1214 Elm Ct · Runaway Bay, TX 76426

$150,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,404 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 36 Days on market

Built 1970 3,267 sqft lot $107/sqft · 51% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.8/30.0
• DSCR +8.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• Appreciation +4.6/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Updated patio home near the lake at Runaway Bay. Updated doors, windows, paint, floor covering, vanities, kitchen cabinets have been refaced and new doors.

Key facts

• Patio home
• Updated windows
• Updated paint

Tags

• PATIO HOME
• NEAR THE LAKE
• UPDATED DOORS
• UPDATED WINDOWS
• UPDATED PAINT
• UPDATED FLOOR COVERING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Residential — Single Family Residence; Parcel/lot information available (less than 0.5 acre lot)
• Financial info: Listing accepts Cash, Conventional, FHA, and VA financing
• HOA & community: No association (no HOA)

Exterior

• Parking: Covered driveway parking; 2 covered/carport spaces
• Security: Smoke detectors installed
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Electricity connected; Not in a municipal utility district
• Home design: Single-family residence; Built in 1970; One story; Not attached to other units; Subdivision: Runaway Bay
• Construction: Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Covered front porch; Rear porch; Patio; Covered patio/porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Electric oven; Electric range; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on main level with ensuite bath, dual sinks, and walk-in closet; Two additional bedrooms on main level
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Decorative lighting; Eat-in kitchen; Open floorplan; Vaulted ceilings; Walk-in closets; 4 rooms total; One-level layout; One living area; One dining area
• Laundry & utility: Full-size washer/dryer area; Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $365 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $146k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 2.9% in Runaway Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#491 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Bridgeport ISD (rural): math 41% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #356 of 826 in TX (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Bridgeport El (523 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools average 70% FRL vs 50% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 338 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 460 units permitted in Wise County in 2024 (243 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.8%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wise County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-0.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,500 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.42%
• DSCR: 1.46
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $304,943
• List price: $150,000
• Delta: -50.81%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
813 Haynie Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,560 (+11%)	3mo	$289,900	$186	75
184 Cactus Canyon Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,430 (+2%)	2mo	$264,900	$185	64
111 Jim Walters Dr	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,603 (+14%)	12mo	$295,000	$184	57
171 Cactus Canyon Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,430 (+2%)	14mo	$250,000	$175	56
115 Jim Walters Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,591 (+13%)	17mo	$299,900	$188	54
217 Shady Oaks Dr	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,591 (+13%)	1mo	$269,000	$169	53
167 Cactus Canyon Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,430 (+2%)	18mo	$269,000	$188	53
503 Runaway Bay Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,604 (+14%)	3mo	$289,900	$181	47
416 Half Moon Way	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,585 (+13%)	10mo	$224,900	$142	43
188 Cactus Canyon Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,263 (-10%)	14mo	$244,650	$194	41
137 Cimmarron Trl	0.42mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,530 (+9%)	21mo	$299,900	$196	40
401 Koppes Ct	0.59mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,613 (+15%)	22mo	$219,999	$136	25

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.82% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.31×
• Total profit: $13,179
• Equity at exit: $37,505

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.31×
• Total profit: $54,963
• Equity at exit: $40,500

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76426

• Home prices YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 338
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,762 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$178 /mo · $2,135/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$370
• Net cashflow: $365

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,300

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 74%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1218 Chestnut Ct Runaway Bay, TX	2.0	2.0	1207	$1,700	$1.41	3d	1	0.04mi
1218 Chestnut Ct Runaway Bay, TX	2.0	1.5	1207	$1,700	$1.41	6d	1	0.04mi
1210 Chestnut Ct Unit 1 Runaway Bay, TX	2.0	2.5	1079	$1,800	$1.67	43d	1	0.05mi

Listing history 36 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $150,000 Active 36 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $150,000 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $150,000 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $150,000 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $150,000 Active 31 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $150,000 Active 30 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $150,000 Active 27 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $150,000 Active 26 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $150,000 Active 25 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $150,000 Active 22 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $150,000 Active 21 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $150,000 Active 20 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $150,000 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $150,000 Active 18 DOM
15. 2026-05-13
    listed $155,000 Active 264-char remark
16. 2026-05-12
    listed $155,000 Active 155-char remark

    Show marketing remark (155 chars)

    Updated patio home near the lake at Runaway Bay. Updated doors, windows, paint, floor covering, vanities, kitchen cabinets have been refaced and new doors.

17. 2024-01-13
    historical
18. 2023-09-12
    price $161,000
19. 2023-09-03
    status Active
20. 2023-08-21
    status Pending
21. 2023-08-18
    historical Active Option Contract
22. 2023-07-11
    listed $165,000 Active
23. 2023-05-26
    historical Active Option Contract
24. 2023-05-11
    price $165,000
25. 2023-04-14
    price $175,000
26. 2023-04-03
    price $179,999
27. 2023-03-28
    price $185,000
28. 2023-03-18
    price $199,999
29. 2023-03-06
    price $215,000
30. 2023-02-28
    listed $230,000 Active
31. 2019-02-22
    soldstatus Sold
32. 2019-02-22
    soldstatus
33. 2019-02-07
    status Pending
34. 2019-02-01
    listed $97,500 Active
35. 1993-03-03
    soldstatus
36. 1992-07-13
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,135 · $178/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,745 · $229/mo
• Expected delta: +$610/yr (+$51/mo · 28.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 17% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,141
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$2,135
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,691
• − Management: −$1,691
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $2,108
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$506
• After-tax cash flow: $3,872/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bridgeport ISD
• NCES district ID: 4811340
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $51,866
• Composite: 35.51/100
• National rank: #4913
• State rank: #356 of 826 in TX

Livability — Runaway Bay

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #491
• US rank: #9730

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Runaway Bay, TX
• County: Wise County · 49,037 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 11,632
• Household income: $92,130
• Rent vs Own: 25.0% rent · 75.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 74.0

Population outlook (Wise County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 71,620 people
• By 2030: 75,858 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 83,908 · +17.2%
• By 2050: 90,717 · +26.7%
• By 2075: 107,583 · +50.2%
• By 2100: 114,996 · +60.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (60%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 9% Black 2% Asian 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 27%

Political lean MEDSL · Wise

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+70.0) · D 14.7% · R 84.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.3pp toward R · 2008: -55.7pp · 2024: -70.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+70.0 2020: R+68.2 2016: R+69.9 2012: R+67.5 2008: R+55.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.82%
• Current HPI: 417.89
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+53.8% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Price Changed $150,000 NTREIS
• 2026-05-13 Listed $155,000 NTREIS
• 2026-05-12 Listed $155,000 FSBO.com
• 2024-01-13 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2023-09-12 Price Changed $161,000 NTREIS
• 2023-09-03 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2023-08-21 Pending — NTREIS
• 2023-08-18 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2023-07-11 Listed $165,000 NTREIS
• 2023-05-26 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2023-05-11 Price Changed $165,000 NTREIS
• 2023-04-14 Price Changed $175,000 NTREIS
• 2023-04-03 Price Changed $179,999 NTREIS
• 2023-03-28 Price Changed $185,000 NTREIS
• 2023-03-18 Price Changed $199,999 NTREIS
• 2023-03-06 Price Changed $215,000 NTREIS
• 2023-02-28 Listed $230,000 NTREIS
• 2019-02-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-02-22 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2019-02-07 Pending — NTREIS
• 2019-02-01 Listed $97,500 NTREIS
• 1993-03-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1992-07-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,135 · -6.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.