4080 Burke Hill Dr #4 · Ukiah, CA 95482

$47,500

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 720 sqft · Manufactured · 8 Days on market

Built 1972 ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Vineyard views, seasonal creeks, transportation convenience and more can be found at this hidden gem of an all age park. The original unit boasts 2 bedrooms; the East facing room with its own half bath, an open concept living room and kitchen area, and a large primary suit to the West. There is also a formal entry breeze way, dedicated laundry room, a rec room office or studio space, and a quaint backyard. This simple, clean home is situated near a seasonal flowing creek in a small family park with incredible easy access to Highway 101. This house is ready for you to make it a home.

Key facts

• Vineyard views
• Seasonal creeks
• Rec room office

Tags

• VINEYARD VIEWS
• SEASONAL CREEKS
• TRANSPORTATION CONVENIENCE
• FORMAL ENTRY BREEZE WAY
• DEDICATED LAUNDRY ROOM
• REC ROOM OFFICE

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Monthly land lease (space rent) applicable
• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Not a senior community; Located in Ukiah Mobile Estates (mobile home park)

Exterior

• Parking: 3 parking spaces; Side-by-side parking
• Utilities: Natural gas connected; Septic system
• Home design: Manufactured home in a park; Single wide; Original condition; Property faces east; Located in a land-lease park
• Construction: Gulfstream manufactured unit; Aluminum skirting
• Exterior features: Fenced backyard

Interior

• Kitchen: Free standing gas range; Free standing refrigerator; Range hood
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms total (1 full, 1 partial); Tub with shower over
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Ceiling fans; Evaporative cooler
• Interior features: Formal entry; Bonus room; Room addition; Space for a dining area in the kitchen; Synthetic kitchen countertops
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry room with electric hookup (hookups only)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $48k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $48k).
• Cap rate 33.1% vs local median 3.0% in Ukiah — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#425 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, employment D, crime D-.
• Ukiah Unified (town): math 24% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #1,018 of 1,400 in CA (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.1%/yr); 153 active listings in the ZIP; 8 units permitted in Mendocino County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $328 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mendocino County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.1% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $47,500

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.71% ✓
• Cap rate: 33.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 95.92%
• DSCR: 5.27
• GRM: 2.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.07% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 5.94×
• Total profit: $65,645
• Equity at exit: $7,082

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 13.70×
• Total profit: $168,963
• Equity at exit: $4,107

Cash invested: $13,300 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95482

• Rents YoY: 6.1%
• Active inventory: 153
• Price-to-rent: 2.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,761 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$249
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$59 /mo · $712/yr
• Insurance: −$20
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$370
• Net cashflow: $1,063

Break-even live

Break-even rent $416

Max offer price $47,500

Occupancy floor 35%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,875
• Closing costs: $1,425
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $47,500 Active 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $47,500 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $47,500 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $47,500 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $47,500 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $47,500 Active 2 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   remarks 589-char remark
8. 2026-06-12
   listed $47,500 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 8 d/yr ≥99°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 20 unhealthy d/yr today · 22 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,134
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,661
• − Property taxes: −$712
• − Insurance: −$238
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,691
• − Management: −$1,691
• − Depreciation: −$1,382
• Taxable income: $12,760
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,062
• After-tax cash flow: $9,694/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ukiah Unified
• NCES district ID: 0640300
• Math proficiency: 24% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $47,865
• Composite: 29.21/100
• National rank: #11858
• State rank: #1018 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Ukiah

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #425
• US rank: #14442

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living F Crime D- Employment D Housing C+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Mendocino County · 33,164 people
• City population: 33,164
• Metro: Ukiah, CA
• Population (ZIP): 33,164
• Household income: $69,772
• Rent vs Own: 44.7% rent · 55.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1349.0

Population outlook (Mendocino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 84,643 people
• By 2030: 82,138 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 76,402 · -9.7%
• By 2050: 71,759 · -15.2%
• By 2075: 61,454 · -27.4%
• By 2100: 50,130 · -40.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 18% Asian 3% Native American 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 25% Chinese 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Mendocino

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+26.8) · D 61.3% · R 34.5% · Other 4.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 42.8pp · 2024: 26.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+26.8 2020: D+35.8 2016: D+29.1 2012: D+37.6 2008: D+42.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -485.34%
• Current HPI: 164.6978
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.07%
• Metro: Ukiah, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-4.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $47,500 BAREIS
• 2026-01-27 Price Changed $30,000 BAREIS
• 2025-11-11 Price Changed $42,000 BAREIS
• 2025-10-16 Listed $49,900 BAREIS