1/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

MOVE IN TEADY! NEW CONSTRUCTION, LOW TAXES, NO HOA, NO MUD. Spacious open concept w/ granite throughout, energy saving features, stainless appliances in AWARD WINNING MAGNOLIA ISD. FEATURES LARGE BACK PATIO. Quaint neighborhood, backs up to upscale Ascott Farms and Hidden Lake Estates. Walking distance to Smith Elementary. Minutes from Bear Branch Jr. High. Quick access to Tomball, The Woodlands and 2978. House is on 2 lots. Perfect for a shop or barn. +- half an acre.

Key facts

• Ravine
• Forest of trees
• Camping area

Tags

• PRIVATE CORNER
• FOREST OF TREES
• RAVINE
• TRAILS TO EXPLORE
• FIRE PIT
• CAMPING AREA

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lease not considered

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 2018; Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Construction: Brick, cement siding, and wood siding exterior
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Patio; Private yard; Corner lot; Ravine; Wooded yard; Side yard; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Disposal; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (first floor) — 15x13; Bedroom (first floor) — 12x10; Bedroom (first floor) — 12x10
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Double vanity; Granite counters; Kitchen/family room combo; Pantry; Tub with shower; Window treatments; Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $340k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-733 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $210k (38.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $206k (39.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $206k (39.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.7% vs local median 2.3% in The Woodlands — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 91/100 on livability (#1 in TX, #47 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living D-.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Cedric C Smith (math 48% / reading 42%, grade D-, #1,133 of 4,322 statewide, top 27%, 724 students, 55% FRL); Bear Branch J H (math 44% / reading 46%, grade D, #479 of 1,662 statewide, top 29%, 1,076 students, 37% FRL); Magnolia H S (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 2,248 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools at 41% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1604 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 10d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $36k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $34k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$58k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $205,988 (39.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.61% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.70%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.24%
• DSCR: 0.59
• GRM: 13.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $284,868
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
28831 Hidden Cove Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,705 (-2%)	2mo	$280,000	$164	85
9206 Hidden Lk E	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,814 (+4%)	3mo	$275,000	$152	79
28702 Champion Oaks Dr	0.04mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,908 (+10%)	3mo	$249,000	$131	74
9115 E Lakeside Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,694 (-2%)	11mo	$305,000	$180	73
28730 Hidden Cove Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,783 (+3%)	21mo	$305,000	$171	72
28622 Champion Oaks Dr	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,973 (+14%)	7mo	$265,000	$134	71
9214 Hidden Ct	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,687 (-3%)	11mo	$265,000	$157	71
9218 E Lakeside Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,563 (-10%)	2mo	$259,500	$166	69
9314 E Lakeside Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,867 (+8%)	13mo	$275,000	$147	66
28910 Champion Oaks Dr	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,850 (+6%)	15mo	$374,900	$203	64
28434 Champion Oaks Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,967 (+13%)	13mo	$365,000	$186	58
28906 Champion Oaks Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,483 (-15%)	10mo	$215,000	$145	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.40×
• Total profit: $133,051
• Equity at exit: $306,209

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.40×
• Total profit: $418,791
• Equity at exit: $660,351

Cash invested: $95,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1604
• Price-to-rent: 13.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,060 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,782
• Tax from tax record: −$436 /mo · $5,237/yr
• Insurance: −$142
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$433
• Net cashflow: $-733

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,988

Max offer price $210,383

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $84,975
• Closing costs: $10,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
29980 Farm to Market Road 2978 Unit 2162 Magnolia, TX	2.0	2.0	1177	$1,883	$1.60	4d	1	1.21mi
29980 Farm to Market Road 2978 Unit 2228 Magnolia, TX	2.0	2.0	1177	$1,875	$1.59	2d	1	1.21mi
29980 Farm to Market Road 2978 Unit 3228 Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1578	$2,328	$1.48	2d	1	1.21mi
9829 Glen Brook Ln Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.0	1637	$1,999	$1.22	2d	1	1.27mi
30006 Farm to Market Road 2978 Magnolia, TX	2.0	1.0	1088	$1,766	$1.62	43d	1	1.29mi
9733 Grosbeak Ln Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1302	$1,798	$1.38	43d	1	1.32mi
29980 Farm to Market Road 2978 Unit 3047 Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1578	$2,371	$1.50	10d	1	1.34mi
29980 Farm to Market Road 2978 Unit 2047 Magnolia, TX	2.0	2.0	1177	$1,918	$1.63	10d	1	1.34mi
29980 Farm to Market Road 2978 Unit 30017 Magnolia, TX	2.0	2.0	1177	$1,907	$1.62	10d	1	1.36mi
29980 Farm to Market Road 2978 Unit 30013 Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1578	$2,360	$1.50	10d	1	1.36mi
30000 FM 2978 Rd Magnolia, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–4.0	1175	$1,767	$1.50	3d	49	1.39mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-13
   days on market $339,900 Pending 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $339,900 Pending 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   statusdays on market $339,900 Pending 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $339,900 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $339,900 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $339,900 Active 2 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   remarks 681-char remark
8. 2026-06-02
   listed $339,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,237 · $436/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,220 · $518/mo
• Expected delta: +$984/yr (+$82/mo · 18.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,719
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,040
• − Property taxes: −$5,237
• − Insurance: −$1,700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,977
• − Management: −$1,977
• − Depreciation: −$9,888
• Taxable loss: −$15,100
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,624
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,174/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — The Woodlands

• Score: 91/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #47

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 106,505
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+44.6% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listed $339,900 HARMLS
• 2019-01-25 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2018-12-28 Pending — HARMLS
• 2018-11-02 Price Changed $225,000 HARMLS
• 2018-10-18 Price Changed $230,000 HARMLS
• 2018-10-01 Listed $235,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+33.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,237 · +113.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.